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[Mtl JP]

on yak deck
–
11:00 – waller on “econ outlook” as always his own and not speaking on behalf of the FED gang

[GVI Forex 2]

Market pricing for a 50bps rate cut at the Sept meeting has fallen back despite the jobs data and stocks seem ti be following accordingly.

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar losing steam after stocks failed to hold 5500…

[michael Calif]

yesterday post:      ignore the news, trade the time sequence charts, buy any USD decline; sell any SP500 rally     :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

I was going to say 1 + 1 = 3 day but then looked at bond yields, which are higher

FWIW EURUSD so far holding the 1.1074-75 area,,,if it goes then 1.1040-50 next support

[GVI Forex 2]

FX Twilight Zone… using the EURUSD as the anti-dollar, watch 1.11 as thi will be your USD indicator

Last at 1.1106 vs. 1.1155 post data high, opost data Twilight Zone low was 1.1077

[GVI Forex 2]

So far stocks have bounced in hope Fed throws it a lifeline in a tug-of-war between a weaker economy and lower rates.

S&P 5500 remains the pivotal level.

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed’s Wiiliams speaks in 10 minutes.

[GVI Forex 2]

No idea why dollar initially moved up but thank you for the gift.

[GVI Forex 2]

NFP miss on downside plus downward revision

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART -RANGE?

As I have been noting XAUUSD has been trading in a symmetric 0 pip range either side of 2500, a level that sets its bias.

It is currently back above 2500 so trading with a bid (as can be seen by the rising red Amazing Trader ladder lines)  but would need to take out 2531 to break the current range

[Belgrade Bobby]

Incoming Data

Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Sept. 6 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Friday looks set to play out like a concentrated version of what markets have been navigating all year – what’s the fine balance for the U.S. economy to both dodge recession and allow interest rates to come down at the same time.

Morning Bid: Payrolls, Williams and Waller – a big decider

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.31600 , 1.31200 & 1.30850

Resistances : 1.31950 , 1.32450 & 1.32650

To be able to continue Up, it has to stay above 1.31500.

What I don’t like with this picture is the fact that Cable tends to go in the deeper corrections after such a Rally.

Playing on the Top is never an easy game – so avoid making big conclusions right now – this is 50:50 situation.

I am going to go on a limb now and say it clearly : I expect Cable to nose dive from around here .

But what I expect or want is not necessarily what will happen.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – 142 DEFENSE?

While 141,68 is a ley level (recent low) the key level is at 140.22 (and 140 belownit).

So far, a hidden hand seems to be protecting 142 with key levels looming below.

On the upside, there is little of note until above 143.40-50.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – LEVELS TO WATCH

AS THIS CHART SHOWS:

1.1120-40-90-1.1201

(1.1100 is pivotal) – 1.1075-1.1040

(Note GBPUSD dip just now as EURUSD popped higher)

[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

So let’s say it like this…

We are all waiting for a jobs report that will be revised in the following month and then further revised down the road as we saw recently (by 818k jobs lower) and multi-billions will be traded on it.

And markets assume the Fed will base its rate decision on the data!

[Mtl JP]

early worm and the bird

fwiw — posted earlier:
curtesy zh: “Unknown Traders Put On Huge Bet Jobs Report Will Be So Hot, It Sends 10Y Yield Above 4.00%”

[Mtl JP]

GVI 7:12 – What jobs numbers would reverse the markets

4.1% jobless rate,  175k upward revision

Or continue

4.3% 120-140k

No revision

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