Odds are we see UsdJpy 143.50 post data release in my glass ball, which would be fairly counter intuitive one might think. We could easily see much lower figures such as 142 or under first.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.
The first cut might be the deepest in some cases, but in the case of the Federal Reserve, it would seem not. Wednesday’s monthly inflation report showed a surprise tick up in core inflation that was enough to knock expectations for a jumbo half-point cut from the Fed next week on the head.
5500, as suggested proved pivotal with the move back above it squeezing the shorts.
With the 61.8% level tested, a move above it would suggest the bottom (with a higher low) may be in. Othrwise, it can still be considered a retracement.
In any case, 5500 remains pivotal with a limited downside if it can stay above it.
With GBPUSD pausing just above 1.30, it is far enough from its 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) daily mvas to consider whether this is still just a retracement.
I don’t see much damage having been done to the dominant sell bias in UsdJpy going back months and will prefer that side but I do expect a bit more conviction on the buy side in coming days likely.