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[SF Monedge]

I took a sell side position in Aussie 10/16 and am out here because I think we may see 6700 at some point next week.  Just a view.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP and I were chatting offline about our short EURUSD positions

It started out with an AT Directional Indicator pattern indicating up episode was likely over and risk was shifting to the downside.

I said with no stops above EURUSD 1.0838 (only sellers), it seemed to be a matter of patience before moving lower using the logic that

Trend is down
‘
Once positions are trimmed/adjusted ahead of the weekend Who is going to go long EURUSD ahead of the weekend?

Just so this is not taken a a post in hindsight, I posted yesterday and again earlier to treat a move up as a retracement unless 1.0838 is firmly taken out.

[Mtl JP]

It is 11:11 in NY

meaning London sharks’ book squaring, for most part, should be done for the day / week
there could be some residual laggards but as long as 1.0837 holds
odds r low

[SF Monedge]

One thing to keep an eye on today is Vix futures.  When it gets above 18.60 that is an early warning level and if it trades above 18.70 and holds that is likely when stocks begin to pull back and stick.  Side note, in my opinion Vix futures are not an optimal intraday tool in terms of timing but it can certainly be of high accuracy at times especially if other metrics concur.

[SF Monedge]

The best position of the day since the time horizon will run out on the buy side of everything versus Yen, Euro, Sterling, other would be the sell side of UsdChf.  Already short there and holding into the close.  Tremendous Geo risk at present.

I tend to have a smidge more insight in Geo  risk matters due to my background  than a lot of people but even simply being aware of what is crossing newswires you can see how dangerous the waters are at present.

[SF Monedge]

What is working for me since very early this morning pre-US stock open is the buy side of everything versus Yen.  I abandoned the EurUsd short from yesterday very early after weaving in and out of other pairs to make it whole but decided to not re-enter Euro.  I don’t expect the risk on attitude to stick as the session grows older.  There is immense Geo risk right now.

The euphoria is related to some earnings, Trump apparently body slamming Harris in financial sector/Executive/other polls and other conditions not economic related, because those numbers are not stable.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD is bid but 1.30 still tough

EURUSD 1,0838 repelled

U of M consumer sentiment (final reading)… inflation expectation are usually a focus.. Note U of M is released to subscribers a few minutes for the pubic sees it

[Mtl JP]

10:00am NYT
U. of Mich. Sent for Oct

expectation for 69.1 vs 68.9 last

[Mtl JP]

caution

US 10-YR 4.182% -0.02

[Mtl JP]

Euro 1.0823
Overnite degenerate traders bit into 1.0837 Res and … pulled away (hahaha and applause to the “artists”)

On the south side EUR 1.0800/10 should hold on the day

To regain new up-momentum puppy will need to go N of 1.0875
while ECB suits yak about “measured cuts”

[Mtl JP]

re “some data”
–
08:30 Durable Goods
10:00 U. of Mich. Sent
11:00 collins. in “Fireside Chat” (supposed to impart an atmosphere of “under control”)

[GVI Forex 2]

US durable goods orders up next… volatile data that often sees sharp revisions

See our Economic calendar

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.188% -0.014
LAST | 7:46:20 AM EDT

DLRx 103.85

Looks like puppy (and yield premiums) have cooled off some , maybe some data could give the dlr a lift but odds look meek

104 = Support
bellow 103.50

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Tesla’s 20%-plus stock surge whets investor appetites for next week’s earnings from most of the rest of the “Magnificent 7” of U.S. megacaps – with overseas markets keeping close tabs on weekend elections in Japan and next week’s UK budget.

A relatively quiet end to a busy week sees market attention drift to numerous big events coming down the pike, not least the U.S. election in 11 days time. But the related edginess in the Treasury market earlier this week seems to have settled for now and the White House race remains far too close to call.

Morning Bid: Megacap Earnings Loom, Japan Decides, Gilts Wobble

[Mtl JP]

Anyone else would get slapped with either suspension, career-ending imprisonment and / or $xxx,xxx + fine
–
(Reuters) -Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed recent exchange-rate moves, among other topics, in a bilateral meeting held on Thursday, a senior Japanese finance ministry official said.

“The two sides discussed exchange-rate moves, and confirmed the need for the United States and Japan to communicate closely,” Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.29550 , 1.29150 & 1.28650

Resistances : 1.29900 , 1.30200 & 1.30650

This “Support” line just below is Hypothetical – based on historical angles and behaviour – but can be the real one…

The Pattern suggests possible turn Up – at least Upticks.

Do not forget that on the Big picture, as long as above 1.25000 Cable is Bullish

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

US futures are bid & DXY is flat ahead of US data & Fed speak

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses hold a slight positive tilt after initially opening on a modestly weaker footing; US futures are entirely in the green.

Dollar is flat ahead of Durable Goods, JPY was fairly unreactive to mixed Tokyo CPI.

USTs are flat but directionally in-fitting with the pressure seen in Bunds, sparked by strong German Ifo metrics
.
Crude is very modestly firmer but ultimately within a contained range, XAU/base metals are pressured.

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating before the election

While attention has been on the US election, Japan goes to the polls this weekend.

This runs the risk of a gap opening to start next week and also the BoJ waiting in the wings to covertly intervene if needed.

Otherwise, 152 remains a pivotal level, 151.40 = 200 daily mva (paused above it).

Suggests a 51.50-152.50 as a possible consolidation range.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidation or Retracement?

‘
It has been hard to bet against the relentless rise in XAUUSD but chart shows potential for a top for now, a retracement or at least consolidation.

To suggest a retracement, 2700-08 would need to be firmly taken out.

Otherwise, just consolidation.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Resistance holding

As noted a couple of times yesterday, treat the move up as a retracement unless 1.0838 is firmly taken out.

High so far 1.08374… dead on at an Amazing Trader resistance line

Otherwise, EURUSD keeps a bid while above 1.08 but runs the risk of a magnetic pull towards it if 1.0838 is not firmly taken out.

Just in case resistance level 1.0873

[Author]

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