Something to consider is the cycling of big money. Today they are buying Dow stocks ahead of a Friday with a US holiday and major Geo risk. That is driving some currencies down which would otherwise move in tandem, but the money is not as happy outward with those currencies as they are with a 2025 stock rally.
There should be a delayed reaction which would support the sell side of UsdChf and other safe haven plants beginning either in Asia or Europe tonight.
Euro will likely not receive the same benefit as Swiss (futures especially) and so I am not biting here on any bear trap setup, although I might in other conditions. Better play, at least for me is the buy side of Swiss itself and Yen itself.
I see the bear trap in Eu but I think it is advisable to stay on the sell side all the way up to 0560 for now until proven otherwise. Geo risk is strong enough to counter a speculative run at present.
JP – Clearly a lot of people got smacked calling a bottom at 10512. Have to think about Geo risk at that level and some people did not do anything but look at a chart and got smacked.
what is almost sarcastic play is the eur/dlr price action
sarcastic in the sence that IF one has not made posi-pips shorting the puppy from around the 1.06 price level
and with so many energy and magnitude indicators abounding
when else , under what other market situation, can one ever hope to “make it” trading FX ?
Yen futures are a buy all the way and currently pulling back, so the good play (obviously) is the sell side of Yen pairs in spot. Give it about 10pips or so in EurJpy if you missed it.
Another good day to anticipate lack of follow through on anything risk on related.
There have been 36 major geopolitical events since WWII. Result in markets is identical per Abigail Yoder -JP Morgan.
The US and Britain selling/training/authorizing Ukraine to use long range missiles into Russian territory is one of those events.
Today, for the first time, an intermediate-range ballistic missile was launched by Russia deep into Ukraine along with 9 other somewhat shorter range missiles. The 9 were shot down and the IRBM hit a house. Not a good military showing.
Also in Geo-news, the ICC (International Criminal Court) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and another Israeli official in what is widely perceived as a window into how corrupt the ICC is. The body is made of a batch of international representatives which include terror states. A laughing stock as bad as the UN.
The West is going to have to end the wars by itself. Again.