this kitten has bounce in it atm BUT if it tries to snatch 1.0950
odds are that that would be a fleeting moment and the kitten would likely come back down a bit
Basically I knew it would likely go this way 2 weeks ago, but the problem you face is trusting an array of metrics when they are counter to market flows. It’s a good place to be when you can see what should transpire but it is constantly confounding to trust what the deep data in markets is showing and time your positioning precisely. If you pay attention to my comments the market will very often do what I project within 2 minutes. If I say something should transpire a certain way 2 weeks from now, that is understandably difficult to trust.
The problem to solve with internal metrics in markets is trusting them. I was long euro from yesterdays lows around the close of the day and held overnight to wake up to nice gains but the metrics telling me to get on the sell side of Sterling, which I was also riding long gains in. There is plenty of logic to substantiate not doing that and so I went with the logic and took the gains earlier than necessary. If you pay attention you can see an hour, a day, a week, two weeks ahead of time. But you have to trust it.
So I trusted the metrics and went on the sell side in Sterling at 2838 and here we are in the low 20’s. Now the metrics are showing dominance on the long side of Yen itself, and so if you are thinking of buying UsdJpy here approaching extension (technical) levels you would really need to have some guts as JP just pointed out.
In answer to JP’s point about fundamentals earlier, my view is that they have been in gear the entire way, you can’t deny that, where the problem to solve lies is the timing in the midst of the flows.
At least for today, all internal metrics are stacked to the sell side in Sterling, whereas Euro is stacked to the buy side. My preference is in accord with those metrics, so I am selling Sterling higher. Euro has to drop some for me to be on the buy side, same with Aussie.
Yen? BOJ threat has run its course for now, you can be on either side.
There are dominant internal metrics in US stocks on the buy side and in US Notes present early on this morning, which would suggest that Euro should sustain its post-data spike. This would be against the overall grain and some currencies are right at price levels where the would stall if the spike is to fail. Pivotal point right here. In my view nothing changes in the overall sell cycle for Sterling unless 2860 is compromised and the buying holds.
it just might be that ueda has cashed and locked in sufficient profits to make him happy
and so if he goes away now puppy would have a chance to rebound some
