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[Mtl JP]

anyone care that japan PM goes POOF! ?

[GVI Forex 2]

A major cyberattack has targeted the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and several other banks, leading to widespread disruptions in the country’s banking system, according to Iran Ibternational

Source: Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

warning: political theme musing
–
DNC 4-day convention start next Monday

harris n walz are officially the Dem’s ticket
still, delegates will cast – ceremoniously I informed – their votes for harris n walz

I am also told that everyone of the speakers’ list will be happy and excited
including joe who is slated to yak first (on monday, hahaha, everyone knows the importance of the order in which yakkers yak)

kamala is apparently slated to yak last and gracefully accept her nomination.

I am being informed (by msnbc’s morning joe) that a repeat of 1968 convention has a 0% chance

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures have a bundle of mid-size orders (you won’t see it with your broker but I can) about 20pips higher than current market.

[michael Calif]

time to Sell EURUSD; USD futures have bottomed    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, good alert

EURUSD WEEKLY –  200 WEEK MVA IS AROUND 1.1070

 

[Mtl JP]

me bad … not 200dma
200 week ma

[SF Monedge]

What is transpiring is the primary market participants are pricing in reduced US rates as of September, with many supportive events or conditions being amplified in scope and/or duration with respect to price activity.  The opposite applies for many counter pricing developments.  This will dissipate gradually as September nears.  Interest rate differentials will still exist.  It would take profoundly strong conditions to drop US dollar aggressively from here to the point of altering Index parameters (101).

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1037
bulls on coke
–
letsee priceaction around 200dma

[SF Monedge]

Just a note the volume of participation in some Eu related instruments is quite low at the moment interestingly.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD, in its role as the anti-dollar, sets the overall tone by how it trades vs. 1.10

[GVI Forex 2]

Some buy the rumor sell the fact reaction but little change in rate cut expectations.

[Mtl JP]

DOLLAR going the way of a morning soft turd
as players are feeding off each other betting that this morn’s 8:30 CPI will prove as further confidence builder to the FED rate cut.

I am not posting the various concesus numbers

I am biased. I think the current risk is that players have gotten ahead of themselves.
For reference: eurdlr 1.1025 as I type

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets
 
 
Feeding off impressive disinflation and a growing list of central bank interest rate cuts around the world, global stocks and bonds are rallying anew – with today’s U.S. consumer price update set to clear the deck for Fed easing next month.

US clears inflation decks, NZ cut surprises

[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI

If UK CPI is a guide, headline was up but core slipped. Markets reacted to the core.

See consensus forecasts in our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Sept BOE rate cut risk is back on the table after UK CPI

Japan PM resigned

RBNZ surprised with a 25bp rate cut

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Tug-of War

.8580 is a pivotal area with the key .8625 high exposed if trading above it

Catalyst today was UK CPI

Note, when two currencies trade in opposite directions vs the USD, like a tug-of-war, it is a sign of real money cross flows driving it.

Market is having more trouble absorbing the EUR buying.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Let the Lines speak for themselves…..

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

What have you done for me lately?

This came to mind this morning after I nailed the direction and support yesterday (1.0945-50).

Looking across all currencies, the NZD is the big loser (-1.1%) while EURUSD is the outperformer, up while GBP and JPY are down vs. the dollar, providing demand for EUR out of its crosses.

EURUSD

The only level that matters is 1.10 as it just broke its 1.1008 daily resistance with key levels beyond it shown on this chart. I the absence of key nearby levels, 1.1020-50 is a potential resistance zone.

The support zone is 1.0980-00 and 1.0945-50/

Next key focus is on US CPI… tone will be set by 1.10 post-data

[Mtl JP]

TG If you are trading off some fundamental such as “not until the shooting starts from Iran” ….

Biden: Iran expected to push off attacking Israel if Gaza ceasefire deal clinched – timesofisrael

Iran officials suggest planned retaliation may be scrapped if Gaza ceasefire reached – timesofisrael

You just may have to wait some … and ignore David Ignatius in WaPO claim that “America anxiously awaits Iran’s threatened reprisal”

[Author]

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