Contact us

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

Nothing goes up forever but XAUUSD is trying to do so.

If I had to pick a possible pause area, I would say 2750 or if not then 2800.

On the downside, expect support on dips while above 2700.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART -Day without news

RANGE SO FAR 1.0846 -1.08715

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Trend down

While 1.0850 sets the intra-day tone, any move to the upside that fails to break 1.09 should be treated as a retracement.

On the other side, as we noted, 1.08 is one of those options strike levels that would likely be defended (low was 1.0811)

Levels to watch: 1.0873 (yellow line – 200 day mva) and 1.0881 breakdown level..

[SF Monedge]

War affects currency flows.

As reported in Reuters today, 2 classified US intelligence reports were leaked detailing Israel’s plans with Iran.  The day after Biden said he knew of Israel’s plans and saw room for ceasefire.

A little bird had me feeling there would be a leak last night through the New York Times, the democrat party’s propaganda source.  Which is exactly what happened.

The goal of the Biden administration and democrats is to foul up Israel’s plans and maybe get lucky right before the US presidential election by being able to claim they stopped Israel.

From protecting itself.

Dear Jewish people.  There is not one democrat who is your friend.

This is going to put heavy weight on into any gallant thoughts over a risk on environment next week.  Therefore it will really take something to convince me and a lot of others that DX gets heavy buy flows that would sustain yet.

The US is not supporting a key, long time ally, over hopes of political gain while being an embarrassment.

[GVI Forex 2]

The upcoming week has a light economic calendar, especially from the US in a forex market that seems to need news to create volatility. Arguing for consolidation, at least to start the week, is a light economic calendar and that there are no key USD buy stops unless last week’s highs are taken out.

Let’s look at daily charts to see the broader picture.

Weekly FX Chart Outlook – October 21-25 (plus XAUUSD)

https://global-test.financialmarkets.media/weekly-fx-chart-outlook-october-21-25/

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off Monday is Germany’s producer price index which is estimated to fall 0.25 percent month over month, after rising 0.2 percent in August.

Wednesday will have Canada’s monetary policy report and US existing home sales data release.

Bank of Canada is expected to cut its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent. This follows a 25-basis point cut to 4.25 percent last month. US existing home sales are expected to rise at a 3.9 million annual rate in October after falling 2.5 percent to 3.860 million units in September. Also in US reports Wednesday, the release of the Beige Book covering the period between late August and mid-October will show the impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, reports out of Atlanta, Richmond, and St. Louis. This could well pull the overall tone of the report down, and coming on the heels of a lackluster assessment of conditions in the prior Beige Book, it could cause some handwringing about the US economy.

In Thursday’s reports, South Korean GDP is expected to rise 2.1 percent year over year, and the PMI composite flash for the UK is expected to expand in both composite, manufacturing, and services in its flash release.

Econoday

[michael Calif]

TIME SHIFT:    time vibrations nearby futures now Short USD, Long Euro; sooner than expected.    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

Just WHERE is yellen ?
worried about Howard Lutnick and trumps potential tariffs
–
BRICS to discuss new global financial system – Reuters
At next week’s BRICS summit Moscow plans to unveil new payments platform for international trade without need for dollar.

Putin says BRICS, not the West, will drive global economic …
(Reuters) The BRICS group will generate most of the global economic growth in the coming years thanks to its size and relatively fast growth compared …

At BRICS summit, Russia to push to end dollar dominance
(Reuters) Russia is seeking to convince BRICS countries to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western …

Russia calls on BRICS partners to create alternative to IMF
(Reuters) Oct 10, 2024 — Russia, which chairs the BRICS group this year, has called on its partners to create an alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC WEEKLY CHART

CRYPTOS ARE THE ONLY INSTRUMENT THAT TRADES 24/7, 7DAYS A WEEK.

Weekly chart shows the obstacles ahead of the record 73780 high, starting with 70000.

To keep a bid on dips 66500 needs to hold.

[Mtl JP]

some week-end comical relief ?
–
Mortgage rates jump, slamming homebuyers despite Fed’s outsize interest rate cuts

UK headhunter ‘scams Wall Streeters with fictional jobs, fake IDs’ to get private info: report
New York Post 10/19/24

probably depends of your sence for comedy

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: 21st-25th October Highlights include PBoC LPR, BoC, EZ & UK PMI

[SF Monedge]

Patience count with currencies.  This is just a counter strike.  You should consider long USD.  The bigger picture is what counts.

[GVI Forex 2]

It is worth revisiting this article

If I told you that there was a large order in the market to buy EUR and sell GBP would you be looking to sell EURUSD and buy GBPUSD, do the opposite or step aside as the order gets executed?

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday market

Stocks up
Gold another record
Dollar down but let’s call it consolidation

[GVI Forex 2]

Look at GBPJPY… as well as EURGBP

Like being a forex detective identifying flows driving the market

[SF Monedge]

With respect to Yen, as all other currencies, it is important to watch the crosses.  It is quite a roadmap.  Watching the crosses tells you where the flows are going.

[GVI Forex 2]

And now the saga continues

EURGBP firms… .8313 => .8326

GBPUSD slips… 1.3065 => 1.3044

EURUSD back up to 1.0860 after dip did not reach 1.0850

Hint: When 2 currencies move in opposite directions it is a clue there is a real money flow in a cross.

[SF Monedge]

Should see the lower figure in Sterling soon.

[GVI Forex 2]

So let’s summarize the price action… I know this is just one flow but has impacted both spot pairs

EURGBP extended its bounce from .8295 to .8323

EURUSD firmed and GBPUSD followed with a lag

EURGBP stalled below .8325 (thanks to The Amazing Trader for that level) and then slipped back

GBPUSD firmed as the cross slipped

EURUSD barely moved

EURGBP did not go far on the downside, GBPUSD lost its cross bid, EURUSD slipped back with a lag

Sounds like a puzzle… this is using crosses to trade Spot101

Contact me jay@localhost if you want a further explanation

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday book squaring

EURUSD bounce would need to recover 1.0873+ or focus stays on 1,0850

Note EURGBP bounce stalled below .8325 (last .8313)

[GVI Forex 2]

This is a popular article that is worth revisiting

I first heard the term “feels bid in an offered market” on the Global-View.com Forex Forum many years ago. It was posted by one of our professional trader members, LA Mel, who used the term mainly for the EURUSD. However, it soon became apparent that it could be applied to all currencies and on both sides of the market (e.g. feels offered in a bid market and vice versa). I soon added to my trader toolbox and still use it today

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[Author]

Posts