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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY testing 150.75 = 50% (scroll below for the update)/// chartwise there is a void until 155.20 so use FIBOS and key MVAs

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – PAUSE?

As noted, 2750 was a potential pause level and high was 2740.

To suggest more thank a pause (i.e. retracement), the trendline and 2700 would need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

I wish USA Zeus (and old time GV member) was tuning in as he would be salivating at the EURUSD 1.0777 level.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.18%… around a 3 month high

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART- WATCH THE MVAS

Extending high above 150, CORRELATING WITH FIRMER us YIELDS… 150.75 = 50% (SEE BELOW)

Game changer area is the 100 (blue) and 299 (yellow) mvas (150.80-141.309)

Needs to hold 150.30 to keep the focus pointed higher and away from 150

[GVI Forex 2]

10 YEAR LAST AT 4.17%… NOte JPY sensitivity to higher US yields, USDJOY at 150.40

[Mtl JP]

higher yield
makes a ccy more attractive
in general

if things go fantastically, us 10-yr s heading to 5% yield
finally! and glory to Bill G)

[GVI Forex 2]

One of my favorite trading tips is that complacency can be a trader’s worst enemy.

Today is a good example of a market that felt like it was going nowhere earlier but has seen some decent )one way) intra-day moves.

[michael Calif]

re-post:    TIME SHIFT:  time vibrations nearbby futures now Short USD, Long Euro, sooner than expected    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Now we are seeing some risk off….

[Mtl JP]

[GVI Forex 2]

It feel like a slow drip higher for the US

Some key or pivotal level

USDCAD 1.3838-60

GBPUSD 1.30

USDJPY 150.32

EURUSD is back below 1.0850

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR TREASURY DAILY CHART (CFD)

Trading to lows (higher yield) not seen in over 2-1/2 month… one last low seen about 2 weeks agoi left on thsi chart

In the absence of news today higher yields are giving the USD some support.

[GVI Forex 2]

I have been searching for reasons why GOLD has been rising to record levels so I can get a clue how to react to any news. Here are the most commonly cited reasons

Economic uncertainty (not reflected in US stocks but China struggles)

Geopolitical (Ongoing Middle East tensions and waiting for Israel to retaliate v. Iran)

Central bank demand (this may be the strongest factor?)

No mention of upcoming US election but could be a contributing factor.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHartT

From Our Weekly FX Chart Outlook’

Short-Term Trend up but…

Market got its taste of the long forgotten 150+ level but failed to maintain it.

To put 150+ in the rear-view mirror, back below 148.82 would need to be broken.

To suggest this is more than a retracement of the broader 161.93-139.58, moves above the 100 and 200 daily mvas (blue and yellow lines) are needed.

[GVI Forex 2]

What is a yield curve? Note, the US yield curve iu
s positive.

Key Takeaways

Yield curves plot the interest rates of bonds of equal credit and different maturities.

Normal curves point to economic expansion.

Downward-sloping curves point to economic recession.

Yield curve rates are published on the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s website each trading day.

(Investopedia)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

US futures mixed ahead of Fed speakers; dollar firmer and bonds pressured

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

(Click below to read the full report and listen to the guys doing the podcast)

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are generally trading in negative territory, but the FTSE 100 remains afloat owning to gains in Energy/Mining names; US futures are mixed.

Dollar is firmer, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY attempting to test 150 to the upside.

Bonds are entirely in the red, Bunds were initially lifted by soft German producer prices, but ultimately succumbed to selling pressure.

Crude climbs higher attempting to recoup some of the prior week’s losses, XAU & base metals continue to advance.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A relatively quiet start to the week for world markets leaves Wall Street pondering the sustainability of the recent record highs as corporate earnings updates pour in, the S&P500 index nears 6,000 and the election looms.

The peculiar sight of a risk-loving rally in U.S. equity markets and corporate high yield debt alongside new records for the traditional safe haven of gold may speak something of the hedged outlook, with geopolitical and electoral risks coloring the booming domestic economy.

Morning Bid: Holding stock records, with a golden hedge

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a mini debate whether markets (stocks, bonds, fx) reflect a market leaning towards Trump (and the Trump Trade) or reflects the outperformance of the US economy.

With polls showing a tossup and the composition of Congress a factor in getting anything meaningful passed, I would argue for the latter but what do I know? I must say this is a rare time predicting is beyond my pay grade.

A GV member has been asking me

I have been asking you if / when politics will be trading theme —- is it starting?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOC

IN a week with a light economic calendar, the BoC deciion will be a key focus.

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Trend: Up but below major level (1.3946)

The question for the CAD is how much an expected 50bps BoC rate cut on Wednesday is discounted.

Look for aa bid on dips ahead of the BoC where 1.38 will dictate the tone afterwards.

To expose the major 1.3946 level, 1.3838-50 would need to be firmly broken.

[Author]

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