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[SF Monedge]

Sell side of EurJpy from 70/80 area is clean if you are not already in or have to wait.

[SF Monedge]

The selling in EurChf stuck and so the dominant bias is secured on the sell side, where it should be.  So just sell any pullups if not already in and get out of the OK Corral before the election results.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD DAILY CHART – BRACING FOR THE US ELECTION

BTCUSD may be setup to have the most volatility given Trump’s support of cryptos while Harris has not made it an issue.

So, let’s pick a range and ask whether 60K or 75K (7500 pips from the current price) are safe in any knee jerk reaction to the election result.

Going strictly by the charts, key resistance is the record 73840 high and support 65233 and 58893.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDMXN WEEKLY CHART – Holding its Breath

The Mexican Peso is seen as one of the currencies that could see a sharp reaction either way following the US election. The other, to a lesser extent is the CAD.

Why?

If trump gets elected with a Republican sweep, he could look alter USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada (free trade) Agreement that started in July 2020 in order to place tariffs on goods from both partner countries. Harris is seen as maintaining the status quo. Note USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) gthat exited from 1994-2020.

So you can see why technicals matter little until the dust settles on the US election result, especially the MXN. We will also see the extent to which a rik of a Trump presidency has been factored into weakness in each of these currencies.

 

[SF Monedge]

JP – or both.  I think that video really does sum it up lol.  That and when not trading my diet is that of an Olympic athlete, very clean and healthy.  When it is time to trade it is Cheetos and M&m’s and a chair strap!

[Mtl JP]

I have exactly the opposite view:

potential key to massive posi-pips is finding an existing imbalance

and the next trick is to discern when a momentum is picking up and jumping on (or helping) it

[SF Monedge]

JP – lol yup that would be fitting.  The key is finding balance in the labyrinth.  Side note I like the sell side of UsdCad around 10-20 pips from current market if not already in.

[Mtl JP]

SF sounds like you might be trading to

[Mtl JP]

EURDLR 1.0885

currently s/t priceline in the Support sand

[SF Monedge]

I post in flurries because I am all over the place in analysis.

I am largely dialed in on crosses today due to the schizophrenia present in the majors due to the looming election.  AudCad looks good from 9150 or so for the buy side.  If it trades below 9140 and you get closes under there, the dynamic will have almost surely changed to a dominant sell side.  This pair can be slow as molasses but the risk impact is reduced, which may be fitting in current conditions.

[SF Monedge]

A lot of chatter over Mexican Peso due to the matter of tariffs should Trump win.  The 4900 gap in Peso futures has not been remotely close to being filled and so there should be orders to get it there at some point.

Same with Sterling 2920.

[SF Monedge]

For clarification I mean the currencies themselves not the pairs.  So it would be the sell side of UsdChf and UsdCad.

[SF Monedge]

I mentioned Friday I like Franc and Loonie to hold and so far so good but expecting a little pull back any time now.  With the looming insane levels of volatility to come tomorrow you either had to catch the lows Thursday/Friday and sit or just play in and out because you don’t want to chase it heading into tomorrow night.

[SF Monedge]

EurChf could pull up from here.  The problem is it would run contrary to EurGbp selling fro 8420 as well as its correlation to stocks.  So perhaps a good hedge (buy one sell the other) and cut the loser when clear.

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD (WTI CFD) 1 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER MIND THE GAP

There are so many gaps today that I feel like going into a Gap store and buying some clothes.

Opening week gap to 69.71

Back below 70. 65 would put the gap in play, caps the downside while above it

Resistance at the 72.11 high, key levels at 72.50-85 lie above it.

Crude reacting to OPEC+ but pre-election poition adjustments likely a factor as well. .

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 1 HOUR –  ONE MORE UNFILLED GAP

Opening week gap to 1.3951

Back above 1.3927 would put the gap in play, caps the upside while below it

Support at 1.3890 tested, below it is 1.3875 and then a void.

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election

Anyone trading knows how hyper sensitive global markets are to news, whether it be economic, monetary policy related or geopolitical.

Being in sync with what markets are expecting and on alert for a surprise prepares a trader to assess a news reaction. This, in turn, allows a trader to be setup beforehand so he/she can take advantage of a news reaction rather than vice versa.

The question is then How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election?

 

[GVI Forex 2]

i remember the 2016 election where I believe the betting odds were 85/15 on Clinton beating Trump.

As polls came later election night it became clear that Trump was going to win.

This was not clear in 2016 due to mail in ballots and a race decided by a handful of vote in a few key states.

Now in 2024, watch the early results from Georgia (polls close at 7 PM and North Carolina at 7:30) but barring a surprise, the outcome will not be called on election night. I believe both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania don’t start counting mail in votes until the polls close so the earliest may be sometime on Wednesday.
‘
Whatever the outcome, markets will be extremely skittish and jumping around on any hint of a trend in the voting.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 152 acting like a magnet (last at 151.97)… low at 151.53 vs. key 151.44 cited earlier… SCROLL BELOW TO SEE EARLIER UPDATE

[GVI Forex 2]

10 YEAR BOND YIELD SNAPSHOTS

US yields are lower… may be contributing to a softer USD although main driver has been pre-election position adjustments so hard to suggest follow through.

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