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[Mtl JP]

Sensible …   BE SENSIBLE …

I say don’t be sensible – BE PROFITABLE !

Forget Dudley ( in FT), forget powell’s advisor, (FED wants you to think IT is focus on everything labor.)

As long as players keep on being anxious, the DLR is likely to be tilted to the downside.

I like to watch certain monkies in the jungle as sentries “coz they know” and one such animal currently is the USDJPY’s 140.20-18ish.  All sorts of dominos plays will trigger if the yen goes stronger.

[SF Monedge]

With all much due respect to those of the belief the FED will cut by .50, most of the actual executives you listen to think that thought is absurd and we will have a .25 basis cut.  A 50 would shock the system and scream of inefficiency and recklessness, not to mention deep problems within the economy.  A 25 basis cut would be more logical in almost all ways.  The lack of a cut would also rattle markets as it would demonstrate lingering problems and not a “mission accomplished” position, which is what the business world is hoping to hear.  There are already trillions of capital adjustments that have transacted in both business and finance in projection  of a .25 basis cut.

Be sensible people.

[Ab hk]

gold buyers are still in place, need to hear the clear whistle before big play, next Tue?

 

btw, bitcoin is very mute, capital just moved one from another

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up is U of M Consumer Sentiment… note that subscribers receive the report a few minutes before data hits the wires.

[GVI Forex 2]

Latest Fed pricing for a 50bps rate cut is now about 50/50… may be weighing on the USD

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up (10-year3.67%)…it is hard to see big bets on the size of the Fed rate cut next week given current pricing close to 50/50

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.31150 , 1.30550 & 1.30000

Resistances : 1.31550 , 1.31900 & 1.32450

Pretty clear situation , with two scenarios :

–          1.30550 holds it’s grounds – we’ll be turning Up

–          1.30550 taken out – we’ll be gunning for 1.28500

Close tonight is very important and might give us a clue on coming days.

I’ll post an update late tonight.

[GVI Forex 2]

Current Fed pricing for a 50bps rate cut is 43% vs. 15% after the CPI report

[GVI Forex 2]

So far

EURUSD 1.11, GBPUSD 1.3150, USDJPY above 140.21 (low 140.36) proving tough

[GVI Forex 2]

Sept 13 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

What a difference a day makes. Just 24 hours ago, investors were coming to terms with the idea that a half-point rate cut next week from the Federal Reserve was unlikely and a quarter-point drop was much more in line with a soft-landing scenario.

A couple of articles by closely followed Fed correspondents in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal overnight, along with comments from influential former Fed official Bill Dudley, have been enough to flip those assumptions on their head. It’s now pretty much 50/50 as to whether the Fed goes 25 basis points or 50 on Sept. 18.

Morning Bid: A golden Fed cut

[GVI Forex 2]

   In our blog

Is There a Hidden Hand Defending USDJPY 140?

[Mtl JP]

now this is more to my interest:

2-year Treasury yield slides as investors assess interest rate outlook

[Mtl JP]

Federal Reserve will opt for slow policy easing as there’s ‘still work to do’ on inflation, Fitch says
– on cnbc

[Mtl JP]

comedy relief at the FED

The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?
By Nick Timiraos, Sept. 12, 2024

That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – FRIDAY THE 13TH

1.1091 nicked only so far but 1.11, midpoint of 1.10-1.12 is probably more important in dictating whether EURUSD makes a fresh run at the 1.1201 high.

On the upside, the key trendline (see chart) would need to be broken to expose 1.1155 as a target.

On the downside, keeps a bid as long as it trades above 1.1055.

Otherwise, it is Friday the 13th if you are superstitious.

[GVI Forex 2]

Timely article in our blog (scroll below for the link)

Is There a Hidden Hand Defending USDJPY 140?

[GVI Forex 2]

10 year bond yield 3.634%, -4.4 bps

Reuters article headlines

Dollar dives to 2024 low, gold at record high on revived bets for jumbo Fed cut

orker Rights
ECB dents traders’ hopes for October rate cut

[GVI Forex 2]

   In our blog

Is There a Hidden Hand Defending USDJPY 140?

[SF Monedge]

It took all US session but price has finally arrived at levels where I think a bit of what if pre-Friday pricing begins to surface including overnight.  Otherwise it has been a go with the grain day solidly.  Asia will show it if present.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

Supports : 2530.00 , 2500.00 & 2470.00

Resistances : 2590.00 , 2620.00 & 2730.00

If what we have seeing in last two months was a consolidation phase, this might be a start of the Rally.

Two levels come to mind in that case : 2750 & 2850

Mind you, market has no brains – I still remember Gold at 250 ( yes, didn’t miss a zero here – two hundred and fifty ), and at that time I had a problem calming down some big clients , forcing them to hold on their gold ( physical ) .

Now in this time of uncertainty , what better then Gold ?

[Author]

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