If you are looking for an indicator of US election sentiment, keep an eye on USDMXN where a Trump win would be bad for the peso and a Harris victory would provide relief.
Similar to elsewhere, the opening week gap remains unfilled.
On the 12-month chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years to complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short-term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. In the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range after that resuming the original long-term bullish price correction.
USD is softer & USTs are flat on election day. Crude rises on geopols & constructive Chinese data
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know
European bourses are mixed and trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark; US futures are incrementally firmer/flat.
Dollar is slightly softer on US election day, Antipodeans benefit from constructive Chinese PMIs and Aussie was fairly unreactive to an unsurprising hold at the RBA.
USTs are essentially unchanged, Bunds are pressured alongside Gilts; the latter was weighed on by its 2034 auction.
Upward bias across industrials amid geopolitics and encouraging Chinese PMI data.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Even with the uncertainty of what most pollsters see as a dead heat in the White House race, world markets are in a upbeat mood as Americans cast their ballots on Tuesday and await the result.
One reason for the relative calm is that bookmaker odds on a Republican “clean sweep” of the presidency and both houses of Congress have lengthened compared with last week, with gridlock now the best guess whoever wins the Presidency.
EURUSD in a holding pattern awaiting the results of the US election.
If trading, stick to short-term charts and day trade as even if you call the election right, you could be caught out by an early vote headline.
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Current range is around 1.0870-1.0915, the bottom end is the top of the gap.
LONDON (Reuters) – Currency traders rushed to hedge against big overnight price movements that might ensue as the results of the 2024 U.S. election trickle out, pushing options volatility for the euro and Mexican peso to the highest since the 2016 vote.
LONDON (Reuters) – Currency traders rushed to hedge against big overnight price movements that might ensue as the results of the 2024 U.S. election trickle out, pushing options volatility for the euro and Mexican peso to the highest since the 2016 vote.
For traders, the focus will be on the Dollar, with a Trump win and a Republican sweep seen as the most bullish case for the Buck, with Commodity FX, the Yuan, and MXN amongst EMFX heavily weighed on. If Harris won, the Greenback is expected to be weaker, with commodity FX outperforming along with the EUR…
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NAS100 closing around the 20K level, which is the obvious bias setter once the dust settles on the US election. Expect alot of chop as election headlines come out until a clear winner emerges and the make up of Congress is known.
Looking at the chart, risk is tilted down but to suggest the top is in, the trendline would need to be taken out.
For trading in general, expect false starts on news headlines and as noted, how markets end the week will be more important that what goes on in between.
Once the dust settles, I would ask the question which is better for the stock market, Trump or Harris?
This is not as clear cut as it appears, as Trump comes with a risk/reward while Harris seems more of the status quo, assuming there is a divided Congress.
In US500, a firm break of 5700-5800 will dictate the eventual tone. Support in the 5600s, key resistance is at the record high.
Otherwise, hold on to your seat belts in a market where how it ends the week may be more important than what happens in between,