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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD break of 1.0950 looks like a typical stop hunt but downside at risk as long as it trades below 1.0970/80

Otherwise, to repeat, 1.0950 is clearly pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

3rd time a charm. stops run at 1.0950… see if break holds.. in any case it is the clear bias setting level

[GVI Forex 2]

Commodity currencies under pressure but no signs of risk off in stocks

EURUSD again in sniffing distance of 1.0950, see if 3rd try weakens the level.

US news is focused on the approaching monster hurricane.

[michael Calif]

re-post:    per Law of Time there is a tradeable Low in EURUSD and a tradeable High in SP 500 both beginning today    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall St stocks roared back on Tuesday just as China doubts re-emerge – but a scattergun week now has investors navigating the impact from a potentially devastating hurricane in Florida and a recoiling oil price in the face of Middle East tensions.

Adding to this heavy and sometimes conflicting newsflow, the U.S. Justice Department late Tuesday said it may ask a judge to force Alphabet’s (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Google to divest parts of its business, such as its Chrome browser and Android operating system – claiming they sustain an illegal monopoly in online search.

Morning Bid: Braced for Milton as oil recoils, China retreats

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Monthly

For a third day in a row EURUSD are doing – nothing.

So to find a reason for it, one has to turn to the Big time frames.

Pivotal is at 1.09500 : If above – Bullish , if below Bearish – simple as that

Supports : 1.09500 , 1.08600 & 1.07250

Resistances : 1.11450 , 1.12150 & 1.13000

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Correlation?

In the absence of fresh economic news, markets are like steering a boat without a rudder.

This leads to looking for correlations to steer the boat. In this regard, early USD strength seemed to correlate with weaker stocks, which have since recovered and the USD has backed off its day highs.

Note, correlations work until they stop working so keep an eye on Stocks to see if the pattern continues (or not).

As for U5500, trading with a bid (while above 5700) but consolidating unless 5758-73 are taken out.
‘

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted by JP:

EURO 1.0955 = Sup
the Qtn is . will it hold

and the A is __

JP, the answer to your question depends on whether there are stops below 1.0950. Right now there is a double bottom, suggesting someone defending this level but the more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes unless of course if it holds rock solid.

As I noted, test may have to wait until US CPI but in any case, a 50 pip range is too tight to last for long.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Key levels cited

As noted yesterday, key levels are at 147.20-149.37 and tests of both side at 147.34-140.12) have paused within this band.

Pivotal level is clearly 148, which will dictate the next directional move.

For those still looking at this as a retracement, here are the FIBO levels for 161.93-139.58

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – POWER OF 50

Turing on my screen what popped out was EURUSD making another run at 1.0950 (1.0951 double bottom).

The significance is not only the psychological 1.0950 level but the 1.0949 key chart support just below it.

Lending potential support could be caution at some stage ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI report although the focus will soon shift to next week, ECB meeting, where a 25 bps rate cut is widely expected.

On the other side, there is the ongoing Middle East situation with traders waiting for the other shoe to drop (Israel reprisal against Iran).

In any case, our view that EURUSD will stay defensive as long as it trades below 1.10 has so far worked out. a firm break of 1.0949 would put 1.0881 on the radar as next key support.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDNZD DAILY CHART – RBNZ FALLOUT

It is the reaction to news that matters played out overnight with the NZDUSD falling sharply (down about 1%) after the RBNZ, as generally expected, cut rates by 50bps

AUDNZD reaction (up) would need to establish above 1.1056 to expose the Major level at 1.1151.

Otherwise, range is to 1.0980-00,

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0955 = Sup
the Qtn is . will it hold

and the A is __

[SF Monedge]

JP – at 10:18 pm

If I may.  There are times there is too much caffeine in the tea.  I am waiting for the glowing jobs report to have another almost 1 million job loss revision they tried to bury under the rug.

If Powell is smart is will continue to play their game in order to survive.

My approach of late is to choose the most sensitive currencies to purchase which would benefit from sudden shock.

Because these people in charge are not in charge.  If you think so you are smoking Payote.

[Mtl JP]

earlier today bostic
–

– Says Fed Aiming to Balance Risks to Both Inflation, Jobs
– Eyes Hurricane Fallout as Economic Risks Remain Balanced
– U.S. labor market is ‘slowing, but not slow,’
– Economy Is Close To Fed’s Targets And ‘Moving Closer’; Inflation Rate Is Still ‘Quite A Ways’ Above 2%

and something about wanting a pony too

[GVI Forex 2]

Anyone trader knows that trading is tough but I hope this makes it easier.

It’s free. No hidden charges or additional registration. Simply hit submit and you will get access to the video link.’

[Belgrade Bobby]

Brent Crude Oil

Oil Prices Fall as Israel’s Response to Iran’s Attack Fails to Materialize and China Declines to Add Further Stimulus

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday for the first time in six sessions as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct.1 missile attack and China avoids new stimulus measures to revive a flagging economy.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for November delivery was last seen down US$1.40 to US$75.74 per barrel, while December Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down US$1.43 to US$79.50.

Oil gained 13% in the five sessions after Iran’s attack as traders worried Israel response would hit at Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7-million barrels per day of exports. Fears abound also that a wider war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf is on the horizon and could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However the risk premium may be fading given the delay in Israel’s response.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – BACK ABOVE 20k

NAS100 back above 20K but any high other than a new record high will be a disappointment.

It feels like markets in general are waiting for Israel’s reprisal to get the focus away from geopolitical risks.

Stocks, meanwhile , are trading with a bid ahead of earnings in the hope that current lofty valuations can be justified.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – Range or retracement?

As I have been pointing out it has been glaring that GOLD has not gotten a safe haven bid despite geopolitical tensions and risks.

As also pointed out, if you t=assume a 2600-2700 range then 2650 wills et the tone, below it increasses the risk of a retracement.

Now we see id 2600 holds. If not, then support is at 1545-85.

[SF Monedge]

Being active in the Asian session is a constant for me since being on the West Coast of the US provides good time zone benefits.  The prior Asian session was initially inspiring, with China announcing less restriction and more stimulus as well as efforts which, one might argue, would create a surge in retail trading and investment that sticks.

I got what I wanted.  But the verbiage lacked detail and so the aggressive 11% gain in mainland China stocks fizzled rapidly to under 6%.  Still good but quite a reflection.

There is something called “predictive volatility” as noted by London regulators which basically states volatility across markets is here to stay when considering such factors as the speed of information output and the chaos present across continents.

But then you have continuing elements such as Kiersten Todt, a rightfully highly renowned cyber-security executive pointing out a dramatic increase in communication infrastructure hack efforts against every western nation by the People’s Republic of China at a sovereign scale.  In past decades this would be an act of war.

What a lot of people would like to see is for China to concretely open domestic market participation, because if and when it does the surge of retail money in China would be historic, which would also serve to slow the impact on price activity from high impact data due to the increased volume present across markets.

Theoretically.

[SF Monedge]

Long UsdJpy is looking increasingly prudent intraday headed into session end.

[Author]

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