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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – WHEN IN UNCHARTERED TARRITORY

When in unchartered (record high) territory, big figures, such as 5800 increase in importance in the absence of any meaningful resistance.

The pause below 5800 suggets this is the level that would need to be taken out to accelerate the upside further.

On the downside, only a break of 5733 would suggest the high is in for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 2600 GOLDS THE LINE

A sI have been noting, 2600 was a key level that needed to hold to maintain my call for a 2600-2700 range.

Now, 2624 needs to become support to shift the risk to 2650-55/

On the upside, 2650-55 would need to be renewed to put the record high back on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

SSm as I noted, Hurricane Helene likely distorted the claims number.

In fact, most data will be distorted pre-FOMC in Nov due to Hurricane Milton as well.

[SF Monedge]

August Jobless Claims came in at the worst since August 2023.  Considering the administration and their agencies hid almost a million unreported job losses in the not too distant past, I wonder what those numbers really are.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks dip met with buying…

Re EURUSD focus looking ahead to next week’s ECB meeting.

Will stay defensive as long as sub-1.0950

[SF Monedge]

Ok DX sold into the European fix so the probabilities are that is done now.

[SF Monedge]

Although Euro is getting hit with stocks I don’t prefer the long side of USD against certain pairs today such as CHF due to the brewing risk related to the Iran situation.  Better off staying on the sell side of Euro.  A sudden high impact event, which is only a matter of time now, could cause extreme safe haven flows.

[SF Monedge]

After some delay Yen futures are beginning to see more weight on the sell side with the others such as Euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – POST DATA CANDLE

Post-US data candle 1.3015-1.3088, low would need to be taken out to expose key 1.30 support

Upside limited unless it gets back above 1.3050-65.

[SF Monedge]

Put to call ratios are decidedly down in stocks, as are advancing vs declining shares, as is the +/- volume.  At the moment.  Euro futures are still right in the middle of those algorithm parameters I mentioned below.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks opening lower…

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks opening lower…

[SF Monedge]

I’ve seen a lot of algorithms banks/fund managers use, have used, or would consider using.  At the moment on a session to session basis values across currencies are right in the middle of what would be considered extensions of buy or sell pressure.  That is regardless of if the % gain or loss is showing +/- on the pairs in relation to its star point for the week/day that begins with the Asian session.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up.. especially in long end… see if there is a correlation… EURUSDD remain below 1.0950 after earlier brief blip above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up.. disciple in long end… see if there is a correlation

[GVI Forex 2]

Watching the reaction in US bonds to the data (it is the reaction that matters)…. 2 year 3.97$ -4.7bps, 10 year 4.063%, -.0.2 bps… USD (slipping) seems to be correlating with 2 year (for now)

My focus is in EURUSD 1.0950 as the overall sentiment indicator… last at1.0943

How is this for a data reaction… see 5 minute chart (candle: 1.0907-1.0955)

[GVI Forex 2]

Maybe it was the news algos trading off keywords but nice gift in USD dip on reaction to jump in claims. I noted they would likely be distorted.

[GVI Forex 2]

CPI beats on upside

Weekly jobless claims much higher but likely impacted by weather event

[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims… see our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With U.S. stocks at new records and devastating Hurricane Milton now weakening as it passes over Florida, the shifting U.S. interest rate horizon is back in focus with September’s key inflation update due on Thursday.

Despite the stormy weather and Middle East anxiety, U.S. economic soundings remain robust and Federal Reserve easing expectations continue to be dialled back – sending the dollar to near two month highs in the process.

Morning Bid: New stock records as storm passes and CPI due

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