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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Only a retracement

As we have been saying, the EURUSD rebound should be treated as a retracement unless `1.0610 is taken out.

Stall at 1.0596 confirms this view.

For today, 1.05 will clearly dictate whether it can go after1.0455-75.

Current down momentum stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.

Only 1.0545-50+ would retore a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

The euro fell due to political uncertainty in France, where the government faces a no-confidence vote, while the US dollar strengthened ahead of a key week for US interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s decision on December 18 is expected to impact markets, with traders predicting a 66% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Global shares were lifted by tech stocks, and oil prices rose after Chinese manufacturing data, while gold sank under pressure from the strong dollar.

Euro slides, pressured by French political uncertainty

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yielfd opening higher after Friday’s ;atew day slump…USDJPY baCK above 150

[michael Calif]

Nov 14 re-post.   Law of Time remains Long Euro, Yen, and 10yr futures; buying any and all dips.    Option Profile gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Monday kicks off with final PMIs for November, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI expected to remain at a weak 43.2 and the UK’s at 48.6. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index may edge up to 47.6, still signaling contraction as concerns about weak demand and policy uncertainty linger.

Tuesday, South Korea’s inflation is forecasted at 1.6% annually for November after a rate cut last week due to economic slowdown fears.

Wednesday’s PMI updates for France, Germany, and the UK are expected unchanged, while the US ADP report forecasts private payrolls rising by 165,000.

Thursday, Eurozone retail sales should hold steady for October, while the US trade deficit is expected to narrow to $75.4 billion. Canada’s trade deficit is projected at C$0.65 billion.

Friday, Japan’s household spending is predicted to drop 2.6% annually due to sluggish demand, while US nonfarm payrolls may rebound by 200,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Canada expects a modest 30,000 job gain, with unemployment rising slightly to 6.6%.

Econoday

[SF Monedge]

In scanning headlines and journalistic pieces I see nothing which would ring risk alarm bells, despite conflicts overseas.  So if there are no dramatic events it seems this week could be a risk on environment even if not stellar.  I mentioned Friday I felt we are entering a stock picking environment for a bit and so that is how I am approaching the week until proven wrong.

That being the case there is potential for non-US Dollar currencies to benefit after an obvious sell cycle.

[GVI Forex 2]

There was a 2nd bite of the cherry with the EurJpy rally to 162 but the UsdJpy could not maintain 150 and so now there will be trapped longs in both pairs who will try to manage their positions Sunday night.

All I will say is “how is that working out for them?”

Now for those that either missed out or are looking for a bottom to buy I say

Beware of what you wish for

Latest USDJPY and EURJPY Updates From the Savvy Trader

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Ripple Surpasses Solana as XRP Price Hits 6-Year High Above $2

The impressive performance of Ripple’s native token continues with another surge in the past 24 hours that pushed its price above $2 for the first time since early 2018.

In the process, XRP has surpassed SOL to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Right now the main obstacle for Bitcoin is 98.800.00 – break of will open a road for test of 100K and further advances.

Close tonight above 97.200 would create a Bullish pattern for Monday.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports : 1.05550 , 1.05150 & 1.04750

Resistances : 1.05950 , 1.06100 & 1.06750

1.06100 still the main barrier for any run up

[Belgrade Bobby]

Week ahead -USDJPY Daily

Supports : 149.450 , 149.050 & 148.250

Resistances : 150.350 , 151.950 & 152.050

Monday morning – two options :

–          Test of 150.350 and then run for the new low

–          New low first and then run for the 151.450

[GVI Forex 2]

Came out on Saturday

Trump threatens a 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they abandon U.S. dollar

[SF Monedge]

Risk aversion is how I am approaching this weekend.

Swiss Franc  is a good idea.

[GVI Forex 2]

Big week ahead for US data with fu;ll previews

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights 2nd-6th December 2024

[GVI Forex 2]

All about bond yields

10 year 4.178%

[Belgrade Bobby]

ETHUSD – Ethereum

3540.00 is a very important level in this moment : if it holds, it will target 3.800.00

Below we have two important levels to watch :

3250.00 & 3060.00

This rally is already very late in the game, so watch out – should start a correction any moment….

[SF Monedge]

I won’t touch OPEN again until it drops.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio has to take out 4.70 to be able to establish a footing and start Up.

However, if it drops below 4.35 will immediately target 4.00

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Opendoor Technologies – OPEN

Declining trendline taken out – but Closed below – so do not jump on it – always remember : two consecutive closes…

Next hurdle is 2.55

As long as above 2.30 has a chance to continue Up.

[SF Monedge]

On Tariffs.

I could be completely wrong in my views on Tariffs but …

The Congressional Research Service notes that Trump’s approach to tariffs marks a departure from previous administrations, employing Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The Congressional Budget Office projects the 2025 deficit will approach $2 trillion. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s tariffs could reduce the deficit by about $200 billion, or roughly 10%.

The effect can benefit domestic companies by making  goods cheaper than imports and increase demand.

The US Trade Imbalance is almost 5 times that of the nearest deficit holder, Great Britain, almost 6 times that of France, and well over 10 times that of Japan.

The US Trade Deficit is enormous and out of control.

The current NAFTA agreement is out of balance as is the incoming USMCA agreement as is the BRICS agreement.

If the status quo remains intact the savings of US households will continue to deteriorate.

In 2023, China registered a trade surplus of over 823 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first among all countries and territories. The United States was this year’s largest source of trade surplus for China, with a trade balance of approximately 336 billion U.S. dollars.

Tariffs are expected to drag on the US Dollar.  The irony is that, if so, may also act as a buffer to any aggressive declines should they occur.  On the contrary, import prices could gradually increase.  But so could domestic producer prices and savings accounts.  There is no pure glass of milk in this.

The finances of the US are basically on borrowed money and borrowed time.  Federal special interest spending has been so insanely allocated to projects such as financing of child sex mutilation research in favor of special interest groups at a level that would make Dennis Rodman shake his head.

Something has to give.

[Author]

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