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[Rafe]

fwiw…FED will hold or hike… according to me it is either of the two…

Traders will face unprecedented losses if FED doesnt cut by at least 50bps…

Specs make profits then attack the dollar isn’t it?…

[SF Monedge]

It is fun to remember that our comments in GVI are being watched.  I found a comment I made here from about a week ago regarding market conditions in the comment section (verbatim cut and paste) by someone in the forum of an online media source in the UK last night just while entertaining the mind reading peoples perspectives.  I left it alone of course, why chastise someone for no good reason.  Good job GVI.  The content here holds value.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

To repeat, this is a good illustration of what it is like trading in a semi-illiquid market with many on the sidelines waiting for the FOMC.

GBPUSD backed off after pausing below 1.3266 but remains above 1.32,.

1.32 will be pivotal post-FOMC

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUASD 15 MINUTE CHART

This is a good illustration of what it is like trading in a semi-illiquid market with many on the sidelines waiting for the FOMC.

EURUSD hit a wall at 1.1140 but still above 1.11.

1.11 will be pivotal post-FOMC

[SF Monedge]

Part of what is keeping Dx buoyed is apprehension in stocks ahead of the FED.  The conviction is lukewarm in dollar though, hence a bit of two-way motion including other markets-wide components.  It is important to remember a lot of pricing in has already transpired but there are also ongoing global transactions taking place in import/export and the like so this is fluid.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART

Key resistance is t the 1.3266 high… high so far 1,3254 and then backing off

Move up suggest real money buying (note my earlier pot above EURGBP) with many traders sitting on their hands ahead of the FOMC

Note US bond yields moving up pre-FOMC (10-year at 3.69%)

[Mtl JP]

Wsj’s timiraos is trying a last pro – kick at 50 pt cut in this morn’s edition claiming that 50 bps is not reserved for “severe” condition

only at 2pm will we be able to see the strenght of his “whispering”

with market significantly pricing odds of 50 pointer, I got me some popcorn to see if the FED plies to these plaeyrs

[SF Monedge]

Interestingly forwards and other items on UsdJpy are being bought strongly, which is counter intuitive to a rate cut.  Either they are right and get golden parachutes after volatility the pair goes up, or a lot of people are going to have to answer to the boss after today.

[GVI Forex 2]

Worth noting USDJPY touched 142 but went no farther (last 141.72)

GBP getting some flows after inflation data… EURGBP extending its low (last .8409)

Otherwise it is a wait and see until Fed time, USD is a touch softer

Bond yields a touch higher

Stocks holding up

But a new ball game after the Fed decision

Until then, market bets are still for a 50bps rate cut, not sure if it is based on hope, prayer or a stronger conviction.

[GVI Forex 2]

FOMC

Besides the size of the rate cut and accompanying statement, keep an eye on the dot plot.

What is the dot plot?

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dot plot is a chart that shows the projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for the federal funds rate. The dot plot is published quarterly, and is a tool used to help the public understand the Fed’s thinking on interest rates and the economy.(AI Overview)

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

There’s little left to say about the dominant event of the day – other than how to game markets’ reaction to the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later and what Fed policymakers project over the horizon.

Few, if any, doubt the first Fed easing of the cycle is now at hand. Wall Street’s S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab hit a new intra-day record on Tuesday ahead of the decision – lapping up the prospect of lower borrowing costs even as the economy picks up some steam. Stock futures held firm overnight into the big decision.

Morning Bid: Flirting with records as Fed rates finally fade

[Mtl JP]

On Deck Today
–
14:00 – FOMC Econ Projections
14:00 – FOMC Statement
14:00 – FOMC Int Rate Decision
14:30 – FOMC Press Conf

[Mtl JP]

GAP and DLRx (100.38)

DLR continues to wobble as market positioning on FED size of rate cuts is still bi-polar

[Mtl JP]

10-YR 3.666% // EURO 1.1137

unless the FED does a “75” euro 1.12-ish should be tuff Res

[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fed Watch now 65/35% for a 50bps rate cut… USD ticks down as % goes up

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – Up while waiting for the Fed

AUDUSD break of .6766 targets .6824 as long as it trades above it.

Supports below this level are at .6750/40/30 but key post-FOMC level is .6689

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE FOMC

Whatever “real money” flow that drove USDJPY higher yesterday seems to have run its course for now after a stall below 142.50.

This leaves the focus on the pivotal 142 level as the current bias setter in a market that is on hold now waiting for the FOMC decision.

Intra-day range so far  141.22-142.46 (124 pips) vs an 18 pip range for the EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fed Watch show 61/39 for a 50bps rate cut.

[GVI Forex 2]

A global-view member sent me this

Amid Record Uncertainty, Traders Face Unprecedented Losses If Fed Doesn’t Cut 50

Record uncertainty, perhaps. But traders are also acting as if they have never been more confident of a 50bps rate cut! – zh

[GVI Forex 2]

A global-view member sent me this

Amid Record Uncertainty, Traders Face Unprecedented Losses If Fed Doesn’t Cut 50

Record uncertainty, perhaps. But traders are also acting as if they have never been more confident of a 50bps rate cut! – zh

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