Contact us

[michael Calif]

Nov 14 repost:    Option Profile has confirmed that Longs now control Euro, Yen, and 10yr (lower yields) futures.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Monday starts off with Canadian housing starts, which are expected to rise to an annual rate of 240,000 in October after bouncing back to 224,000 in September from a recent low of 213,000 in August. Housing starts have been trending down, reflecting overall weakness in Canada despite relaxed financing conditions delivered by the Bank of Canada.

On Tuesday, Canada’s annual inflation reading is expected to correct higher to 1.9 percent in October from 1.6 percent in September and 2.0 percent in August. The September figure was the lowest since February 2021. On a monthly unadjusted basis, forecasters expect a 0.3 percent rebound after the 0.4 percent drop in September and 0.2 percent decline in August. Inflation readings like this are expected to keep rate cuts coming from the Bank of Canada.

US housing starts are estimated to be a little soft at a 1.3 million unit rate in October versus 1.4 million in September. Permits are expected flat at 1.4 million versus 1.4 million in September.

Wednesday, Japan’s merchandise trade is balance is expected to post a deficit of ¥132.2 billion for a fourth consecutive shortfall, after a revised ¥294.1 billion deficit in September and compared with a ¥702.86 billion deficit in October 2023 and a record shortfall of ¥3,506.43 billion (¥3.51 trillion) in January 2023. Japanese export values are forecast to show a rebound in October, up 3.0%, after falling 1.7% in September for their first year-on-year drop in 10 months. An increase in semiconductor-producing equipment appears to be partly offset by drops in automobiles, mineral fuels and iron/steel. Import values are expected to mark their first decline in seven months, down 1.8%, on crude oil, semiconductors and smartphones, following a 2.1% rise the previous month.

China’s monetary authorities cut the loan prime rate by 25 bp in last month’s fixing to boost the economy. Forecasters uniformly expect no change this month in 1-year or 5-year rates.

UK’s consumer price index is estimated to fall more than expected to a 1.7 percent rate in September from 2.2 percent in August. Forecasters expect the rate to rebound to 2.2 percent on year in October with a 0.5 percent jump on the month. A big rise in household energy bills is expected to push headline inflation higher in October. Core inflation is expected to be better behaved.

On Thursday, US jobless claims are expected to edge up to 219,000, closer to the four-week moving average at 227,250 after a lower than expected 217,000 in the prior week.

Friday, Japan’s consumer price index is expected to ease further to 2.2% in the core reading in October from 2.4% in September and 2.8% in August. The year-on-year increase in the total CPI is forecast at 2.3%, also down from 2.5% in September. By contrast, underlying inflation measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is seen at 2.3%, up from 2.1% the previous month, as this relatively younger series is unaffected by energy prices. The Bank of Japan, which expects inflation to be anchored around its 2% target by early 2026, is on course for at least three more 25 basis point rate hikes that would take the overnight interest rate target to 1% by late 2025 as part of its gradual normalization process after more than a decade of large-scale eas

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – DAY AFTER

Monday is like the day after an earthquake, meaning the day after the USDJPY meltdown.

Keep an eye on US stocks as Friday’ s plunge wa partly behind the hort JPY unwinding

4 HOUR CHART

:
Watch the trendline,

152.14 I the key support that needs to hold to keep the focus on 155.

Back above 155 would be needed to restore a bid bias.

Logic says there should be offers above the market by those caught long.

[Mtl JP]

NYT reports
—
“Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles”

President Biden for the first time authorized the use of a system known as ATACMS to help defend Ukraine’s forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

ATACMS is Lockheed Martin

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: 18th-22nd November 2024: Highlights include UK CPI & Retail Sales; RBA Minutes; Japanese CPI

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.05650 , 1.05950 & 1.06200

Supports : 1.05150 , 1.04950 & 1.04650

This is a Bearish Close / Open tonight, but do expect Upticks to at least 1.05650

[GVI Forex 2]

Our new and upgraded server is now online as we outgrew our old server due to our raopid growth.

Posts from Friday November 15 were not saved during the transition to a new server that you should find very reliable, smooth and fast loading.

[Mtl JP]

hear the bell toll janet yellen ?

“Top Economic Jobs Are Next Up in Trump’s Frenetic Transition Process”
President-elect meets with Scott Bessent, seen as a front-runner to lead the Treasury Department
By Andrew Restuccia, Vivian Salama, Brian Schwartz, Rebecca Ballhaus, Nov. 15, 2024 in WSJ

[Mtl JP]

cnbc’ jeff cox
–
“Markets are grappling with the effect of Trump’s win and how the Fed will react”

and how the FED will react ….. … … to Trump’s win ?
reading that headline I get the impression cox has a splinter in his donkey

[Belgrade Bobby]

Test

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed’s Powell says the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates

[michael Calif]

Option Profile has confirmed a tradeable Euro Low off the Sep 24 High    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

No surprise, 1.0550 exerting its magnetic pull after intra-day stops run earlier and then not following through.

[Mtl JP]

just for the fun of it
EURUSD: 105.50 AS I TYPE
10yr 4.406%

suggest: check your charts for sentiment and range signals
fwiw

[SF Monedge]

Having difficulty seeing UsdChf doing much after 9000 is seen.

[Mtl JP]

** GAP **
–
DLRx 106.67

on my chart (4hr for ex) … I am showing a GAP to 103.33-ish
trade profit opp looms
fwiw

[GVI Forex 2]

JP zero chance he resigns

[Mtl JP]

GVI Forex 11:33
–
odds may be very very low but they are not zero that
jerome , at end of his spiel this afternoon, as last sentence that he utters will be

I and my board, hereby resign.

and whispers … find yourself someone else to run the money printing business

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CGART – NEXT LEVEL TESTED AND HOLDING

 

Just so you know this level was posted well in advance early this morning

For day traders, it is a Power of 50 day with 1.0550 likely to set the tone.

Otherwise, a move above 1.0577 would be needed to slow the threat to key targets at 1.0500-15 and the major one at 1.0446.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD leading retracement… 1.0577 (tested), 1.0794 next levels… to suggest a bigger squeeze 1.06+ would need to trade… 1.0577 so far capping upside

I did give the clue about 1.05 defense

Addendum: Mixed FX… USDJPY off its highs but still bid, USDCAD bid above 1.40

[Author]

Posts