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[GVI Forex 2]

US BOND YIELDS SLIPPING, MAY BE WEIGHIBG ON THE USD

[GVI Forex 2]

XBRUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Oil takes a dive

On this CFD feed, XBR continues to slip and faces a key support at 75.89

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1h

Strategy that I posted yesterday worked more than well today.

Read HERE

Pair came exactly to the Support line at 1.10340

Resistances : 1.10450, 1.10600 & 1.10800

If Support is taken out, we can expect 1.09850 to be seen.

[GVI Forex 2]

Heatmap

AUDUSD => underperformer BREAKDOWN LEVEL WAS .6751, intra-day double bottom at .6730)

AUDJPY => Biggest loser

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, here is the key daily USDX trendline

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street gets September off to a late start with a holiday- shortened week that focusses squarely on the U.S. jobs market after last month’s unemployment rate scare sparked a mini panic.

Critical to that thinking will be the August payrolls report on Friday, with consensus forecasts for a pick-up in jobs growth to 160,000 last month and a retreat in the jobless rate to 4.2%.

Before then we get a whole heap of other labor market soundings – private sector surveys and layoffs data for August, July job opening numbers and another weekly jobless readout.

Morning Bid: Labor Day to labor report as Sept kicks off

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Downtrend consolidating

EURGBP, while consolidating between .8398-.8435, is lower today and this has weighed on the EURUSD (but still holding above 1.1030) while GBPUSD has followed with a lag.

So, if trading EURUSD and/or GBPUSD, keep an eye on this cross.

[Mtl JP]

SOME WAYS TO GO
Early birds ?

THE T-LINE DRAWN FROM 30 07 104.54 thru 15 08’s 103.05
has alraedy been broken but has yet to punch thru 101.85

10-yr at 6:19 AM 3.905%

My Theme: fearless markets vs fearsome bond market

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – PRE-BOC JITTERS

As posted in our FX Weekly Chart Outlook
‘
‘Look for the focus to be on the BoC meeting on Wednesday where a rate cut is widely expected.

In the meantime, 1.35 is one of those pivotal levels that would need to be solidly renewed along with a break of 1.3515 to suggest the bottom is in for now.

Given the absence of nearby resistance after the straight line move down, use our FIBO calculator for retracements to find levels of potential resistance beyond 1.35..

[GVI Forex 2]

US ISM MANUFACTURING CHART

(Click on any item in our Economic Calendar to see a chart for that item)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX DAILY CHART – SOME WAYS TO GO

Looking at a USDX chart shows it would have a ways to go before testing key resistance levels (103.20-55)

Using the index as a EURUSD proxy (57.6% of the index), you can see how its bounce coincided with the EURUSD retreat.

Scroll down this page to see key EURUSD levels.

For today, one focus is on how markets react to the US ISM data,

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BACK TO 2500

Gold can’t make up its mind but the bounce off 2480 keeps 2500 as the ultimate bias setter.

2480 is the bottom of a narrow range,

2507 is the top of a narrow range with a void to 2527-32 while above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

Scroll down to see the EURUSD post as it trades just above 1.1030 support.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – TYPICAL FALSE START?

As I noted in the Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Note the start of a new quarter and post-summer often sees false starts and whipsaws until market settle on a theme and recover full liquidity.

Well, there was one already in USDJPY after it failed to reach 147.34 (high 14t.20) as has since back off.

Catalyst: Weaker equities (risk off)

This ;leaves 145 as the ultimate bias setter in a market that will keep an eye as to whether this correlation continues.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.915% up a bit

so is DLRx

[SF Monedge]

Jay spot on

[GVI Forex 2]

TUE: Swiss CPI (Aug), Swiss GDP (Q2), Turkish CPI (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), Final Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

See our Economic Calendar

 

[GVI Forex 2]

How markets react to data this week will give a clue as to whether the dollar can regain its legs and/or stocks can extend the end of august rally.

How these markets end the week will be more important than how they start it.

Here are the key events and detailed previews:

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: Highlights include US NFP & ISMs; BoC rate decision, Canada jobs; Australian GDP and Swiss CPI

[SF Monedge]

Jay – concur on that comparison.  You could see the money flow moving from Yen to Franc.  Spot on, thank you.

[GVI Forex 2]

Summary
Swiss franc more appealing in carry trades after yen blow-up
Investors hope for stability, aided by central bank
Yet safe-haven status can lead to big rallies

LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) – As investors turn to the Swiss franc as an alternative to Japan’s yen to fund carry trades, the risk of the currency staging one of its rapid rallies remains ever present.

Swiss franc carry trade comes fraught with safe-haven rally risk

[Author]

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