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[GVI Forex 2]

If I was in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes, I would pat myself on the back and just look to confirm what economists are forecasting, which is for 75bps of rate cuts this year.

If I Was in Fed Chair Powell’s Shoes…

[SF Monedge]

Further data for economic consideration:

·        The hire to job openings ratio between 2018-2020 was 0.85 on average.

·        The ratio has since fallen to its current rate of roughly 0.35, which is a 500% decrease.

·        This equates to hirings having fallen from 8 hires per 10 job postings to 4 out of 10.

[SF Monedge]

For consideration regarding real economics according to the respected source Resume Builder:

1.      4 out of 10 jobs posted in the US in 2024 were “fake.”

2.      3 out of every 10 jobs in 2024 had roles that were not “real.”

This, added to the BLS not reporting almost 1 million job losses in the last report, and the continued high inflation in real terms not “how its doing the last two years” is not the rosy picture some are painting.

Result:

1.      Buy military defense, gold, energy dividend,  AI, and staple stocks.

2.      Bonds/notes.

3.      Less performance related currencies.

4.      Coffee and Booze related commodities.

[GVI Forex 2]

[SF Monedge]

The UsdJpy 146.25 magnet I’ve been mentioning the last two days is quite active with some expected over/under.  Last hurrah is just above for a bit of time.  Current problems with it:

1.      Major bank executives have voiced no confidence in US government data from this administration in light of the hidden in plain sight BLS fraud.

2.      Stocks are likely to remain in trouble overall regardless of the FED being forced to lower rates coming up in part to the fraudulent data and the fact that almost 1 million job losses went unreported with more to come showing an unstable economy.

3.      The short side of UsdJpy is dicey with the evaporation of confidence due to the uncertainty and stronger in stocks now than before.

Rates will be reduced but now the impact is likely reduced.  So USD is a matter of the extent pricing in has been achieved.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields rising further, 10 year 3.87%… may be weighing on stocks

[GVI Forex 2]

US10 year 3.854%, +7.8bps

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted yesterday

August 21, 2024 at 8:42 pm
michael Calif

big picture: when viewed from the 2008 High, the current Euro rally since October 2022 lacks conviction and will soon turn lower :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Another flurry on medium data release.

US bond yields are higher, likely giving a heavily sold dollar some support.

Helped by the anti-dollar staying below 1.1150.

[GVI Forex 2]

Jobless claims caused a flurry but a non-event.

Next up US S&P Global PMIs, not as impoertant as the ISM but these days all data seems to see a reaction.

All eyes are looking ahead to Powell tomorrow.

[GVI Forex 2]

This weekly jobless claims coincides with the BLS jobs survey window for NFP to be reported on Sept 6

So this is seen as a key weekly jobless claims report.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy is bid in buy mode until the 146.25 area where the odds of that changing increase a bit more than moderately.  The number 25 is not a magical reversion it is just working that way this time.

[Mtl JP]

Every time the Jobless Claims comes up
I am reminded of the cheek of dubya

“You work three jobs? … Uniquely American, isn’t it? I mean, that is fantastic that you’re doing that.” – Bush to mother of three

[GVI Forex 2]

NEXT UP ARE WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS AFTER LAST WEEK’S SURPRISE DROP.

THIS DATA HAS BEEN ELEVATED IN IMPORTANCE GIVEN THE FED’S FOCUS ON THE JOBS MARKET.

[Mtl JP]

Jay t 9:23 / … “Invaluable Calendar Feature” …

Thank you !

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.

If the pressure on global markets from the tumult at the start of the month has abated, nobody told the dollar.

Morning Bid: King dollar’s crown is slipping

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – TUG-Of-WAR

Break of .8500 makes this the pivotal BIAS SETTING level with little on charts until .8382-8407

This has created a tUg-of-war between EURUSD )trading below 1.1150) and GBPUSD (extending high with the 2023 peak at 1.3141 looming above).

Note 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) mVas

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.31050, 1.30750 & 1.30350

Resistances : 1.31300, 1.32050 & 1.36200

1.32050 being a top of the channel might prove hard to crack – at least on the first attempt.

However, Cable has a tendency to break every and any level, so wouldn’t surprise me if we see it above – if not this, then next week.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

Daily chart

4h chart

Supports : 1.11300, 1.11100 & 1.10950

Resistances : 1.11450, 1.11550 & 1.11850

Time wise – we should be seeing some kind of a correction at least.

As long as 1.10950 holds, we are in Up trend.

Pattern wise – angle of climb is suggesting : More to come

Ultimate Target – 1.13300

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – HIDDEN HAND?

USDJPY has found support below 145 for the 2nd day, this time just below it

Is there a hidden hand providing support to prevent a run at 144.03 and the 141.68 low?

On the upside, back above 146.89 would be needed to negate risk to the downside.

[Author]

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