Contact us

[SF Monedge]

UsdCad 3620 (which is current market) is the point of control in spot, with 7350 the point of control in futures for Canadian Dollar (which is current market).  Regardless of how markets behave up or down, these price levels will be revisited in August.  My preference is the sell side in spot in the 3680-90 zone at present if/when seen.

[SF Monedge]

If you are a participant in EurChf (Eur vs Swiss Franc) my sentiment is to stay with the buy side if it nears the 9720 area.  Selling the pair from current values or a bit higher would be a contra-position.  That said, I have the same sentiment for the pair entering the weekend as UsdChf noted below.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

NO CHANGE, WIDE RANGE 2350-2450

Support as long as above 2377

[SF Monedge]

I prefer to be on the sell side of UsdSwiss Franc for risk management purposes into the weekend.

A German defense industry executive of a major producer of tanks and weaponry, some of which has been shipped to Ukraine, was the target of a Russian assassination plan in recent weeks which did not play out.  When I learned of this I made some phone calls to some old friends and there is legitimate unease within military/defense circles at present.  Moscow has been engaged in cyber attacks, espionage, sabotage, and one aggressive act not publicized in media.

The situation is escalating in Eastern Europe and should be watched closely as it is clear Moscow has zero apprehension to escalate.  One event would cause Euro to shock currency markets to the downside.  At present, some NATO member countries are only paying 60% of their required defense contributions while the US has a dysfunctional Congress and no President or Vice President.

[GVI Forex 2]

U of M misses on downside

Inflation expectations dip 0.1% to 2.9%

[SF Monedge]

I will likely sell UsdCad around 3670/80 if seen.

The US and Canada signed revised the 60 year long standing treaty today whereby Canada received 50% of hydroelectric power generated by the Columbia River Dam and will receive 40% less of that amount going forward beginning in August.  The revision was in response to population demand in the US over time.  Hopefully this counters the graveyard of US oil/gas permits and related production in the US since 2020 and helps to reduce prices a small bit, which obviously soared virtually out of control in recent years.  The treaty (get this) can be unilaterally revised or terminated by either country as of September and/or for the life of the new 20 year term.  — One month.  Oil/gas data up 10am PST.

EurGbp – staying on the sell side from 8920 holds good R/R, you can forgive yourself if the bias changes.  It would require fierce buying over 8940 to change the bias.

[GVI Forex 2]

This is a good time to revisit this article assuming it was the BoJ intervening these past 2 days

Trader Alert: Will the Bank of Japan Intervene and Does Forex Intervention Work?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY ONE HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION DOUBLE BOTTOM?

This is why I love The Amazing Trader

In the heat of battle, if inf act this was another round of intervention, I ran to the chart and as I posted, saw the low yesterday was 157.41

Last now at 158.12

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 30 min

After data situation :

Support : 1.08850 , 1.08750 & 1.08450

Resistance : 1.08950 , 1.09100 & 1.09250

If this Bar closes above 1.08950, we’ll have another run Up.

Be aware of incoming Data in 50 min.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY tests sub-158… 157.41 was yesterday’s low

Will raise talk of intervention

US 10 year back to 4.20% after brief PPI pop

[GVI Forex 2]

Knee jerk reaction and now back to square one after limited follow through.

[GVI Forex 2]

Hotter PPI report

[SF Monedge]

Aussie is firmly planted bid pre-data and would require fierce selling to change the bias in my view.  I am most interested in Canadian Dollar today.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.20% vs 4.23% earlier

Note the correlation with USDJPY (Lower)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY is now down on the day

At a minimum intervention has restored a 2-way risk, potentially even reverse it if USDJPY stays below 160.00-25

[SF Monedge]

I see some things in various metrics that indicate Usd may rally a little post-data, we shall see.

[GVI Forex 2]

Data on deck

US PPI and Univ of Mich consumer sentiment where inflation expectations will be the focus

See our Economic Calendar

[Mtl JP]

sector rotation vs violent rotation …. lol …

when markets get surprised they react. fast

[GVI Forex 2]

What is sectior rotation?

Sector rotation is an active investing strategy that involves moving money between stock sectors to keep it in the best-performing sectors. Investors and traders use this strategy in anticipation of the next stage of the economic cycle, when most industries and their companies will either thrive or struggle….AI Overview

[GVI Forex 2]

July 12 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A violent rotation from Big Tech into small cap stocks followed the surprisingly benign June U.S. inflation report, while U.S. borrowing rates and the dollar plunged and Japan’s yen stole the currency show.

Morning Bid: Disinflation, rotation and a bruised dollar

[Author]

Posts