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[SF Monedge]

If/when EurJpy 159.90 gives way that pair is not going to be a happy dancer.

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk on bounce after Iran finished its attack, which appears to have been repelled.. still a risk of Israel retaliation but so far some relief

[GVI Forex 2]

This i a timely article in our blog

How Should You Trade in a Geopolitical Market

[SF Monedge]

Contrary to popular belief in some circles, US arms sales to Israel have not declined in recent years.  The average annual sales to Israel were just over $1 Billion from the years 2015 through 2019, with not even ½ of $1 Billion in 2019.

In the year 2020 that figure skyrocketed to over $5.3 Billion US Dollars. – Per Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Side note but related, I am still on the sell side of EurJpy and UsdChf primarily for the moment.

[GVI Forex 2]

Iran attacks… dollar up but seems wait and see

[Mtl JP]

market things spiking
as headlines saying iran sending missiles at israel

crude uP, euro down 1.1050, gold uP, gbpusd down,
dlrx 101.08

[Sal London]

The stats, which get put up on places like Bloomberg TV showing September, as being generally a stock market negative month – the reality is as we both know that October is always the true risk month

the expensiveness of the stock market with the rundown into November elections with the Geo political risk that is obvious, I would anticipate a lower stock market in October with the risk of a decent pullback.

My guess is that the world in the 2 weeks before November is going to grind to a juddering halt and only once we know the outcome of the US elections will normality return and then a Christmas rally from The FED and from a lower stock market base can occur

You can see in the USD index that 100 or just above has been supporting the dollar now for a while so today’s move is not really surprising

[SF Monedge]

Iran is about to make the mistake that gives the US, Britain, Canada, and other western allies the excuse to change the chess board.

Iran should give back the thousands of military vehicles and aircraft Obama/Biden/Harris in the billions of US dollars and the entire administration left behind in the putrid and embarrassing withdrawal of US forces in Afghanistan that cost many US personnel their lives as a good will gesture.  While they have the chance.  Because after November the landscape could be quite different.

[GVI Forex 2]

Here’s the latest

Iran attack expected in the next 12 hours

Attacks are expected to be greater in scope than those in April

Clearly risk off but is FX more defensive than a run for cover other than flows into the USD

[SF Monedge]

Advancing shares are putting up a decent fight against declining shares but it is largely defense, oil, military and other risk off related instruments.  I am also short EurJpy from above.  Beepers are selling at a discount today.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1082
–
LOOKS LIKE PUPPY S GOING TO HEAD SOUTH
looking at 1.1055 st SUp., and subsequnt run to 1.10 Sup and test
odds of N of 1.12 currently look feeble

[GVI Forex 2]

ALERT

Chatter that Iran attack could come in coming hours

CGF and JPY getting safe haven flows.

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS beats on upside, ISM slight miss, prices paid weaker

See our Economic Calendar

[SF Monedge]

On that note I am entertaining the sell side of UsdChf post data from a bit higher than current market.  Overall bias is still strong USD but this is likely an isolated very near term sell cycle and might not last long.

[SF Monedge]

No change in Usd buy side strength YET.  I see adjustment to 101.10 now as a break point if it is to collapse significantly.  I would not bet on risk appetite today with Iran about to make the mistake of attacking Israel.

[michael Calif]

re-post:   per Law of Time, the decline in USD futures since late June has ended.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Here’s the story

“The US has indications that Iran intends to carry out a missile attack against Israel in the immediate future”. according to a Senior White House official cited by Axio’ Ravid

Source. Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

ALERT:

Oil spiked, stocks slipped, gold popped after a report that the US has indications that Iran intend toi carry out a missile attack on Israel

[Belgrade Bobby]

I would like to clarify one important thing :

We both agree on 1.10500 !

But other supports that I cite  coming below it are kind of bus stops….won’t be able to turn it up again, just slow it down – very important for intraday trading on smaller times frames.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.1079 last

So far a pause just ahead of our 1.1068 support (cited in prior post),which is a key level because…

…There is a black hole below it until major support at 1.1001 except of course the pivotal 1.1050 level

[Author]

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