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[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps… usd lower … searching for any news

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures trended down all of last week (strength in UsdJpy).  What I would like to see is a drop toward 153.80 so I can get on the buy side again and if it holds so will I.

EurJpy is going in the opposite direction of UsdJpy and for many a good reason.  Fundamentals matter and Europe’s economic ideologies are failing again albeit gradually.  Socialism is a wonderful idea because not everyone can work and people need help.  It has never worked however.  Hopefully some better ideas come about in years to come.

The US is about to go on an economic eruption unless it is sabotaged.

[GVI Forex 2]

Following the choice of a new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, I have added an addendum to this timely article.

Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.

[SF Monedge]

I would just like to comment regarding the price behavior of Thursday and Friday of this week.

A lot of people were waiting to pounce on a perceived bottom in Euro, Sterling, Swiss, and EurJpy at what amounted to mass positioning at a 6 month low being run through by a very aggressive sword.

Even a lot of professionals were hit hard there when markets fired through it like an out of control train.

So the question many ask is .. well then what use are pivots and if you only go with momentum or a combination you still don’t know positively what the outcome will be so what do I do?

1.      Don’t become top and bottom happy.

2.      Don’t think momentum is the only way to go.

3.      Never convince yourself you are perfect if you go on a long win streak.

 

Answer: Pick those spots but be fleet of foot to adjust when necessary even when it means taking a small loss and immediately going with the reverse of what you thought would transpire.

I have been at this for a long time and have dealt with a lot  of CTA’s on a personal level.  I was one, albeit small.

If you wish to converse I am very receptive and helpful and can be reached through Jay with Global View by email.

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a light economic calendar in the coming week but it pays to look ahead after the way the EURUSD reacted to the weaker PMIs on Friday

NewsquawkWeek Ahead:Highlights 25 th-29nd November 2024

 

[GVI Forex 2]

So US tariffs are a done deal… what size, shape and on what countries/products are the unknown.

Will Trump & Co look to renegotiate USMCA or use the threat to tighten the border?

The United States, Mexico, and Canada updated NAFTA to create the new USMCA.

[GVI Forex 2]

President elect Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary

Mr. Bessent, the founder of the investment firm Key Square Capital Management, has emerged as a central economic adviser… Unlike many on Wall Street, Mr. Bessent, 62, has also defended the use of tariffs, which are Mr. Trump’s favorite economic tool….NYT

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Little Nio showing some teeth !

Now it has to take out first 5.00 and then 5.50 .

Once above, sky is the limit 😀

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

High so far 99.804,98 – few bucks short of 100K 😀

So what next ??

Technically speaking , it has more room to go – that upper trend line is at 108.285 right now.

Experience wise : we should see another 2-3 days of blow of rally…

Trading wise – it is about time to cash in on any further rally.

[SF Monedge]

Very simply Yen is in a buy cycle and UsdJpy is not.  I would love to see futures dip again to start next week for another solid entry in spot.  EurJpy is not moving with UsdJpy well and so for that one remains a good sell.  Maybe long term.  You really do benefit from at least paying attention to fundamentals.

[SF Monedge]

Yen options are mixed today all the way out to March.  Nearby is more on the sell side.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD came within 500 of 100K…. Seems just a matter of time?

3 out of 4 parts of the Trump Trade today

Firmer dollar
Firmer stocks
BTCUSD pushing closer to 100K
Bonds not joining in today

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures are sideways.

[SF Monedge]

Interestingly there was a span of 12 minutes where there was near zero change in the volume of advancing vs declining shares in the Dow before the turn of the hour and one would not think so on a Friday such as this.

[GVI Forex 2]

Best hope for EURUSD is a slight reprieve as next week is a big holiday one for the US that will make it a 4-5 day holiday for most. So not usually one to add on risk.

Otherwise, talk will likely buid for parity unless 1.0446=1.0500+ is regained.

[SF Monedge]

Moving forward in reverse I have been selling every uphill break in EurJpy all morning and overnight and I think the odds are improving the next one, if there is one, may yield greater returns than 15 pts each.  Maybe in around a half hour.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fedwatch

Odds on a 25 bps Dec rate cut stands 55/45.

If Fed does not cut, it would probably piss off President-elect Trump and his pro growth agenda.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART -8 down weeks in a row

EURGBP at .8310 says GBPUSD is being pulled along for the ride by the falling EURUSD.

It has been 8 down weeks in a row so until/unless this pattern changes, it will stay in a sell mode but dependent on EURUSD for direction.

Key focal point is 1.25, solidly below it would be needed to put 1.2444 and the 1.2298 2024 low in play.

1.0220/1.2298 = .,8310

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – FOLLOW UP TO PRIOR POST

NO CHANGE, MARKET IN SELL MOIDE UNLESS 1.0446+ IS RENEWED

ALSO, CHF REMAINS WEAKEST,

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0537 resistrance proving tough

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