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[Mtl JP]

TG – is your “Entertaining the sell side of EU is my preference” still alive ?

I am in short now.
10-yr 3.917

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –

XAUUSD is pressing towards next resistance while there is been little reaction in other markets so far to news reports that Iran could launch a retaliatory strike against Israel in the next 24 hours

As the chart shows, 2459 is the obstacle to 2477. with the record 2483 high looming above it.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw
eure here is frollicking with R1 pivot

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0934
–
chart-wise a minor Res
10-yr 1.3946

t’ be nice see just a bit of stress n anxiety

[SF Monedge]

Reasons why markets will not crash this week:

1.      It is British Afternoon Tea Week.  Therefore no market shocks allowed during tea time.

2.      It is National Elvis Week in the US.  No crashes while “The King” is being honored.

Caveat:  George Soro’s birthday is today, British Sterling should be on alert.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 15 MINUTE CHART – DOWN THEN UP

Back up after the early dip as price action tells you something about August liquidity.

Watch 5350 area as that seems to be the pivotal bias setting level today.

[SF Monedge]

The way internal metrics look at present suggest buy interest at and just below 2900.  I can wait for it to exhaust and sell again on the pull up, price activity was consistent and smooth on a earlier sell.  Nothing has happened recently to change the overall sell bias.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 15 MINUTE CHART -This is a great chart, support holding so far

Chart Source: The Amazing Trader

147.52-66 IS A SUPPORT ZONE FOLLOWING THE RETREAT FROM 148+

WATCH US STOCKS TO SEE IF CORRELATION CONTINUES

[Mtl JP]

Data Deck barren today

maybe some levity:
Reuters
Elon Musk to interview Trump on X social media network – 8pm

[GVI Forex 2]

So stocks took an early hit => USDJPY dips back below 148 on risk off

[SF Monedge]

Headlines reflect turmoil and indecision bordering on indigestion regardless of source or political propaganda.  Warrants caution.  Entertaining the sell side of EU is my preference of the moment.

[Mtl JP]

yield n eurdlr

prancing in perfect cross-correlated pip for pip up n down dance

atm

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY spiked throiugh stops above 147.90…JPY crosses driving it

[Mtl JP]

Monday – new day, new week
–
US 10-YR 3.938% @ 8:23:57ny
DLRx 103.0x
US stocks: iffy this or that a way
VIX n of 20 = suggests more volatility than not

Week-end yak from bowman suggests no imminent rate cut
Player expectations for sept cut are cooled off tiny bit
For the dollar to gain some love from players will like require more player cooling off sept cut expectation.

—
EURO 1.0919
–
I am biased. Ambivalent today, slight bullish out bit longer
Res 1.095ish
Sup 1.088x-ish

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD found support around 1.3720

AUDUSD so far staying below .6610

USDJPY trading firmer but below 147.90

EURUSD – On the sideline

A touch of risk on in stocks

Typical Monday start

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK – MOVING AVERAGES CHECK THE DOWNSIDE

Posted over the weekend (daily chart)

GBPUSD bounce from the 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) moving average band would need to regain 1.28+ to expose resistance (1.2800-20) and retracement levels as shown below.

On the downside. 1.27 is a pivotal level that needs to trade above to keep a new found bid. Below it is key support is at the 1.2664 low and the major 1.2612 support.

There is a full UK economic calendar this week so the reaction will dictate whether GBPUSD has found a bottom.

GBPUSD retracement levels:

[Mtl JP]

Interesting display of euphemism in dolan’s “off-radar” poetic talent this morning:
–
“Markets pray” … that “there should be nothing to scare the horses if the number comes in on consensus – with even Fed hawks now acknowledging it’s time to ease as long as disinflation continues.”

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Off-radar for much of the past week’s market turbulence, U.S. inflation updates this week will reveal just how much latitude the Federal Reserve has to meet pumped-up expectations around its first interest rate cut next month.

Morning Bid: Markets pray inflation stays well behaved

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – COMMODITY CURRENCIES REBOUND

It makes sense since JPY carry trade unwinds hit commodity currencies the hardest, it is logical to see these currencies rebound (vs JPY as well) once the panic selling subsided.

What they have in common are the big wicks that suggested highs/lows are in for now.

USDCAD:

Intra-day support 1.3720

Daily chart support 1.3656

Key weekly support 1.3588 and the trendline

If it trades within 1.37-1.38, back above 1.3750-60 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.3790-00.

Note, AUD and NZD outperforming today, CAD lagging

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – JPY CROSSES

AUD and NZD both outperforming while JPY is weaker (USDJPY higher) suggest JPY crosses are at play.

AUDUSD .6610 is a key resistance

Support below the market as long as it trades above .6545.

Whatever the case, the blowout to the downside (just one week ago) indicates the bottom is in.

[Author]

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