An aspect of price behavior I am perpetually dialed in on is what kind of valuations the market is presenting in the US session. Some weeks there are very good price levels presented and other weeks the optimum levels are presented in the European session, and at times the Asian session.
Two weeks ago there were optimum valuations presented in the US session all week long and your precision could be near perfection. Last week the condition remained good but was not optimum. So far this week the levels presented are gone before the US session.
Your participation has to take that into consideration. How do you approach that? Patience.
The next near term cycle for Sterling, Yen, Aussie, Euro, Peso, and Franc futures should be the buy side. The level of conviction on that side I would not expect to be overly robust.
Yen is a bit different. The BOJ interest rate decision is on December 19th. Japanese 10yr rates are now sitting at early July highs and after attempting to go higher stalled at the same spot on November 11th.
So if it stalls here again that is three stalls. One might think this is the tail end of pricing in and reaction to the last action by the BOJ.
Therefore calling a bottom in Yen futures (buy side top of spot pairs) is a bit dicey since the rates could drop and Yen futures with it.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Helped by a backup in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar has rediscovered its mojo ahead of a wave of overseas interest rate cuts this week, with China’s markets giving only a hesitant welcome to Beijing’s new policy orientation.