Contact us

[michael Calif]

measuring the Rule of 9 from the 2008 High projects another Euro futures Low at/under 1.0000    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

can Euro futures go back down and retest the Oct ’22 lows at/under 1.0000  ??    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Sweet bounce

EURUSD held 1.1150 => EURGBP held .8450

EURUSD last at 1.1160

[GVI Forex 2]

A bit of a tug-of-war between EURUSD (weaker) and GBPUSD (off on the day but holding a bid) as EURGBP slips to a new day low.

Key support is at Friday’s .8451-52 low, suggesting .8450 is the key support.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4H

Supports : 1.31800, 1.31450 & 1.31300

Resistances : 1.32100, 1.32250 & 1.32600

Close of this bar below 1.31900 would signal some kind of a correction to the downside – or sideways to down.

However close above 1.32050 would hint a possibility of breaking above the resistance channel line at 1.32250 and continuation of this sharp Up trend.

Cable is in the Up Trend, and even deeper corrections (  1.30 area) wouldn’t change it.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1166
repulsed from 1.12; languishing with a slight down tilt

Res 1.1213
Sup 1.1116

current price dynamic suggests odds of further and deeper losses should be feeble

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 100.70
mild pop,
nothing to change trend direction on any time frame except the 1 and 5 min bars

–
Res 101.37
Sup 100.35

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD FIBOS (1.1098-1.1201

Source: Our Fibonacci Calculator

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.

Not for the first time, financial markets are reminded why it’s never a good idea to get too far ahead.

So, while Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech on Friday fueled the rate-cut optimism that has aided stocks’ recovery from the early-August rout, the latest Middle East news highlights the need for caution.

Morning Bid: Rate-cut hopes meet Mid-East risks

[GVI Forex 2]

Pivotal levels setting respective tones after failures to push USD lower

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – TESTS 2024 HIGH

What caught my eye is the AUDUSD, which tested .6797 (high .6798) and then backed off.

As posted in our Weekly FX Outlook

Key target tested at the 2024 high at 6797.

Suggest .6800 is equally important as there is a void above it to .6799

Strong bid while above .6760.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHARTT – REcORD HIGH LOOMS ABOVE

I could have included XAUUSD 2500 as one of those pivotal levels.

Levels:

2543 (record high)

2508 (minor but support while above it)

2500 (key bias setter going forward)

2472 (retracement low0

[GVI Forex 2]

I don’t remember a time when all the key currencies were focused on pivotal levels, which will dictate respective tones going forward.

(EURUSD 1.12, USDJPY 145, GBPUSD 1.32, USDCAD 1.35, AUDUSD .68)

See our

Weekly FX Charts Update

 

[GVI Forex 2]

UK markets  are closed today for the Summer Bank Holiday.

[GVI Forex 2]

UK markets  are closed Monday for the Summer Bank Holiday.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

German CPI flashes on Thursday aren’t expected to show much improvement unlike Eurozone flashes on Friday where forecasters see the headline slowing to 2.3 from 2.6 percent with the HICP reading, however, only seen slowing to 2.8 from 2.9percent. Australian monthly CPI on Wednesday is expected to cool to 3.4 from 3.8 percent in a report that will help set expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move.

US durable goods orders on Monday are expected to recover only a portion of June’s sharp decline on aircraft cancellations. US consumer confidence on Tuesday is expected to remain depressed while PCE price indexes on Friday, part of the personal income and outlays report, are expected to show modest pressure on the month (up 0.2 percent) and no more than moderate pressure on the year (up 2.6 percent).

GDPs from India and Canada are both on Friday, with the former expected to slow to 6.9 from 7.8 percent year-over-year growth and the latter expected to slow to monthly growth of 0.1 from 0.2 percent.

Econoday

[SF Monedge]

Please allow me.  There are many Youtube videos referring to Quant alalysis which are quite poignant.  But they have never been the interviewer on the other side of the equation.  I ran firms, I am the one who interviews you.  I believe that sums it up.  The ball is in your court.

[SF Monedge]

I found the comments from Michael interesting due to, in part, that I am and remain a verifiable Quant.  Not Youtube Quant but real Quant.  A Quant who has actually run an investment firm and had coffee over a chair in multiple cities by invite, all paid for.  It is how this CTA approaches markets.  That said, After careful analysis I believe that person is almost absolute in analysis.

Very simply, if you take a breath and look at the math “vibration” there is a median in markets which will be met 100% of the time.  What matters as an active trader is your timing within the timing.  That is difficult.

For example, anyone can say that Euro will hit Ysquared in time.  That would be theoretically correct regardless of indicator.  The variables is what causes discount in equations, factors that cannot replace real time motion.

And so, you must factor such variations.  Which is why such things as standard deviations of 3.0% and 3.5% matter more than the usual 2/0% deviations that you hear about on any given form of media, including the more popular formats.

After back testing and real time performance, the back testing is garbage in real world scenarios when you are on the phone with a major broker.  They can tell if you are a skilled linguist or for real.

I concur with  the mention of vibration in markets.  I have a deep past with calculations that lives depend on, and so there is no room for variance.

I felt it important to acknowledge that prior to making a call for the end of week price level in various currencies.  My hit rate is 98.6%.

How you approach it is what matters based on how you attack markets and your existing tolerance levels.

[michael Calif]

that same law of vibration projects lower Euro and Yen futures prices beginning anytime this week    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

oddly enough  …  per the law of vibration, 10yr rates have bottomed for now and should move higher    :gtwo3

[Author]

Posts