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[Mtl JP]

DLRx 100.67 / 10-yr 3.856% (not kidding)

Daly came out over the week-end yakking that “the time is upon us” to cut interest rates, Asked if there is anything that could derail a rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, Daly told Bloomberg TV that it “would be hard to imagine at this point.”

This morning sofar DLRx appears to be tilting down.
There currently is little to suggest a turn to the upside unless, imo, bonds turn uP their yield. Why that would happen is reasonably prognosticated by Bill Gross:
Bloomberg – May 2, 2024 — Gross says 10-year yields will rise above 5% in a year · Government will increase debt supply to keep economy growing.”
I trust bonds as timing indicator for MY trading tactics but , currently, I can not / don’t want to afford position trading (via long DLRx for example) for a while yet.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – 4 WEEKS IN A ROW

USDCAD pattern; 4 down weeks in a row and now dependent on staying below 1.35 to keep it going.
‘
Key levels are at 1.3175 and 1.3092, still out of range but exposed if it can distance from 1.35.

Intra-day expect 1.3450 to be pivotal.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street stocks (.SPX), opens new tab are back just shy of new record highs, lapping up the likely start of Federal Reserve easing next month but wary of Wednesday’s quarterly update from artificial intelligence behemoth Nvidia (NVDA.O),

Morning Bid: Pre-Nvidia hesitation obscures record high

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MINUTE CHART – 145 NOSEBLEED?

Failure so far to maintain 145+ after pausing below Monege’s 145.25 resistance

Now needs to stay above 144.57 (suggests 144.50 as well) or risk shifts back to 144.20-25.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NEW HIGH

UK is back and GBP is in demand, both vs, the USD and on some of its crosses (EURGBP breaks below .8450)

When in unchartered waters 92+ year high), the most recent new high becomes key resistance.

The 1.3230 high has been extended, marginally so far. To guess at the next resistance zone, it would be 1.3250-80 if 1.3230 becomes support.

In any case, GBPUDD maintains a bid as long as it trades above 1.3180-00, stronger bid if above 1.3230..

[GVI Forex 2]

Main mover has been USDJPY which has tested 14)5 (high 145.17), a clear bias setting level and the midpoint of 143.59-146.50.

GBPJPY has so far been an outperformed.

No news other than an uptick in US yields

Note Monege’s 145.25 level cited yesterday

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

Key resistance 146.51 is currently out of range so…

Use 142-145 as a potential range, 143.50 midpoint blocks exposing 142 and the 141.68 low (Monday’s low was 143.44)

Limited upside unless 145+ is renewed.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TARGET HIT

Consolidating

Hit its key target at the 2024 .6797 high and then backed off.

Would need a firm break of.6800 for another 100 pips on the upside.

Room on the downside for a retracement but that is all it would be unless .6697 is taken out,

Use 6750 as one of those pivotal levels that needs to hold to contain the doiwnside.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia holds a 90% share of the Al chip market, with a 93% revenue increase and 150% operating income growth last year. Sales are expected to rise from $55.7 billion in 2024 to $150.6 billion by 2026.

NVIDIA Corporation is scheduled to report its earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, August 28, which is highlighted as a significant earnings event for the week.

Analysts expect strong results driven by high demand for enterprise Al and the company’s key position in the GPU market

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – 50k-70k?

Impressive rally off the brief sub-50K low but still just a swing within a broad range.

Only a solid 65K+ would put 70K in play again.

Levels are posted on this chart.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – RECORD HIGH STAYS UNTOUCHED

i WILL SIMPLY REPEAT WHAT i POSTED THIS MORNING’

I could have included XAUUSD 2500 as one of those pivotal levels.

Levels:

2543 (record high)

2508 (minor but support while above it)

2500 (key bias setter going forward)

2472 (retracement low0

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq 100 – NDX

Right now the Pivotal is at 19.400.00

Resistances at : 20.045.00, 20.410.00 & 20.850.00

Supports at : 19.465.00 , 19.425.00 & 18.900.00

Fall from the beginning of this month was negated by the very nice rebound, so as long as above those supports, it can continue climbing.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RECORD HIGH STILL LOOMS

Record high (5673 on this CFD chart) still looms above (not shown on this chart) with the move up so far failing shy oif it.

Does this lead to a retracement or just a consolidation range?

Watch 5600 as this could be the bias setting level.

[SF Monedge]

I believe there is considerable price magnet activity in UsdJpy at 145.25 and if seen again there may be a bit of a directional outcome after orders are worked through.

[SF Monedge]

One thing helping to keep Eur from collapsing more significantly is interest in Dow stocks, presently futures contracts are all receiving buy side interest including outside months while the Gamma in options is almost identical with calls/puts which is indicating a bit of a stalemate.

[Mtl JP]

when you are balanced you don’t trade. just analyse, cotemplate, muse

when you are on aggressive high, you are reflexive, fast on the trading trigger.

[SF Monedge]

Side note regarding how you approach markets to consider, I went on an 8 mile walk-sprint yesterday and was on a runners high by the time I got back to start looking at markets and had the sense to not trade because I was overly aggressive, positive spirits but quite animated.  When you get like that it is best to wait for the next day when your energy is more balanced.

[SF Monedge]

Fading buy side momentum and JP Morgan considering suing regulators are surely putting a little pressure on Eur to perform one might think.

[SF Monedge]

I do not like the thought of entertaining the sell side of UsdJpy until it is trading around 145 or higher so I am wiggling in and out of the buy side.  The buying in EurUsd appears to be a log of backfill on to the sell side so my approach to this one is a want to see success or failure around the 1.1200 +/- area, so I am on the fence for today with Euro and more interested in Yen.  The volatility has been better in Yen at lease for my way of doing things.

[GVI Forex 2]

Hi Michael

It depends on your time horizon.

I am happy with the EURUSD bounce off the 50% FIBO accompanied by EURGBP bounce off .8450 lending support.

[Author]

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