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[michael Calif]

repost:    the decline in USD futures since late June has ended; current rall will continue til at least Oct 23 per Law of Time    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

The AT Alert in EURGBP (short) is still active and well in the black but needs another 10 pips on the downside to hit its target. In any case. it caught the shift in directional risk… scroll down to see video posted below

[GVI Forex 2]

To keep it simple

EURUSD upside is limited a long as it trade below 1.10

USDJPY downside is limited if it can stay above 148 but scaled down interest as long a it is above 147.20

Geopolitical risks ahead of the weekend.

Monday Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, so another reason to be cautious into the weekend.

[SF Monedge]

GVI – 2:13 …….. I was just about to post something to that effect.  The activity in UsdJpy is reflecting that with a return so far to what amounts to sideways activity in both spot and in futures and in options and forwards and other metrics.  Someone would have a difficult time convincing me we are headed into a rose garden this Friday.  Not to sound pessimistic.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks backing off after sugar highs following the US jobs report.

As noted earlier, once the dust settles after the US jobs report, there is the geopolitical risks over the weekend to consider.

[SF Monedge]

Dow 421.70 and 421.20 are pivotal areas if the Index is to hold the buy side intraday in my view.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FedWatch odds now 5/95 against a 50 bops hike so all but factored out for noiw.

[SF Monedge]

You had to expect UsdJpy to pull back around the open of US stocks. As long at 102.30 area holds positions should be safe with buy side positions for now but it is becoming a bit steep.

[SF Monedge]

Word to the wise: Any time there is economic data, the financial “experts” you listen to predominantly explain what the impact is and why based on their political leaning.  Today’s data was decent.  And so some are giddy as if inflation was never present after 2020 and was the devil prior to 2020.

Others are more sane.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FEDWATCH: 12/88 ODDS AGAINST A 50 BPS fED RATE CUT IN NOV VS 30/70 AGAINST A CUT PRE-DATA

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDNZD DAILY CHART – BID AHEAD OF RBNZ

This cross has been bid ahead of next week; RBNZ meeting where a 50bps cut is expected.

Expect support on dips as long a it stays above 1.10.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD (last 1.0971)

IF BREAK OF 1.10 HOLDS THEN SUPPORT TARGETS ARE 1.0949 AND 1.0881

USDJPY 148.25 LAST

iF BREAK OF 147.20-25 HOLDS THEBN RESISTANCE TARGET IS 149.37… SEE IF 138 CAN BECOME SUPPORT

[GVI Forex 2]

Big upside beat in US NFP, lower jobless rate , higher earnings = hot report

[SF Monedge]

Neural conditions in GbpUsd are decidedly weighted toward the sell side right now.   If the pair is trying to find value higher than current market I think it should run into a bit of trouble.  3250 is a bit of a price magnet.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street has weathered an edgy start to the final quarter reasonably well this week, with the September employment report now an obvious final hurdle on Friday and firmer oil prices an irritant even as a three-day U.S. ports strike ends.

As has been the case for weeks, markets are trying to find the balance between signs of persistent growth but at a pace soft enough to sustain disinflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cut hopes.

Morning Bid: Jobs and oil dominate as ports strike ends

[GVI Forex 2]

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[GVI Forex 2]

As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook, how markets end the week will be more important than how it starts out.

The same goes for today once the dust settles on the US jobs report reaction, the question is how aggressive do traders want to position into the weekend given the risk of an Israeli reprisal vs. Iran.

As for NFP, as I noted, even a small deviation from the 149K consensus (e,g, 120K or 160K) can have an outsized knee jerk reaction.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE OFF THE LOW

If you are looking for the flow behind the GBPUSD bounce, look at EURGBP (lower).

Given the sharp move down yesterday, see below for retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator as potential resistance levels. In any case, 1.32 is pivotal (5-% at 1.3198) on the upside. Otherwise, roll the dice, NFP is up next..

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – Waiting for NFP

Bounce from 141.64 performing technically, testing the next key level at 147,20 (yesterday’s high 146.25).

On the downside, the former high around 146.50 now becomes pivotal post-NFP although only back below 145 would shift the focus back on the downside.

Re NFP, in this environment, even a small deciation from the consensus can have an oiutsized eddect.

Note, when trading USDJOY, allow for small moves through key levels, such as the one described. Same occurred on the break of 141.79.

[SF Monedge]

It is normal to assess why markets were the way they were after the close of any given day.  Today in the US session things began with a nervous tone due to the elements noted below by other GVI members.

In relation to the US Dollar one might consider that prior sessions were significantly one dimensional and  singularly directional.  That is often followed by markets going sideways or somewhat sideways in the sessions that follow and that was the case with UsdJpy.  Sterling was a little different, which makes sense considering the one dimensional selling of late.

There is significant data tomorrow  in the US session.

[Author]

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