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[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports : 1.05100 , 1.04650 & 1.04250

Resistances : 1.05500 , 1.05700 & 1.06100

Pattern wise : this is a possible situation of sharp turn Up – 1.06100 separates us from declaring it.

In case it works, target is in 1.07800 area.

If it fails to overcome 1.06100 , based on previous move’s angle – 1.01350 is what we’ll be seeing .

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY through 153.55… 153.23 remains a key level, below it a void to 152.00-10

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

CAD & MXN hit by Trump’s tariff announcement, US futures impacted but are back in the green; FOMC minutes ahead

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top

5 things you need to know for today’s market.

Trump announced he is to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products and will charge China ‘an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs’.

European bourses in the red on the above, US futures initially pressured but have since made their way back to unchanged/marginally firmer

USD began on the back foot but has since retreated markedly, JPY outperforms while CAD is the G10 laggard

Fixed benchmarks in the red pulling back from Monday’s gains though did see a shortlived move higher on the tariff announcement

Crude firmer but action modest after recent ceasefire related pressure; Israel’s Cabinet set to meet at 15:30GMT/10:30EST to discuss this

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Any speculation that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would adopt a ‘softly, softly’ approach to his trade and economic policies was jolted overnight as he warned of immediate tariff hikes on Canada, Mexico and China – hitting the currencies of all three.

Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico on day one until these countries clamp down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and undocumented migrants crossing the border. The move would appear to violate a free-trade deal with both countries that he negotiated during his first White House term.

Morning Bid: Trump tariff threat jolts Canadian dollar, peso, yuan

[GVI Forex 2]

Logic speaking

If traders were taking Trump’s tariffs threats seriously then bonds would get hit on inflation concerns… so far this has not been the case (US 10 year last at 4.291%)

[GVI Forex 2]

This is not a typical trading week as explained in the following

What to Expect in the Thanksgiving Day Trading Week

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – HOPE FOR THE BULL SIDE?

The bounce off 2607 (61.8% of 2554-2721) gives hope to the bull side that this was just a retracement.

To confirm, 2631 and then 2650 woud need to be regained.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bonds yields so far not giving any clues in a market where position adjustments rather than taking on fresh risk is typical of the US Thanksgiving holiday week.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – Tight range but for how long?

Range tightening to around 153.80-154.20 suggests 154 will be pivotal in setting its day tone.

While below 155 upside is likely limited but to suggest pressure building on the downside 153.55 and 153.23 would need to be broken.

Continue to keep an eye on US bond yields (lower this week to see if there is a correlation.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED

If you go strictly by the book, opening week gap filled and then a rebound

If you were trading in the heat of battle, the move back above 1.05 was a head scratcher.

In any case, 1.05 should continue to be the bias setter, only a break of 1.0530 would suggest more to this head scratching rebound.

Back below 1.0470 would shift risk back to 1.0425-50

[SF Monedge]

Sorry – UsdPeso and UsdSingapore were buy side and my bias remains so.

[SF Monedge]

I do not expect decent re-entry levels until at least 9PM Eastern time.

[SF Monedge]

I just closed sell side positions of EurJpy, EurUsd, AudUsd, UsdSingapore, and a buy side UsdChf right here, and a sell EurGbp all in the money.   These levels as I type are areas where I believe there may be adjustment flows and so it is back to a game of patience.  Prefer buy side of US Dollar and the sell side of everything else so a matter of waiting for these markets to rebalance a bit.

Had a sell USdPeso but did not fill, not confident we see decent re-entry levels until tomorrow.

Honor the Dollar.

[GVI Forex 2]

USD up. CAD and MXN slammed… USD spikes higher

Source: NewsquaWK.com

[GVI Forex 2]

This article is worth revisitimg during this US holiday thinned week

Time should be a factor you consider when trading and when ignored, it will leave you at the mercy of the market. What I mean by that is that you can put yourself in a position where your options are to take on more risk than you are willing to take if you ignore the time factor when trading.

Don’t Leave Yourself at the Mercy of the Market

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED

Opening gap filled and now what?

Range 153.50-155.00 with moves contained while within it.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TESTS SUPPORT

XAUUSD was not immune from position squaring that performed like a textbook by testing 2619 support.

This is the level along with 2607 (61.8%)  that need to hold to contain the retracement.

For 2554-2721

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART– GAP FILLED

Pause below the record 6029 high was followe3d by thje weekend gap being filled.

It now needs to stay above 5975 or risk a retracement. To open the door to a new record high 6000 would need to become support.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

As I warned last week, some heavy profit taking occurred on approach to 100K.

Now we have to see if 93.700 can hold it up, or it will be on the road to bigger correction.

The Rally that started in first week of November this year is about to give it up.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

NIO Cut to Sell From Neutral by Goldman Sachs

NIO stock has been stuck in reverse gear the past few months and the selling could continue into 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts said Monday.

[Author]

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