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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – POWER OF 50

 

As I noted earlier, 1.0850 will ultimately set the bias if EURUSD trades 1.08-1.09.

It is too early to tell but in any case, the bounce from sub-1.0850 would need to recover 1.0855-60 to ease the risk on the downside, above 1.0871 to shift focus back to 1.09.

[SF Monedge]

I wrote this in under 3 minutes this morning and it will be on at least one major financial news site like the last one apparently, tucked away.  We shall see…

(Soon after it was clear that emerging and low cap stocks were en vogue which was clearly reflected in surging Russel stocks, broad markets took consecutive days of hard hits.  People suddenly shifted to a narrative of market meltdown views.  This followed by a run up and the narrative broadly across media that the market has further to go as a whole.  Followed today by initial enthusiasm permeating early media sources web sites as stocks opened looking good, only to be met with broad selling and a trickling in of negative stock narratives.  With one caveat –

Russel Index stocks are moving straight up.  These are small cap US stocks.  The market is pricing in growth risk because the probabilities are declining for further lasting and aggressive gains in the overall market.  So growth stocks are where some of the better returns will be, while others are in a more stagnant phase overall.)

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0847
–
Res 1.0870/75
Sup 1.0810/00 and trgt

I am biased south as long as Res holds

[Mtl JP]

10-YR 4.23

No econ data of gameable interst to me on deck today

DLRx 104.23
IF it holds the price line here
odds are for 105.10+

[SF Monedge]

Also posted yesterday which is supportive of the DXY view::

(The 30 day Fed Funds futures are at 94.67 and I see that holding which would translate to support for continued US Dollar strength overall looking out a bit.  It might not be a good idea to sit on your dollar sells much longer if that is what you have in my view.)

[GVI Forex 2]

Monege, good call on the DXY

Michael’s Option Profile nailed the change in EURUSD direction last week

[SF Monedge]

Performing as expected –

Posted last night in Asia at 104.25 DXY and see the Index likely pausing the move up near 104.50 before declining toward 104.3 before moving up again to eclipse 104.50 and continuing upward::

(US Dollar Index should see 105 in early August and 105.50 in time in my view looking forward.  Friday in Asia was optimum positioning.)

So far so good

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – TUG-OF-WAR

 

If you are looking for a reason why GBPUSD has bounced off its low whiLe EURUSD STRUGGLES, it can be found in EURGBP.

.8400-03 is support blocking the .8383 low.

Resistabnce is falling away at .8426-33.

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:48 / the reality of FX is that it is not a world of “nice”.

Rather it is a world of intentional and deliberate seek-outers delivering and inflicting pain with evil smile and inner satisfaction (schadenfreude – look it up). It is a world of greed, ambition and intentional harm.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

As you can see from this Daily chart, USDCHF is losing segment by segment – so going lower you would say – Well NO….it is doing time within a Range from March of this year.

Between 0.87 and 0.92

So there is an obvious Buying interest , and if it succeed in holding above 0 .87 /0.88, we might be witnessing something that CHF is famous for – a Rubber band  effect – if EURUSD starts falling , CHF will fall even more , and dramatically – just like when you release the rubber band on one side.

Last time that happened was if I remember correctly sometime around 1997.

Friend of mine called me from London to congratulate me on job well done – was Long USDCHF ( and no one else was – that’s the reason for rubber band run) …We had long talks on that issue prior to the start of the rally – he had to take a good care of my position as it was his brokerage on the other end 😀 Nuff said…Watch how it develops – I would say September, but August can be a month for big mess sometimes…

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 2400 HOLDS THE KEY

XAUUSD has tested sub-2400 3 days in a row but yet tio firmly establish below it.

This is the pivotal level that will ultimately determine whether the move down was just a retrracement,

Otherwise, 2383-2412 is the current range, too tight to last for long

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY – Holding support?

 

7 red candles in a row have extended the down pattern but it held a test of key .6620 support.

Downside still at risk but if this level holds, the downside would cool.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, that would be nice but it has been more of a slow drip than an open spigot.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Monday’s Wall Street bounce saw some relief precede the first two earnings reports from the “Magnificent 7” megacap stocks, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris looked set to replace Joe Biden as Democrat candidate for November’s White House race.

Morning Bid: Megacaps report, Harris in frame, China wobbles

[Mtl JP]

Upside failure ?!

EURO 1.0856

How about the odds that 1.0875/70 Sup is broken and that players are now looking to hammer the euro puppy down for around 100 pips rather than just jubbs trying to have fun with individual palyers ?

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – STILL A RETRACEMENT?

 

if looking for potential levels of support/targets if the 1.2898 break holds.

Using 1.2612-1.3044

1.2879 = 38.2%

1.2838 = 50%

Looking farther out, 1.2777 and the major trendline are still out of range.

Check out our Fibonacci Calculator

[GVI Forex 2]

In the JPY vs the world tug-of-war, offsets are adding to demand for USD elsewhere, especially if USDJPY continues to hold the 155.80 level.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Upside failure?

 

My thanks to Bobby pointing out the channel break.

EURUSD break of 1.0871, if it holds, would confirm the end of the last leg up.

On the downside, 1.0860- is the next hurdle but 1.0850 is likely important as well as the ultimate bias indicator if it trades 1.08-1.09.

So watch 1.0871 although only 1.09+ would restore a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHARRT – AND THE OUTPERFORMER IS AGAIN?

 

USDJPY has traded lower again in the absence of any specific news or catlyst, gaining on its crosses.

This chart shows 155.80 blocking the recent intervention low at 155.37 although 155 is clearly most important from a psychological point of view.

On the upside, 156.64+ would be needed to cool the rissk, 157.17+ would be needed to suggest a failure to test 155.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Channel Support Broken.

Supports : 1.08600 , 1.8450 & 1.08050

Resistances : 1.08850 , 1.08950 & 1.09050

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