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[michael Calif]

is 106.25 the next step down for Euro; or 105.00 ?    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week ahead brings key economic data, highlighting inflation pressures and growth challenges. In Germany, October CPI is expected to rise 0.4% monthly and 2.0% annually, while the UK labor market may see unemployment edge up to 4.1%. US inflation remains a focus, with forecasts for October showing a 0.2% rise in headline CPI and 0.3% in core, pushing annual CPI up to 2.6%. Japan’s producer inflation may reach 3.0%, driven by energy costs amid geopolitical tensions.

Growth remains sluggish in Japan and the UK. Japan’s Q3 GDP is forecast to increase just 0.2%, a sharp slowdown due to weak consumer spending and business investment. The UK is also expected to post modest Q3 growth of 0.2%.

In the US, retail sales for October could see a boost from hurricane recovery and Amazon’s Prime Day event, with strong demand for vehicles and household goods. This week’s data will provide key insights into inflation trends, growth momentum, and consumer behavior across major economies.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

well so far players are rejecting jerome’s “work” to make money cheaper

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, If Powell’s Fed slows down cutting rates you might see a Trump backlash… maybe it is inevitable… if it happens bond vigilantes would come out of the bunkers

[GVI Forex 2]

KP. If Powell’s Fed slows gown cutting rates you might see a Trump backlash… maybe it is inevitable… if it happens bond vigilantes would come out of the bunkers

[Mtl JP]

JEROME POWELL’S TERSE SQUEALINGS

10-yr 4.308 last

after 50pt rate cut AND a 25bps followup rate cut trying to force-feed lower interest rate, players have sharply pushed up Treasury yields since the central bank cut rates in September. essentially telling powell F-U

Asked by a reporter whether he would resign if incoming President Donald Trump were to ask, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no. Powell added that Trump would not have the authority to demote him or any other governor. “Not permitted under the law,” Powell said.

cnbc
Elon Musk endorses plan to let presidents meddle with the Federal Reserve after Trump election win

Regardless of jerome’s emphatic insistence this dem’s and harris supporter’s days appear to be made unpleasant. I can see at least one way. If jerome has any sence he will POOF! before monday 20th “25

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights Nov 11-15

Newsquawk Highlights include US and China CPI, US Retail Sales, UK and Australian Jobs

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Good finish for the dollar but…

EURUSD found support again below 1.07, with a higher low

AUDUSD found support just below .6562 support (cited earlier)

EURGBP tested just below .8295, thus the GBPUSD lag

USDJPY did not join the buy USD party although it bounced from a 152.14 double bottom

US500 traded above 6000, watch the close vs. this pivotal target

‘

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0714 low is the remaining support ahead of the 1.0682 low.

Scroll down to see my earlier update…

To negate this retracement attempt and shift the focus back to the lows, 1.0746 would need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

Only major up vs the USD is the JPY, AUDJPY is the biggest loser

EURGBP sliding towards .8300, pressuring EURUSD

US500 edging closer to 6000

[GVI Forex 2]

AUUSD remains the underperformer, down over 1%

.6600 is pivotal with .8563 next support and .6617 resistance

[GVI Forex 2]

As I noted before the election, how markets end the week will be more significant than what come in between.

So far US stocks found a footing and currently bouncing back towards the highs, dollar up on the day, bond yields lower after dipping yesterday so 2 out of 3 for the Trump Ttade.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD held test of 1.0746 (low 1.0744-45).

[GVI Forex 2]

Price action in AUDUSD (down) suggests buying ahead of China stimulus and disappointment afterwards.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 15 MIN CHART – PAUSE ABOVE 152

Double bottom at 152.14

Needs to move above 152.45-50 to confirm the low is in for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

China-related assets slide as MOFCOM disappoints

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit after China’s NPC press conference disappointed markets; US futures remain flat.

DXY is slightly firmer, with the JPY strong whilst the Antipodeans lag given the lack of fresh stimulus measures from China.

Bonds are on a firmer footing, with modest outperformance in Gilts and as USTs await Fed speak from Bowman & Musalem.

Crude oil, XAU and base metals are all on the backfoot, following the underwhelming Chinese NPC press conference.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets often assume the worst and then take a breath to assess the situation. This appears to be the case with the Trump Trade, where bond yields have backed off, the dollar has given back some of its post-election gains and today stocks finally seem to be taking a breather.

I posted this last night for US500

Are stocks the outlier in the Trump Trade as they continue to rise while the other components retrace some of the post-election moves?

NOTE US GOVERNMENT OFFICES ARE CLOSED MONDAY FOR VETERANS DAY. BOND MARKETS AND BANKS ARE CLOSED BUT STOCK MARKETS ARE OPEN.  CANADA IS CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY AS WELL.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – KEEP IT SIMPLE

To keep it simple, 1.08 is the buy/sell; bias indicator that will dictate whether the retracement has legs or the downside stays at risk.

To negate this retracement attempt and shift the focus back to the lows, 1.0746 would need to be broken.

On the upside, a move above the 61,8% level (1.0840) would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.09

Note the 2 blue Amazing Trader lines drawn off 1.0824, which indicated a change in the directional risk (back to the downside) has so far paused above 1.0746.

Current intra-day range 1.0760-90, too tight to last.

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 DAILY CHART – PAUSE

I was asked to post on the DAX so taking a look at the chart there is a pause that would need to take out 19000 and then supports below it to suggest more scope on the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – 152 IS PIVOTAL

Key level is around 152, the remaining FIBO with JPY demand coming from softer bond yields and risk off (stocks lower today).

152 is the buy/sell bias level

Back above 152.95 would be needed to negate the current momentum

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