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[Belgrade Bobby]

Monedge, when you started with Coffee and USDJPY, it was fine…but when you suddenly moved over to Chinese Yuan and Singapore Dollar ( USDSEK is kind of my turf – still have a password based on exact rate of it like 25 years ago 😀 , I figured it out – Some Strong Coffee you got there 😀

You can send some over here 😀

[SF Monedge]

There were those who thought I must have had too much coffee about a month ago with UsdJpy around 160 and I said we would see 153 in coming weeks.  Pretty good coffee.  Now I see conditions in support of the buy side of US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan (2620) and Singapore Dollar (3410) around todays lows.  Perhaps 7220 or so UsdSek (Usd vs Swedish Krone) as well.

Spreads are wide as a constant with those pairs.  Keep an eye out for stop runs of highs/lows as has been pointed out by Jay with GVI.  But I wouldn’t take them, if they occur, to be anything more than just that.  At least for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

The puzzle —

Stocks off sharply and USDJPY off sharply suggests carry trades are unwinding.- see if correlation holds once stocks find a bottom

[SF Monedge]

Contract sizes are a bit larger on the buy side in Euro at the moment so we may get another opportunity to sell it just a little higher (20 pips or so) coming up.

[SF Monedge]

Bank of Canada Governor did not provide much verbiage of weight for consideration.  The tone was there is not set in stone path of policy at present, that rate cuts will be dependent on the condition of data as it transpires, and the .25 cut was to stimulate growth and is fine for now.  The bottom line is their policy is stable and not on any razors edge.  Futures are trending down so the proper approach is the buy side of UsdCad unless something profound develops.

That said, the current price area for futures and options are decent to test the buy (sell UsdCad in spot) side if you like rolling the dice, as you could hit a runner.  Buy side of 7325 calls at the money look decent on the delta and such at the moment. So in spot that’s a sell from just above 3800.

[GVI Forex 2]

Hey JP. Nice one in EURUSD 1.0865 (stop above 1.0871) => 1.0851 (50 level strikes again)

[GVI Forex 2]

Yesterday’s EURUSD breakdown level was 1.0871, so now potential resistance.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY melting down below 153.50… this is what happens when a bubble bursts

[GVI Forex 2]

BOC cuts as expected, dovish statement

S&P Global PMI, beats on composite, services better, manufacturing weaker (ISM is more closely watched)

Stocks slipping further, USDJPY testing 153.50

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 153.82

Not seen on a chart 153.50 is a pivotal level, above it keeos faint hope of 155 in sight, below it puts 152 on the radar

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, look at the 21 DMA in EURUSD

[Mtl JP]

about dlrcad, BoC and players

I like the idea that after BoC – or possibly a bit ahead of it – players will try to bag accumulated gains

as a 1/4pt cut is fully priced in at this time.

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3790 – and BoC decsion day

09:45 BoC

eager players look primed to try to run the puppy to 1.3850
My degenerate side says : “caution”

Sup 1.3760 / 1.3700

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0852

Filled the earlier gap

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0849
–
one might want to review Jay’s “magic” prose about “50”

I am biased. So at “50” and neutral

tech-wise:
Sup 1.0825-ish
Res 1.0865-ish

N of 1.0910 would likely excite the bulls

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.01
–
after all thas been said and done in and about markets

DLRx s stalled under its 200d ma
suggesting – or meaning – that dlr upside is limited in energy

on deck today:
wholesale inventories (now out)
S&P PMI
new house sales

bowman and logan yak
but should be wet noodle policy waste of time as the FED gang is in blackout

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOC

 

With a rate cut widely expected, watch how USDCAD trades vs. 1.38 as that will dictate its post metting tone.

Key resistance is at 1.3846.

Support zone is 1.3700-50.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART- BREAK OF 154.51 LEAVES A VOID

 

As noted, 154.50-00 is the key zone and while below it, supports are not until the 150-152 area.

There is a 23.6% retracement at 153.73 (127.19-161.93)

Big figures will be seen as key levels (154. 153. etc)

[GVI Forex 2]

Here’s a catalyst for JPY buying

Exclusive: BOJ to weigh rate hike next week, detail plan to halve bond buying

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall St has suddenly become a tough crowd to please.
Morning Bid: High earnings bar, Harris polling bump

[Author]

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