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[GVI Forex 2]

US Kirby… closest we have ever been to a Hamas-Israel ceasefire

[SF Monedge]

If the put/call ratio in US stocks hit 91 again the math favors selling.  One metric I am watching.  It should coincide with another disgusting-mentally ill Olympic opening ceremony type event out of France.

[SF Monedge]

I will likely be on the sell side of US stocks tomorrow or the next day.

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk on start in the US…focus on stocks…FX in the background… but USDJPY is not correlating

[SF Monedge]

I like the sell side of New Zealand around 6420, goes with the dominant flow.  Would require this overnight buying to start a new dominant buy cycle against Dollar so the sell is worth exploring on a decent probabilities fashion.  Some internal metrics support.

[SF Monedge]

Buy side of UsdCad looks to have decent R/R approaching 3720/30.  It is entering a value where it either goes on a tangent to the downside from there or holds and continues the more dominant bias.

[SF Monedge]

Buy side of UsdJpy and UsdMxn are treating me decently this morning.  Right here is decent if you missed entry, albeit a bit on the dicey side because price is precisely in the middle of what I perceive as exhaustion areas.  You either get it perfectly or the market has other ideas and soon.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, no need to think about the 1/3 but question is whether the carry trade is dead for now.

[Mtl JP]

ahhh yes … that “imminent” retaliation
thks for the reminder:

Oil Climbs as Equities Rally and Traders Eye Iran Retaliation
(Bloomberg) — Oil rallied as markets globally recovered from a recent rout and investors remained on edge over the possibility of a retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel. … /.

[Mtl JP]

Related to 2/3rds
–
The Unexpected Winners and Losers as Markets Went Into Meltdown
(Bloomberg) — The market wipeout that swept through equities, bonds and currencies on Monday left just a few resilient pockets relatively unscathed.

authors Jeanny Yu, Jake Lloyd-Smith, Marcus Wong and Trista Xinyi Luo go on to explain what investors bought — or dumped — that might surprise.

they dont say surprise who (maybe the writers themselves or their readers)

[Mtl JP]

…”About two-thirds”…
–
maybe the remaining 1/3 is not as desparete as the first 2/3rds
maybe better traders too

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0920
–
I am biased slightly uP
– as I wait for narrow range to breakout
for 1.0950-ish target
Sup 1.0875
Today, in a personal preference tactic, I give bit more weight to Pivot price points

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.936 uP a bit
DLRx 102.98
– Dlr is somewhere between wish-washi jerky and uP
– Some ccies over 1% gain moves on the usd
– On the other hand : yen, chf : down, good hits
Stock looking to open uP

Odds of DLR gaining – 104 a sell if seen ? – continue to be iffy in my optique
I agree with those who suggest the carry trades cleaning is not complete

Nothing on Data Calendar
12:00 – collins
13:00 – janet peddles 42bln of 10yr paper

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART

While the carry trade/recession fear sell-off seems done for now, this CFD feed needs to take out 5310 to suggest more legs to the upside.

In any case, there should be support on any decent dip today should one occur.

[GVI Forex 2]

How do we know that cross flows are driving the market?

When two currencies move in opposite directions you can assume there are real money cross flows

Look at USDJPY and USDCHF (both up sharply) vs firmer commodity currencies and GBP is up as well.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

Having failed to test 2353, XAUUSD has bounced along with others that sold off on the carry trade unwind.

Resistance is at 2417,  2400 stands in the way.

Will find a boid if it stays above 2378.

[GVI Forex 2]

From the Morning Bid report

At the heart of the problem over the past week was that the BoJ move seemed to puncture an estimated half trillion dollar yen-funded currency ‘carry trade’, catapulting the currency higher in the process. About two-thirds of those short yen positions may have already been unwound, according to estimates by JPMorgan.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

In an extraordinary round trip over the past week, world markets have rebounded sharply from days of turbulence – thanks in part to Bank of Japan almost apologising on Wednesday for its role in the ruckus – and traders now try to figure out what’s next.

Morning Bid: BOJ eases market migraine, Super Micro aches

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.09050 , 1.08850 & 1.08650

Resistance : 1.09250 , 1.09350 & 1.09600

Last 24h EURUSD is biding its time in some kind of a sideways correction.

Needs to go above 1.09350 to renew the pressure to Up.

Pattern wise – it is in the middle of nowhere…

Time wise – it should move in next 2 h.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – testing support

As noted, commodity currencies benefiting from a bounce in risk and end, for now, to the carry trade unwind.

As this chart shows, USDCAD has layers of support (tested 1.3743) but is on the defensive as long as it trades below 1.3787/90/1.38

If it trades 1,37-1.38, then keep an eye on 1.3750 to set its tone.

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