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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART _ Month end or more?

Bounce from 1.3373 double bottom

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

GBPUSD remains an outperformer, trading at a level not seen since early 2022.

With the next key level not until above 1.37, use the most recent high (1.3434) as key resistance.

On the downside, 1.3310 is the make or break level, keeping the risk on the high while above it.

Logic says for GBPUSD to make a serious break to a new high, EURUSD would need to establish above 1.12 and/or EURGBP would need to make another leg down.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

This Is another case where the end of the week will be more important than how it starts out (quarter end).

Weekly FX Chart Outlook – Sept 30 – Oct 4

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Riding China coattails

AUDUSD extended its high (by just a couple of pips) to .6941 as it continues (along with the NZD) to ride the wave of Chinese stimulus and surge in Chinese stocks.

Looking ahead, with Chinese markets closed the rest of the week for a holiday, it remains to be seen whether AUDUSD will take a breather without a catalyst from China stocks.

Otherwise, risk continues to point up towards .70+ with support as long as it trade above .6895 (fallback support .6868).

[GVI Forex 2]

Once we get through month/quarter end and the 4PM London fixing flows, attention will shift to Powell’s speech on the economic outlook.

The focus will be on whether he sees odds for a soft landing and/or looks to dampen expectations of 50bps rate cut in favor of a 25bps reduction.

Logic says there is too much uncertainty. including the election and a looming East coast dock strike starting tomorrow to give a strong hint on rates either way.

[SF Monedge]

The change leadership with a new Prime Minister in Japan, Ishiba, is being widely seen as a supportive condition for Yen strength going forward and that includes against the US Dollar.  There will be cycles within cycles of course, your job is to attack those cycles well.

And so if someone says the Dollar is bullish, that may well be the case in the larger picture or even intermediate picture.  It does not mean that bouts of dollar weakness during that condition will lack punch.

My expectation is that Japanese stocks might have a bit of a hiccup this week and Yen has a stride to it overall.  That said, I try to not form too much an opinion when participating.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week begins early, on Monday Korean and Japanese time with both countries’ releases of monthly industrial production and retail sales data. Wrapping up the week on Friday will be the US Employment Situation report for September, one of the two or three reports that will be key for determining the rate decision at the next FOMC meeting on November 7.

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

The Savvy trader is a nickname I gave to a long-time, highly respected Global-View member who has been sharing hi view on USDJPY after calling the top well in advance of the 161.93 high.

In this article he shares his thoughts on the market and looks ahead.

Forex Technical Outlook from the Savvy Trader

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead Highlights include US NFP, ISMs, EZ CPI, Japan Tankan & OPEC+ JMMC

[GVI Forex 2]

            Alert

Monday, September 30

1:55 EDT

Speech — Chair Jerome H. Powell

Economic Outlook
At the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Nashville, Tenn.

[GVI Forex 2]

The following is a review of the broker Eightcap, not from a reviewer but from a veteran trader with decades of experience.

Forex Broker Review – Eightcap A Trusted Broker

[GVI Forex 2]

Not a one way Friday although USDJPY has been one way since the overight black hole.

[michael Calif]

re-post:    Law of Time, decline in USD futures since late June has ended    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

Food for thought.

1.      Why would you pay attention to a “bias indicator” based on the total of retail customers of a brokers client base knowing the vast majority of retail traders are wrong and lose their money?  Nice gimmick.

2.      A well known and highly frequented  FX “advisor” frequently quoted in news feeds, primarily to retail audience noted very early this morning before the action really hit that “UsdChf is trading flat, best to stay away.”  Why?  Would it not be better to learn how and why to be active in it successfully?  The pair dropped over 100 points in a short period of time.  They don’t know what they are doing beyond  average in my opinion.  They do have solid informational value if you are novice.

3.      Why would you not listen to a highly skilled and very kind former bank Trader like Jay Meisler instead?  Or a former in demand CTA such as myself or the other actual and very skilled former bank traders who frequently post here in GVI?

I sold UsdJpy right before it collapsed last night in late Asia.  I have been long AudUsd since yesterday.  I have been short UsdChf since yesterday against a lot of opinions to be long US Dollar.  I have been long GbpUsd since yesterday.  Picking away at EurJpy on both sides the entire way.  You won’t find that with Youtube or TikTok gurus or the aforementioned not as stellar as advertised advisory sources which are popular.

You will find it here in GVI.

Disclaimer – I am not paid by GVI or under contract with GVI in any fashion.  I am simply commenting in the hope of being helpful and enjoy the input from others here.

[SF Monedge]

If you have followed my posts you may have noticed I have pointed out what I call price magnets at 100.90 and 100.50 DX which I have been keying trades off of going back a ways.  There is also a cycle area at 100.60/70 which I see as quite possibly hit very soon where the market will take a breath and re-assess.  It is an intermediate cycle area, which includes two other value areas which I will not mention due to not being important today.  The dominant cycle areas are much further out in price, with the lowest area of that cycle being right at 100.  This is not Macd or linear regression, or Gann, or a number of other methods.  It does include pattern recognition because, frankly I think it is a must to at least have a moderate understanding of market patterns.

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday’s often turns into one way markets after the 4 PM London… maybe not today, just stay alert

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – PAUSE?

XAUUSD so far not setting new high, which would break a string of 5 record days in a row.

The 2 blue AAT line, otherwise know as a directional indicator, how a potential change in direction.
‘
HOWEVER, for this to be anything more than a pause, 2650-54 would need to be taken out.

AT stand for The Amazing Trader

[GVI Forex 2]

Barclays also calling for an ECB rate cut in October

[SF Monedge]

Purely because I want to help.  I sold UsdJpy before the results in late Asia.  I am sure you can see the result.

A brief expansion of prior post regarding UsdJpy and Japan’s new leader.  The reason I know about why the pair was obliterated is because I am very much like a CTA.  Because I was one.  What separates a lot of people from the pack is dedication.  I know about the change in leadership in Japan because I was active and absorbing mass amounts of vital information during the Asian session.  Which I do every night, even on Saturdays and Sundays.  I do not participate based on gimmicks offered by brokers or youtube stars, or TikTok stars.

Final note on the subject and then back to markets – If I were you I would listen to Jay with GVI.  He was a real bank trader, and a very good one.  Not the kind who was a bank trader but not talented but tries to sell themselves on youtube.  An actual, solid, talented bank trader.  If you do not think he is good you are fooling yourself.

Very simply, dedication and a professional approach.  Not pajama trading approach.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s see if I can sum it up

Bigger reaction in FX than in rate expectation (52/48 for a 50bps rate cut)

EURUSD: Tepid test of 1.12
GBPUSDL Paused below its 1.3434 high
USDJPY: Extended its overnight low to 142.50
AUDUSD: New high

[SF Monedge]

GVI – at 1:16 pm … Then I feel bad for those who would follow the sentiment indicators of brokers, which are primarily retail trader based and thus not a good idea at all in my opinion.  One needs to learn to know for yourself where to be in markets or you are flipping a coin.

[Author]

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