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[SF Monedge]

Jay – agree to an extent on the forwards.  Its been working for me for a long time though.  CTA I knew was almost perfect with Euro using them for years.  You just have to do it right.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 102.65
–
puppy looks like it is consolidating. ie try to recover its witts about self

FED 25pt next cut approx 80% priced-in

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, the farther out contract reflect the forward USD rates, which are determined by interest rate differentials. It has nothing to do with sentiment.

[SF Monedge]

Of the forward rates I observe, UsdJpy has the strongest conviction, which is toward the sell side.  The others are mainly stronger in the further out contracts and weaker in the nearby’s indicating a bit of a mix early in the session.  Bear in mind it quite often takes some time for this element to work its way through markets, but that is the condition and it changes daily.

[SF Monedge]

Noting a disconnect between S&P and Dow internals at the open with S/P sell side activity present and not as much in Dow.  Euro correlates more strongly with Dow than S&P.  I had an arrogant genius try to convince me years ago that only S&P was the only thing that mattered other than bonds.  Arrogance and ignorance are not a good mix.

[SF Monedge]

Aud is on the back foot a bit pre-US open as are a few others in terms of flows but not necessarily strength of conviction, but that is the condition for the moment in my view.  Am interested to see what the report from Canada is at the start of the next hour with relation to business outlook survey.  Canada has been doing a fairly good job if I am not missing something.

[GVI Forex 2]

US PPIU is also due i=at 12:30 GMT

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CGART – Waiting for the jobs report

8 green candles in a row…

New high 1.3779…

Needs to hold the 1.3738 breakout level to keep the focus on 1.38 and aboicve…

Below 1.3691 would be needed for an outside day

Roll the dice as CDA jovs report is up next

[GVI Forex 2]

From the Reuter Morning Bid report

But the picture encouraged doubts about whether the Fed will cut again in November, with some Fed officials clearly wavering.

The relatively hawkish Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic told the Wall Street Journal he was considering a pause until the data fog lifted a bit. “Maybe we should take a pause in November. I’m definitely open to that.”

While other Fed officials indicated further easing was still in store, futures remain only just over 80% priced for another quarter point rate cut on November 7.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – DEFENSE AHEAD OF THER WEEKEND?

AS NOTED, 2600 was a key level that needed to hold to maintain a 2600-2700 range.

AS ALSO NOTED, 2624 needs to become support to shift the risk to 2650-55.

On the upside, 2650-55 would need to be renewed to put the record high back on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Even though futures pricing had already turned queasy before the sticky September inflation report on Thursday, the prospect of the Federal Reserve skipping another interest rate cut next month has now become part of the mix.

An aggravating miss on U.S. consumer price readings for last month, which saw the annual core inflation rate unexpectedly tick higher to 3.3%, was partly offset by a jump in weekly jobless claims amid distortions from recent strikes and storms.

Morning Bid: Fed ‘skip’ enters fray as big banks report

[GVI Forex 2]

US futures modestly lower as traders await earnings season and Chinese MOF update

[GVI Forex 2]

US futures modestly lower as traders await earnings season and Chinese MOF update

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART: 1.09-1.10

The bounce from 1.0900 suggests the wide range is 1.09-1.10 with the risk down unless the top end is taken out, stronger if 1.0950 becomes resistance.

For intra-day, 1.0950 remains the pivotal level with 1.0955 (yesterday’s post data high) key day resistance

Otherwise, it is hard to see big bets ahead of the weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

Monday is a government and bank holiday in the US but exchanges are open.

[GVI Forex 2]

Monday is a government and bank holiday in the US but exchanges are open.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Friday’s session brought a cautious mood to the markets, ahead of a smattering of data and an uncomfortable weekend.

China’s finance minister has called a fiscal policy briefing for Saturday against a backdrop of high expectations and jittery trade. Investors and, as of Thursday, Swedish furniture shop IKEA want fiscal stimulus to reinvigorate the economy.

Morning Bid: Markets turn cautious before uncertain weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

Those who have followed me know how I feel about treating trading as a business and not a casino. If you treat it like a casino you will wind up like most of those who visit Las Vegas. If you treat it like a business then you have a chance to be successful.

Trading Tip: Treat Your Trading as a Business: Keep a Ledger.

[GVI Forex 2]

At first glance forex broker client sentiment reports showing net client positions seem like a useful tool.

However, when you dig deeper it raises the question whether the data should be taken at face value.

Are Forex Broker Client Position Reports Useful or Not?

1. 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – Watch 60K

With the rally attempt fizzling, focus shift back to the downside where the daily trendline is the last hope for the bulls to keep hopes alive.

To keep it simple, 60K+ needs to be renewed to ease the rissk to the downside.

[Author]

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