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As we wait for the Fed to make its widely anticipated interest rate decision, this is one that could go either way. The debate is not whether the Fed will cut rates but by how much.
Will the Fed Cut Rates by 25 or 50 bps.?
As any trader knows, it is the reaction to news (e.g. economic reports, monetary policy decisions0 that counts. This is where the saying Buy the rumor, sell the fact comes from. It also reminds me of the old trading adage, It is the reaction to news, more than the news itself that matters.
Will There Be a Forex Trading Surprise This Week?
Nasdaq – NDX
Nasdaq composite: Once again, it’s make-or-break for breadth
Dow futures up slightly, S&P 500 slip, Nasdaq 100 off ~0.5%Sep NY Fed Manufacturing index 11.5 vs -4.75 estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%
Dollar down; bitcoin off ~2; gold edges up; crude up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~3.66%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ONCE AGAIN, IT’S MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR BREADTH
The Nasdaq composite IXIC is still down more than 5% from its record highs. That said, the tech-laden index is on a five day win streak, and just posted its biggest weekly rise since early-November 2023.S&P 500 – SPX
S&P 500 ends little changed as early gains fade before Fed decision
Microsoft gains after new share-buyback plan, dividend hike
Intel gains following collaboration with Amazon’s AWS
Retail sales unexpectedly rise in August
The benchmark S&P 500 index touched 5,670.81 earlier in the session, after fresh economic data eased worries of a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Watch 142
let’s keep it simple:
1) Failure ti stay below 140 has seen a rebound… price action suggest JOY crosses have been a factor
2) Need to hold above 142 for 143.04 ro be a target… Look for 142 to be pivotal in setting the tone
3) Only back below 1541.40 would put 140 back on the radar.
As USDJPY sniffs at 142 again, here are retracement levels for 161.93-139.57 using our Fibonacci Calculator</a>
US500 4 HOUR CHART – New High Then….
It seems more logical for caution TO set in after setting a new record high given early price moves seemed to be driven MORE by money market pricing shifting in favor of a 50bps Fed rate cut than the actual event.
In any case, it is still more than a day until the Fed decision so expect defense more thaN offense to dominate until that time.
I suggest reading the articles in our blog for a view on whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50bps.
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