JP – forwards contracts have dark clouds all over the place. Options implied volatility shows stable movement for the current contract (not a directional metric just market participation climate). Sell side looks dominant internally into buy side volume. Buy side is dominant overall but the activity is showing a tussle approaching 0880.
Implied volatility in Yen is stale at present, it was rising a bit a week ago and a month ago, so the options market is of the belief we don’t see any dramatic price swings right now. That can change of course and the MOF/BOJ decision tonight has plenty of potential to alter that. Right now it is moving lock step with Black-Scholes application so the read is sturdy. The higher priced options are at 144.90 roughly.
Side note – my primary email was hacked again last night so you have to reach me by phone or through Jay until I get it resolved. The day I became a CTA years ago they have been after my email and bank accounts since lol.
Bobbie – For sure. Sterling is a good example of a textbook both ends stop run overnight and this morning. Purely 100% pre-set algorithms on the hunt for easy money by big money.
I already see quiet Call buying in Loonie futures ahead of the figure but can’t tell yet if it is portfolio adjustments or early positioning. I will know soon.
US 1yr and 2yr yields are up and the 10yr and 30yr are down, which is almost surely and effect of today’s Treasury buyback. Creates a bit of temporary scew in markets. So the general bias is down in the very near term for yields buy likely only for a window and could see 41.50 in the 10 eventually. Bigger picture remains US yield strength.
EURUSD 1.0828: similar AT resistance line comes in around 1.0830 (also the initial target from the bounce off the low), just nicked. Break would confirm the end of the down episode.
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