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[Rafe]

G2P means government handing over all of the money it collects back to the population as welfare… and not having any left to support it’s welfare payment system… either they pay by social security or have to spend on municipal services or some other form of welfare for use by the population…

[Rafe]

JP// Thanks I needed that… I was thinking this last week and then this week an article comes out on the same thing… but corrections are not signs of a healthy trend… they make a profit yes, but do not generate wealth… on profit’s one has to pay tax then that money has to be reinvested, and remember you pay to buy and sell and then again have to pay to buy and sell… but then when a trend goes back to where it started then where is the profit in that…? Corrections are a sign of people’s money getting stuck AND for a healthy growing economy you need “high velocity movement of large sums of money”… B2G and B2B and B2C. The way it is now is G2P or government paying Soc Sec over to the population.

[Mtl JP]

Rafe … more for your analytical mind:

Treasury Secretary Bessent says White House is heading off a ‘guaranteed’ financial crisis
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/16/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-white-house-is-heading-off-financial-crisis.html

[Rafe]

So when they find drugs floating in the sea and so forth, they can put it on a C-130 and air drop the packages from high onto the streets… it’s the least they can do… out of kindness… it would reach a point of equilibrium and no drugs… They can even air drop the drugs back into those countries using “ha flyin chinese gas biags”.

[Rafe]

—And since USA has problems with terrorism they can re-route those shipments for sale back into the country of origin not necessarily the country of production but country from which it is landed, so if they flood the USA with drugs then USA will help terrorists to flood those countries of origin with 3 times more both in terms of street value and quantity, for every 1 user in the USA the countries of origin need to have 3 users.

Some countries try intentionally to destabilize the USA so the USA can return the favor thrice more… To keep the streets clean… Reciprocality would serve it’s purpose very well here…

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Positive start but…

Positive start to the week but to make anything more to it last week’s high at 5749 would need to be taken out.

Otherwise, dependent of 5600 holding as support to keep hopes of a further retracement alive.

[Rafe]

hassett said wha? that things would clear up when tariff’s wha?

What cheap products does the USA produce to offset cheaper priced imports other than placing tariffs on other countries while those same countries may first levy export duties which will be tariff-ed by mass importer USA?

Is USA planning to export ganja to other countries?

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 102.94
–
tariff uncertainty fear is a strong theme with currebtly strong sentiment
to try evaluate that would probably push expectation for the USDx to somewhere the 102 – 100 range

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar is slipping across-the-board… as noted, there was no apparebt catalyst although equities, while off the earlier highs, are maintaining positive gains on the day.

[Mtl JP]

more uncertainty over tariff candy

Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett warns of more uncertainty over tariffs

* National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett warned of “some uncertainty” in the coming weeks related to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

* But Hassett predicted that things will clear up when the Trump administration implements its plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” next month.

* Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have declined to rule out the possibility that the U.S. could enter a recession.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.20 = key Support here
–
every political chicken is screaming “tariff = uncertainty”

China is an economic basket case screaming that IT needs 100% tariff of its cars OFF (in europ, US, canada)
why ? it needs work for its peasants … all the while interest on its deficits and debt are running astronimically exponential . Europe is being “thankful” to donald for forcing it into “investing” billions into military spending, calling it an economic boost.

In the meantime on deck this week:
Fed, BoE, BoJ, BCCh — players are expecting all to stay pat
players appear to give some odds SNB will cut 25

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back down to pre-data levels and USD is following, including vs the JPY.

XAUUSD edging up towards 3000 again.

Otherwise no fresh news behind the moves.

[GVI Forex 2]

Not much reaction

 

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 1.4313

From Bobby’s earlier post

Direction on 4h – Down

Pattern – More Down

Supports: 1.43450, 1.43300 & 1.43050

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk on with stocks up… commodity currencies up, JPY down

For GTA members, see the US500 Chart of the Week

[GVI Forex 2]

What has been working for me is usung EURUSD 1.08845 like a pivot.

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed retail salaes… headline miss vs rest of the report…big miss in Empire manuf ignored … stocks, bond yields, dollar all tick up

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[GVI Forex 2]

US retail sales up next … See our Economic Data Calendar

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCAD 4H

Resistances: 1.43600, 1.43750 & 1.43850

Supports: 1.43450, 1.43300 & 1.43050

Direction on 4h – Down

Pattern – More Down

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures are softer & Crude bid after Trump orders strikes in Yemen; US Retail Sales due

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

• US Senate voted 54-46 to pass the stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through September 30th.
• European bourses modestly firmer whilst US futures are in negative territory.
• USD is a touch softer ahead of a risk-packed week; Antipodeans benefit from Chinese data and as China unveiled a plan to boost weak consumption.
• EGBs bid with OATs leading after Fitch while Bunds await fiscal updates.
• Gas deflates after US President Trump said he will speak with Russia’s President Putin on Tuesday and may have something to announce on Ukraine-Russia talks by Tuesday.

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