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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

A case can be made for a 145-148 (or 146-148) consolidation range after the brief blip yesterday to 148.22 failed to follow through. A solid move above 148 would be needed to put 150 in play again.

If USDJPY settles into a range, then the cost of carrying a long JPY may become a factor.

Otherwise markets seem to be waiting for

Iran to attack

US CPI on Wednesday

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD retracement levels (high today 1,2813)

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Cable is testing the resistance at 1.28150 .

Supports come at : 1.27750 , 1.27600 & 1.27200

Only above 1.28150 we can talk about Bullish.

So far this looks like correction of a previous drop.

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk on start (stocks up)

GBPUSD tests 1.28 after UK jobs report

JPY trading softer (but USDJPY is still below 148)

EURUSD lagging on EURGBP dip

XAUUSD backing off after testing 2477 resistance (noted yesterday)

Markets seem to be betting on no Middle East escalation assuming Iran will launch its strike

US CPI on Wed is not expected to alter rate cut expectations barring a surprise

[Mtl JP]

SF 5:52 —- after the “intelligence” types laid out all their intelligence to the commander in chief, did biden plan and decide all that ?

[Mtl JP]

Jay 3:49 my personal preference is for timesofisrael

like this latest on their f/page

“IDF on ‘peak alert’ for Iran, Hezbollah attacks; US expects it may happen this week
By Agencies, Emanuel Fabian, ToI Staff and Jacob Magid
Senior officials say Iran has made same preparations as it did before April attack, though exact timing of launch unknown; army says still no changes to civilian guidelines”

FWIW

[Mtl JP]

EU’s Thierry Breton threatens Elon Musk over tonite’s Trump interview over some “harmful content” as imagined by Thierry

elon’s patience and witt border on compassion

[GVI Forex 2]

A USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader

In an article entitled A Bold Prediction for USDJPY I listed a series of forum posts from one of our long-time and highly respected Global-View community members, whom I called a savvy trader.

As you can see in the article, he called the top in USDJPY and more.

So, given what I called his bold prediction, I would be remiss if I didn’t share (with his permission) this email I received from him last night.

A USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader

[Belgrade Bobby]

S&P 500 – SPX

US indexes waver ahead of economic data; CPI in focus
Real estate  S5REAS and financials  SPF were the top losers among S&P 500 sectors, down 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.

The benchmark S&P 500  SPX and Nasdaq Composite  IXIC recouped most of their losses from last Monday by the end of the week. The S&P 500 had suffered its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly two years on recession fears and the unwinding of currency carry trade positions involving the yen.

Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index reading and retailer earnings to assess demand by shoppers.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Has to go above 2485.00 to confirm the new wave that can run as high as 2600.00 at least.

Support comes at 2435.00 and ultimately 2385.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Daily

“Possible Bitcoin price drop to $52K rises as BTC derivatives data shows traders losing hope” Mainstream media….

But in my opinion, technically speaking – Close tonight above 59.300 would create a very Bullish Pattern – a perfect ground for attack at 70 K once again.

However , close below 58.200 would call for at least 56K and 50 K soon after.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq 100 – NDX

After a nice rebound from the low 17.435, index has stalled a bit today.

Has to hold above 18.350 to avoid another leg down.

Safe zone comes above 19.000

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia Corp stock is trading higher on Monday, attributed to its success in the Al market through its CUDA software platform and dominance in the Al chip market.

Nvidia, seen as a top choice for rebound in the semiconductor sector, may gain from a Q4 sector recovery. Its new Al-focused Blackwell chip is set to spur growth.

[SF Monedge]

Nothing has changed in Eur/Jpy since the Asian open last session, price is almost where it started.  Geopolitical conditions are tense at present.  Honor the sell side in my view.

[SF Monedge]

Iran will not go very far with its military aspirations.  This is why:

Not including other allies of Israel, The US has 63 U.S. bases, garrisons, and shared facilities in the middle east region.  began last October, attacks by Iranian proxy forces on these sites have killed or wounded at least 145 U.S. personnel on Middle Eastern bases.  U.S. and allied forces have been attacked more than 170 times during the Gaza war: 102 times in Syria, 70 in Iraq, and once in Jordan

Among other assets, the US just positioned Carrier Stike Group 9 (USS Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier) to the Persian Gulf.  This includes one just added Nuclear attack submarine which is joining another already there, and another with the Carrier Stike Group.

Carrier Air Wing 11

The “Fist of the Fleet” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 25 – F/A-18E – from Naval Air Station Lemoore, Calif.
The “Black Knights” of VFA 154 – F/A-18F – from Naval Air Station Lemoore.
The “Blue Blasters” of VFA 34 – F/A-18E – from Naval Air Station Oceana, Va.
The “Fighting Checkmates” of VFA 211 – F/A-18E – from Naval Air Station Oceana.
The “Rooks” of Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 137 – EA-18G – from Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Wash.
The “Liberty Bells” of Airborne Command and Control Squadron (VAW) 115 – E-2D – from Naval Air Station Point Mugu, Calif.
The “Providers” of Fleet Logistics Squadron (VRC) 40 – C-2A – from Naval Station Norfolk, Va.
The “Wolf Pack” of Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 75 – MH-60R – from Naval Air Station North Island, Calif.
The “Eightballers” of Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 8 – MH-60S – from Naval Air Station North Island.
Cruiser
USS Lake Erie (CG-70), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.

Destroyer Squadron 23
Destroyer Squadron 23 is based in San Diego and is embarked on Theodore Roosevelt.

USS John S. McCain (DDG-56), homeported at Naval Station Everett, Wash.
USS Halsey (DDG-97), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.
USS Daniel Inouye (DDG-118), homeported at Naval Station Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.

[GVI Forex 2]

Gold extending its high… 2477 is the last line of defense ahead of 2483.

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is the earlier report

Iran could attack Israel in less than 24 hours, sources say, as Western powers issue Tehran a warning

[SF Monedge]

JP – August 12, 2024 at 3:27 pm.  Yes, and expect a reaction of sorts again with DX reaching 103/102.90 area.

[Mtl JP]

on a little bit grander time scheme of things

stocks are still the traditional “sell in may yadi-di-dee-dadda” theme
so still subject to odds-on little spanking
pricise timing of spanking is flighty

[GVI Forex 2]

Delayed reaction to that Iran news?

Stocks, fall => USDJPY falls

[Author]

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