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[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Samuel Indyk

The stellar year for U.S. stock markets took a bit of a breather on Thursday, perhaps expected after a rally that has led the Nasdaq to 20,000 for the first time this week and the S&P 500 to another new record high.

Gains have been driven by optimism over artificial intelligence and rate-cut expectations, with attention now turning to the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of the year, beginning next Tuesday.

The central bank is likely to follow up November’s 25 basis point rate cut with another of the same magnitude, taking the fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.

But where the Fed plans to take rates in 2025 is what will interest markets more.

Morning Bid: Wall St near records as central banks end 2024 with rate cuts

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY DAILY CHART- Who’s driving the bus?

When you see 2 currencies move in opposite directions vs the USD you can assume there are real money flows driving the bus…. creating a tuug-of-war between USDJPY and EURUSD

This is the case today in EURJPY… key level is the daily trnedline (162.40)…watch shorter time frame charts f

[GVI Forex 2]

Today is Friday the 13th

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – VOID

6 up days, green candles in a row… void of key resistance until above 155… makes 153.50 a pivotal level along with 153.64 (61.8%)

Keeps a bid as long as 152.50-80 holds as support.

FIBOS (156.72-148.65) — note 61.8%

[GVI Forex 2]

Market is catching up to my thinking.. posted in our blog

While attention is on the December 18 FOMC decision, where a 25bps rate cut is widely expected, the focus should quickly shift to looking ahead. This is especially true if the Fed decision is viewed as a hawkish rate cut.

A Case for a Hawkish Fed Rate Cut Decision

 

[GVI Forex 2]

First thing I do when starting my day is to treat my platform as a heatmap to see where flows are going.

EURUSD steady as EUR up on key crosses (vs. GBP, JPY, CHF)

GBPUSD down – 2nd consecutive month of negative GDP

US bond yields steady but up sharply on the week… USDJPY and USDCHF up

[GVI Forex 2]

From an earlier Reuters article

longer-dated Treasury yields are headed for their biggest weekly rise in a year on receding U.S. rate cut expectations for 2025.

[GVI Forex 2]

From an earlier Reuters article

longer-dated Treasury yields are headed for their biggest weekly rise in a year on receding U.S. rate cut expectations for 2025.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy is heading for 153.20.  That value is a recuring price magnet which has been met many times.

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

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[GVI Forex 2]

10 year closing at 4.336%…pulling USD higher…USDCAD breaking the stubborn 1.4195 level

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – FAILURE?

Failure to break 6101 follow NAS to a new record high has left US500 vulnerable to a retracement but only a break of 6033 would confirm.

Note higher US bond yieldsw may have been a weigfht on stocks.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHARTT – MISSION ACCOMPLISHED THEN…

We have been citing 2721 AS THE NEXT TARGET AND A BRIEF RUN THROUGH IT DID NOT LAST.

This leaves 2674 as the level that needs to hold to keep the risk on 2721+ as a break would put an end to this latest episode.

In any case, back below 2656 would suggest a greater retracement risk. Otherwise esxpet some consolidation.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio came close to the support 4.40 – as I said yesterday …

Now let’s see if it can hold tomorrow – if not we are eyeing first the horizontal support at 4.30 and then drop to 4.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Failed today just below 2.5000

Momentum is lost – now struggle begins

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily ( Take me to the Moon 😀

Failed today at 102.650 .

In case it closes tonight above 99.550 it will have a chance to push Up again tomorrow.

Supports : 99.550 , 97.500 & 95.650

Resistances : 102.650 , 104.050 & 107.500

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Supports : 151.800, 151.350 & 150.800

Resistances : 152.850 , 153.200 & 153.950

Pattern – Bullish

If we get over 152.850 -we might see a run over 154.000 tomorrow

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports : 1.04600, 1.04250 & 1.03950

Resistance : 1.05300 , 1.05950 & 1.06150

1.05350 Pivotal within rectangle

ECB Cut – no real reaction.

[GVI Forex 2]

10 year 4.326% … fx follows

[GVI Forex 2]

10 year 4.326% … fx follows

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