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[SF Monedge]

If EurChf can make it to around 9338 or so that could be a good spot for not only a sell side position but a timing mechanism for other pairs this morning.  Price behavior in Swiss futures shows a non-committal condition.  One might think Friday might present flows into Swiss and perhaps Yen on safe have precaution.  Couple of thougthts.

[Belgrade Bobby]

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – LOONIE STRIKES BACK

Remains soft after falling back below 1,40.

Supports 1.3925,1.3910.1,3842

Above 1.3950 slows the risk, above 1.3978 negates it

[GVI Forex 2]

Headline Alert

This just came out and stocks got hit, USDJPY fell sharply to test 154.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

Algos woke up… S&P +25… USDJPY back to 154.50

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 154.17

A word about correlations… they worki umtil they stop working

Double bottom at 154.08

[GVI Forex 2]

This is proving to be a timely article in our blog

How to Trade the Current EURUSD Trend

[GVI Forex 2]

Now we start from square one and shift the focus to some US data.

What also catches my eye is that commodity currencies are on the firm side so the risk argument may be more of an excuse for algos to trade.

[GVI Forex 2]

I presented the puzzle… gave an alert to firmer stocks… correlation… USDJPY last at 154.65… nuff said except 154.50 remains pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

NVDA -2% as revenue growth slows, havens lifted by tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

Equities generally modestly lower; NVDA -3% pre-market despite headline beats as Q4 guidance disappoints.

Ukraine’s airforce announced that Russia launched an ICBM, Ukrainian media specified it was a RS-26 missile; however, CNN reports that ICBM usage has not been confirmed.

Dollar is slightly firmer, JPY outperforms benefiting from the risk-aversion triggered by tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Bonds are benefiting from the geopolitical risk-premia into numerous central bank speakers.

Crude is firmer and resides just off session highs, gas outperforms & XAU bid whilst base metals are dented by the risk tone.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Mtl JP]

10:03 – “my puzzle in place to start the day”

THE puzzle …. is developing singular tactic gaming the market’s directional sentiment.

It can be boiled down to a simple equation
Market – 1 = your success (or failure)

basically, sniffing out a price point at which the market will take off in this or that direction and in what magnitude AND then jumping on OR fading it.
Successfully , naturally.

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks ticking higher… see whether JPY correlates… watch USDJPY 154.50

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Algo Snpshot – 30 miniutes

Click below for lsatest in all timke frasmes

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Algo Snapshot – 30 minutes

Click below to get access (all time frames)

[GVI Forex 2]

I also look at the economic calendar to see what data is coming out. I then have the pieces of my puzzle in place to start the day.

[GVI Forex 2]

And then I look at a EURUSD chart, as EUR is oner of the underperfrormers.

Waht catches my eye here is a failure just above 1.0655. I also take a Look at a EURJPY chart and as alwats EURGBP to see what is driving the EURUSD.

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.05 looms

Yet another run at 1.05 where support is at 1.0496-1.0506.

[GVI Forex 2]

I ther look at currency charts where the action is.

When I see a sharp move in one direction in USDJPY there is generally an offset in another currency (in this case EUR and/or GBP)._

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

What catches my eye is the break of 154.52 (suggests using 154.50)… use it as an intra-day bias indicator

[GVI Forex 2]

I then quickly scan a gold chart to see if it is acting as a risk indicator.

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Risk indicator

XAUUSD acting as a risk off indicator and getting closer to its next target at 2675.

[GVI Forex 2]

I then look at stocks to get a feel for the risk on/off tone (currently risk off) and key levels

US500 1 HOUR CHART –  Support levels highlighted

[GVI Forex 2]

I then take a look at bond yields for any clues. There is some divergence with UK vs US and Ger yields but does not seem to be a factor right now as moves have been small.

10 year bond yields snapshot

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[Author]

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