Contact us

[Mtl JP]

who, at least here on the g-v forum, does not like volatility ?

US interest rate options price in Republican sweep, jump in volatility

Reuters October 29, 20241:06 PM EDT

[SF Monedge]

It should not take a rockets scientist to see there is going to be growing risk off pressure headed into the US election from here.  On one side there is a known decades long Marxist.  On the other side there is apparently the second coming of Hitler according to the Marxist.

This condition is perhaps the most volatile US election scenario in its history.  Some are fighting for socialism and some are fighting for what they consider to be freedom.

This literally could end up in widespread violence across the country post-election regardless of the outcome.

So if you were a risk manager, would you be hedging right now?

[SF Monedge]

Not tomorrow, and allowing room for a bit more downside pressure, but we will see 22.50 VIX futures coming up in the not too distant future.  Currently 18.5.

[SF Monedge]

Expecting a primarily risk off environment from here until the US election.  Sell side of EurJpy looks very good at present at current levels to hold barring surprises.

[SF Monedge]

In the midst of ongoing analysis I have come to the conclusion that no matter who wins the US election US stocks will go up for an extended period.  The only difference will be if Harris is in office the % gain will be less than if Trump is in office.  Most of it is due to the release of uncertainty.  All the anti-tariff chatter is from people who don’t want a level playing field and/or ideologically out of touch with reality.

Either way stocks are almost certainly going up barring something dramatic.  I would also consider getting on the buy side of oil through options because the declines we have seen since August are intentional and politically driven and not an accurate reflection of fundamental dynamics.  Accounting for seasonal and other drag effects of course.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.24

so after all that has been said and done, less has been done than said

in other words,
104.50 is still the current Res and
104 is still the floor

more ying-yang languishing is likely for a while untill the bracket gets blow out either side

[Mtl JP]

SF … did you miss my 10:41 link to yellen’s prognostication on Reuters ?

[SF Monedge]

So the bottom line on this round of data is there are less and less job offerings but consumers are spending like it doesn’t exist.  I smell trouble.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – HIDDEN HAND?

Was there a hidden hand protecting the post-election 153.88 high> Guess who that might be?

Note the verbal intervention comments (but ignored)posted  here earlier.

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS misses on downside, Consumer Confidence misses on the upside

[GVI Forex 2]

Using Crosses to Trade SpotFX 101

Notice how GBPUSD lost some of it bid (and EURUSD came off its low) after EURGBP held a test of ,8300

EURGBP resistance .8318-10

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.43
Res 104.50
Sup 104 / 103.9x

meek start to the day with a light bent for DLR mini-mani moe

players likely keeping powder dry ahead of payrolls and us election

JOLTS and Oct Consumer Conf at 10am nyt

13:00 yellen peddles more paper
recent player mood was to demand better returns for holding her department’s debt paper

[SF Monedge]

Consumer Confidence should be great.  New York only lost 1% (180,000) of its population in 2023 for economic reasons compared to 244,000 in 2022.  That’s good right?

[SF Monedge]

Risk off to start.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP so far holding .8300… .8295 = 2024 low

EURUSD 1.0770 is remaining support (low just now 1.0769) blocking the 1.0761 low

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART –

Tight range this week… 1.3908  resistance, target remains 1.3946

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 30 MINUTE CHART – DRIVING EURUSD LOWER, SUPPORTING GBPUSD

Watch EURGBP supports

Supports: 8303. .8295 (key level – recent low)

[GVI Forex 2]

Note, one hour shorter time difference US vs UK and Europe as US does not move clocks back until this weekend.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP (cro) strength could be coming from higher yields

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR 4.302%… USDJPY higher… GBP seems to be getting the cross flows

[Author]

Posts