After this latest, reassuring inflation reading, markets were pricing in an 84% chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates at its September meeting, up from 73% a day prior, according to CME FedWatch.
“A September rate cut should be a done deal at this point,” said Lazard chief market strategist Ron Temple.
My motto: When logic says one thing and The Amazing Trader says the opposite, don’t ignore what THE AMAZING TRADER is saying
What’s it saying
In this case, falling blue lines are saying the intra-day risk had shifted to the downside. Those looking to buy the dip are trading the last episode when a new one had begun. Note I said intra-day as the dollar is still down on the day except vs the CAD,
Similar patterns are in other currencies as well after the CPI dollar dive ran out of steam.
Point of control in Vix futures is 12.98 and if the selling creeping in sticks it could hit 12.65 which is a place where there could be an added argument to take the money on Euro bids intraday. Noting a “whale” order in my Level II, so if it isn’t a screen or a hedge its an order.