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[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.80-ish

currently janet’s happy ..
so are the folks who locked in govt paper at 5+ around a week or so ago

[Mtl JP]

NFP at 114 vs 175 expected (by experts)

unleashing of animal spirits !
usdyen 147.15 bim boom BAM !

[Mtl JP]

IEEHA !!! DLRYEN 147.50 and bim boom bam !

come home to daaady …

[Mtl JP]

re DLRYEN
imo it is expensive carry to hold the puppy short
but there is a reason why “quality” has a high(er) price LoL

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.94 at 7:59 in NY
and NFP day
–
Overnite stock bled some more and currently US stocks look like they ll open in a pool of blood as well – really only keeping in tune with seasonals

8:30 – NFP exp.: 175 vs 206 prev
Plus some dust details such as hrly wage and unemp rate

12:00 – barkin and goolsbee yak at separate events

Yesterday on the pundit circuit “sahm rule” was featured and discussed as reliable recession predictor. Folks were self-scaring themselves and others that the FED is slowing the economy faster than thought.

There is nothing like a combination of good scare and anxiety and fear gripping the player collective

33bps pricing rate cut in sept

I like DLRx (103.85) down some more
Ditto for USDYEN puppy (S 147.90 R 150.25)

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:57 / … IF I was the BoJ … \\
leaving aside that you r not the BoJ

but as a market player of the YEN how do you game the BoJ and its ccy ?

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 149
and gaming ueda
–
“43% of market players expect the BOJ’s next rate hike in October, compared with 25% in September and 23% in July.”

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

Someone so far defending 148.50

If I was the BoJ I would be in covertly to slow/smooth not reverse the move and book some nice profits!

Scroll down to see a USDJPY update with levels

This might raise some concerns

Nikkei Index 35,909.70
−2,216.63 (-5.81%) today

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

August looks anxious already – as stock markets take fright at Big Tech earnings and start to reconsider ‘hard landing’ scenarios for the world economy just as central banks ease and bond yields plummet.

It’s been a frantic week’s trading in all corners of the financial world. Regardless of the recently vaunted rotation of stock sectors, the biggest rotation that’s emerging is one from stocks to bonds as ‘recession’ creeps back into parlance.

Morning Bid: Rethinking recession risks and AI, markets take fright

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

August looks anxious already – as stock markets take fright at Big Tech earnings and start to reconsider ‘hard landing’ scenarios for the world economy just as central banks ease and bond yields plummet.

It’s been a frantic week’s trading in all corners of the financial world. Regardless of the recently vaunted rotation of stock sectors, the biggest rotation that’s emerging is one from stocks to bonds as ‘recession’ creeps back into parlance.

Morning Bid: Rethinking recession risks and AI, markets take fright

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAIY CHART – REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

 

The retreat from the record high continyes as markets await the next key event, the US jobs report. As noted, the mood has shifted to bad news is bad news so price action suggests traders are  wary of a downside surprise..

On this chart 5391 has been broken so back above it, at a minimum, would be needed to slow the risk on the downside.

Using a 10% rule, 5106 = a 10% retracement off the record 5674 high (not a forecast).

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – RECORD HIGH LOOMS

XAUUSD, except for 2 small red candles, has been straight up since 2350.

Jeep it simple. 2430-50 needs to hold to put the record 2484 high on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – UP ON RISK OFF

 

EURUSD catching a bid as a safe haven as US STOCKS extend THE slide ahead of the US jobs report where the reaction has shifted to bad news is bad news. Price action suggests traders are wary of a downside JOBS surprise.

KEY CHART LEVELS

TRENDLINE
1.0836
1.0850 *
1.0870 *

1.0850-70 ARE GAME CHANGER LEVELS

ON THE DOWNSIDE, 1.08 IS CLEARLY PIVOTAL AS IT NEEDS TO STAY ABOVE TO MAINTAIN A BID.

[Ab hk]

2nd time above 2450 and no stops found….

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –

 

As I noted, when I can identify a trend, I look at longer time frame charts to see what level would end the latest leg.

In this case it would be 151.25, which seems safe into the weekend.

Chart levels:
148.50 = Thursday low
148.00 = Pivotal lebvel
145.89 = key target if below 148

On the upside, 150 is clearly pivotal in dictating whether USDJPY goes after the above levels.

Note JPY strength is even more promounced on its major crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

Aug 2 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Falling bond yields and the prospect of lower interest rates may have helped fuel investors’ animal spirits and the recent mega rally in world stocks, but it’s a different story when borrowing costs are falling because recession fears are rising.

Morning Bid: Markets wilt as growth fears slam yields

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Supports : 2430.00 , 2405.00 & 2375.00

Resistance : 2465.00 , 2485.00 & 2615.00

Timing is now of most importance – Gold has to go above 2485.00 in next two days or risk the double top and deeper correction.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART -DISAPPOINTING

Bulls have to be disappointed by the brick wall around 70K and the sharp retreat.

As the daily chart shows, below 63K (briefly broken) would open the door for 60K .

As I have noted, I prefer to look at pivotal levelSs such as 60k, 65k and 70k AS A RANGE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF KEY STOPS SO REVERT TO SHORTER TIME FRAMES TO TRADE IT.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – bearish below 1.28

When in a trend, like the downtrend in GBPUSD, I look for an AT level that would negate the latest leg.

On this chart it comes in at 1.2840.

A couple of levels to watch:

1.2750 (power of 50 level for day trading)

1.2777 (former support)

1.2800 (pivotal big figure, bearish below it)

1,2612 (major level), start of the move that peaked at 1.3044).

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistances : 1.07950 , 1.08100 & 1.08200

Supports : 1.07750 , 1.07550 , 1.07250 & 1.06800

1.06800 is the Key here – as long as above it, we can turn Up  but once taken out the Road is open all the way till 1.01500.

[Author]

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