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[SF Monedge]

Mixed internals across the board but it appears Euro will sell on the data at least initially.  Hard call.

[Mtl JP]

then there is the odd-ball chance that jerome will somehow be less than forthcoming about an imminent rate cut.

seeing how the market is wound up in its expectation for jerome going from yellow to green light about a cut, anything wobbly , hesistant or “prudent” could result in player – awww – disappointment

and be a dandy profit-juicing opportunity

[Mtl JP]

to game FOMC

actually there is more:
they will game each other
in a way players will settle the differences in their opinions about hike / no hike / if n when

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.

Morning Bid: BOJ hikes with Fed ahead, Big Tech flubs

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.

Morning Bid: BOJ hikes with Fed ahead, Big Tech flubs

[Mtl JP]

Officials were burned earlier this year by hotter inflation, but new risks to the labor market have helped rebuild the groundwork for cuts.
Nick Timiraos
July 30, 2024
The Outlook
Inflation and labor-market developments should allow Federal Reserve officials this week to signal that a cut is very possible at their next meeting, in September.

here is jeff with his nickle’s worth:
Here’s everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday

***
Ps / Jerome holds a press conf after FOMC’s deed

[Mtl JP]

This yield curve-fueled recession indicator from the Fed shows a 70% probability of a recession. Here’s what its author says.

One model used at the Fed was written in 2006. Titled “the yield curve and predicting recessions,” the paper calculates recession probabilities over the next 12 months using just three variables: the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, the 3 month yield BX:TMUBMUSD03Mand the current federal funds rate. Right now, that indicator points to a 70% probability of a recession.

[Mtl JP]

BoJ hiked
Yen rebound / ed
that’s it for first leg

now the fearful and greedy players wait to game FOMC
coming up later today

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.08 HOLDS

Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, which was higher than expected.

The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, easing slightly from June’s 4.1% reading.(source: CNBC)

Chart shows the bounce from just below 1.08 would need to take out 1.0835-44 to puit the neutral 1.0850 level in play again.

Logic says to expect support while above 1.08 but beware of month end erratics.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 150.90

150,00 defended on first run at it,

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – STOCKS UP AHEAD OF FOMC

 

Using a CFD feed so levels may differ from other synbols (e.g. SPX500) or even a the same symbol with a different broker.

So look at 5500 as a pivoital level with a void of almost 100 pts above it.

Expect support below the market ahead of the FOMC.

Key event is FOMC, also month end flows.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDJPY WEEKLY CHART – THE BIGGEST LOSER

 

This cross continues to lead the short JPY cross (carry) trade unwind.

IN THIS CASE BOTH AUDUSD AND USDJPY ARE DOWN TODAY,

Watch USDJPY 150 as below it would probably be needed to see 96.84 (a level I have been citing) trade

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – BOJ SURPRISES

BOJ raises short-term policy rate to 0.25% from 0-0.1%
BOJ to halve monthly bond buying to Y3 trln in Q1 2026
Broadening wage hikes, rising services prices behind move
BOJ will keep raising rates as needed – statement (Source Reuters)

—————————————————————————————————

Stays offered while below 151.84 former double bottom

150.25 is next key support but 150 is the obvious target

Trendline is in the 148s, break would coinfirm what we already know.

145.89 is the key target if 150 is broken,

140.19 is a major target

Above 151.84-152.00 would be needed to slow the threat,

BoJ likely lurking to slow the downside, not reverse it,

 

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0827
knoc knock Res

something about head banging , thinking and learning

maybe about where to put one’s stop, how far off the Res pricepoint
nasty evil bad and ugly nigel jubbs want to know

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

 

XAUUSD, ALREADY ABOVE ITS 2000 DAY MVA (YELLOW) IS TRYING TO ESTABLISH ABOVE THE 100 DAY (BLUE).

TO CONFIRM THE END OF THE DOWN MOVE AND CONFIRM A SHIFT TO AN UPTREND, 2432 WOULD NEED TO BE BROKEN.

IT IS NOT CLEAR YET WHETHER THE MIDDLE EASTR SITUATION WAS A CATALYST,

[Belgrade Bobby]

Economic Data Calendar – Starting tonight

[Mtl JP]

SF Monedge 5:12 / thanks you moocho !

[SF Monedge]

There was a whale order on the buy side of Gold this morning at a correlated priced of 2438.50 futures.  The delta was low enough and other metrics like forwards were strong enough to suggest it was not a hedge or profit taking.  Curves are all straight up out to Nov 26 at 2620 roughly.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

OK, we have a Clear break…finally….

Now Resistance comes at 1.08250

Supports at 1.07500 , 1.07250 & 1.06850

[SF Monedge]

Forwards in Sterling are dominant on the buy side compared to Euro being strongly tilted in favor of sellers post-data, so Sterling is remaining the favorable of the two for the buy side so far around 2810/20.

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