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[michael Calif]

re-post:     Time Vibration is Short BTC futures til late December     :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

After further review I would pay attention to your oil contracts this week.  It would be a responsible thing to do.

[michael Calif]

re-post:   Law of Time remains Long USD futures til appx Nov. 27     :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

1.0800 is one of those key options levels that may try to be defended. If so, it looks defense started around 1.0810.

On the other side, 1.08 and below are at risk as long as it trades below 1.0835.

[Mtl JP]

Have no fear Kristalina , BIG central bankers are here:

Big central banks are firmly in rate-cut mode
Thu, October 17, 2024

By Naomi Rovnick and Alun John
LONDON (Reuters) – Seven of the 10 big developed-market central banks tracked by Reuters have now started easing policy, with expectations of how quickly each will move swinging back and forth as policymakers stress data dependency.

Here’s where major rate-setters stand and what traders expect next.

As Jay s been postulating, relative interest rates are an important engine of volatility in the FX market.

[Mtl JP]

… “but said much could still be done to boost growth, reduce debt and build a more resilient economy.” …
sooo … hahaha what are “THEY” waiting for ?
—
IMF chief expects lukewarm growth in medium term, urges reforms
New forecasts by the International Monetary Fund point to a difficult future for the global economy marked by lackluster medium-term growth, escalating trade…

By Andrea Shalal, Oct 17, 2024

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New forecasts by the International Monetary Fund point to a difficult future for the global economy marked by lackluster medium-term growth, escalating trade tensions and high levels of debt, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday.

…’ “Our forecasts point to an unforgiving combination of low growth and high debt – a difficult future,” Georgieva’…

[Mtl JP]

Eye on YELLEN
–
making a fool of herself again:
US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen is currently warning that former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will exacerbate inflation.

but donald is only a pretender to and not yet in the presidency.
does janet know something that the betting markets don’t ??

[GVI Forex 2]

EURO remains the weak link in the dollar chain.

As I have bee posting, below 1.0881 (and now 1.0850) exposes 1.08 and a 1.0777 target.

EUR is also weak on its crosses, EURGBP last at .8326.

I read an article recently that a bank said EUR may be used as a favored funding currency rather than JPY or CHF.

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuter poll on next week’ BoC meeting

19 out of 29 economists polled are calling for a 50bps rate cut

[GVI Forex 2]

Here are your pivotal levels

eurusd 1.0850

usdjpy 150

gbpusd 1.30

usdcad 1.3750 and 1.3800

[GVI Forex 2]

All US data beats… USD higher… yields higher

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

After ECB decision

Supports : 1.29750 , 1.28650 & 1.27400

Resistances : 1.30300 , 1.30850 & 1.31750

If it closes tonight above 1.30500 we’ll be seeing a turn to the Upper side.

For continuation of the downtrend – needs to close below 1.29750

[GVI Forex 2]

ECB cuts 25bps as expected…no surprise in statement

EURUSD bounce held around the 200 day mva

Next UP: US retail sales, weekly jobless claims, ECB press conference, Philly Fed

Claims impacted by the hurricane

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Tests downside

What a difference a day makes. At this time yesterday EURGBP was bid following tame UK CPI and now it is offered ahead of the ECB.

So while EURUSD has bounced a tocch from 1.0850, GBPUSD is up more off its low.

Key supports .8325-18-00

.8350 can be used as a EUR indicator.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Open

Sentiment holds an upward bias ahead of US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and the ECB

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses trade mostly firmer but to varying degrees, with tech sentiment briefly lifted after strong TSMC results; US futures also gain.

The dollar is flat, AUD benefits from the stronger-than-expected jobs data, whilst the Loonie underperforms.

Bonds are on the backfoot and awaiting today’s key risk events which include US Retail Sales and the ECB Policy Announcement.

Crude oil is choppy and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, XAU is modestly firmer whilst base metals are mostly lower.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

3rd time tested 2685 was broken as logic prevailed.

XAUUSD last at 2687.50 (new record high)

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Tech-heavy stock markets are set to breathe a sigh of relief on Thursday as the world’s largest chipmaker beat the street and eased gnawing doubts about semiconductor demand worldwide and jitters about the wider artificial intelligence theme.

After a cloudy outlook from Europe’s ASML earlier this week sideswiped chip stocks everywhere, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing said on Thursday it expects sustained growth as it reported a forecast-beating 54% jump in profits and soaring demand for chips used in AI.

Morning Bid: TSMC steadies chip ship, ECB set to ease

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 2685 tested

2685 record high re-tested

Keeps its bid as long as it stays above 2658-66 but would need to take out 2685 in this latest run up to break fresh ground.

Typically, the more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes unless, of course if it runs into a wall (e.g. triple top) then market will pay notice.

So this is like a put up or shut up time for the bulls at 2685.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE ECB

As this chart shows, risk is for 1.0777 while below 1.0881. With that said, 1.0850 i clearly the focus ahead of what should be a 100% discounted ECB rate cut.

200 day mva 1.0873 (watch close vs it). 100 day is at 1.0936

As I noted yesterday

EURUSD IS CLOSING BELOW ITS 200 DAY MVA (1.0874).

If you are looking for a pivotal level, watch 1.0850 as below it would expose 1,0800 and a 1.0777 target.

Above 1.0850 range is to 1.0900.

[SF Monedge]

Basically I am counter punching data.  Does not work every time but hey making money lol.

[Author]

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