Contact us

[GVI Forex 2]

House approves spending bill, Senate needs to confirm with just hours to act before shutdown deadline

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART –Watch the trendline

As I noted yesterday, NAS100 had not broken its uptrend and this remains the case as long as it holds its daily trendline.

So watch the trendline as it checks the downside as long as it stays intact.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Key levels

For me the only levels that matter are 5800 & 6000.

Having held 5800, US500 needs to regain 6000 to make this a short-lived correction.

[Anonymous]

EURUSD
https://www.ft.com/content/d91d35fc-93ab-4963-8587-7a00fe5c63b4

Europe leads the way Mario Draghi might bemoan Europe’s woeful securitisation markets, but SRTs is one area where the old continent has clearly led the way (yes, despite the “Wall Street” headline). In fact, the concept of such deals was enshrined in the EU’s regulatory framework through its implementation of the Basel II banking rule book in 2006, and in 2014 the European Banking Authority laid out detailed guidelines for them. As the EBA said at the time:

[GVI Forex 2]

If it wasn’t for the central bank surprises, the position squaring you are seeing today is typical of what typically goes on in the pre-XMAS week… as I indicated in

Trader Alert This is Not a Normal Trading Week

 

[michael Calif]

repost.  Euro Low.  current Nov-Dec low remains polar opposite to the July ’23 high; will this send Euro from 1.03-1.04 to 1.12 ….

[SF Monedge]

Very high odds Sterling tanks from 2600 in my view.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I noted today would likely be driven by thin liquidity, book squaring and position adjustments ahead of the holiday week. GBP and JPY have been beneficiaries, EUR, stocks and GOLD as well.

[Anonymous]

Is there a reason for the Stock Markets to print New historical highs?

Technically not. There is just one, that is Institutions start to pump another round of impressive leverage. Which but institutional players better don’t do now as It might be needed in case of extreme crises. They are already overly leveraged and full.

Hence here we are dealing with possibly complex Institutional Strategies redefining themselves as the new trading environment of the next months. It’s new Gamma walls and Collars and a totally new risk profiles in early definition, something we will be capable to start to see more clearly possibly around the beginning/end of January 2025.

Beside that am starting to notice algorithms are going against each other, loosing meaning – usability.
Purpose exhaustion of technological advantages of once.

Hence for the time being I would not chase markets.

Will watch closings later on, better. After the Witches go away.

Take Care

[GVI Forex 2]

Now it comes down to liquidty and end of week book squaring/position adjustments…. for EURUSD 1.04 is acting as a pivotal level… same for USDJPY 156.50 and GBPUSD 1.2550

Stocks catching a bid, note US500 bounce foff 5800.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

This is what I wrote on 12.12.2024. :

Pattern – Bullish

If we get over 152.850 -we might see a run over 154.000 tomorrow

Now do not get me wrong – I don’t want to show off or gloat !

I want to prove the point and share some insights as how I trade…

Continue reading….

[Anonymous]

War often leads to inflation

The fact that war and inflation often go hand in hand has been known for a very long time. Back in 500 BC Sun Tzu, Chinese general and author of a book on the art of war, observed:

“Where the army is, prices are high; when prices rise the wealth of the people is exhausted.”

[Anonymous]

Monetary policy and inflation in times
of war – BIS Paper 2022

https://www.bis.org/review/r220519f.pdf

 

[GVI Forex 2]

And in the US Trump wants to abolish the debt ceiling limit… at some point chickens will come home to roost but not until the bond vigilantes find their Mojo….

Meanwhile EURGBP .8278 … EURGBP 1.0387

[Anonymous]

France

3.300 billion: public debt reaches Its new peak

French public debt now stands at 113.7% of GDP at the end of September. In the third quarter, it increased by more than EUR 71 billion.

 

[SF Monedge]

DX 108 has not been seriously compromised yet.  I am changing my view from positive Sterling to the sell side very short term.  Bear in mind I am fleet of foot and have zero problem changing my stride.

My view on stocks looking out  is no real damage has been done and we are going to see a whopper of a bull run in coming months.  Commentary from another site supporting my view so far:

———

Equity funds saw their largest weekly inflow on record of $68.7 billion, while cash holdings and bond funds experienced significant outflows, according to a Bank of America report, citing EPFR Global data.

US stock funds led the surge with $82.2 billion in inflows for the week ending December 18, amid a bullish sentiment around domestic equities. Concurrently, $63.8 billion exited money market funds, and $6 billion left bond funds, while crypto attracted $3.1 billion.

US equities are on course for a record inflow in 2024, however, BofA flags “abnormally large daily inflows across all S&P 500 funds” on Wednesday, potentially due to the upcoming quarterly re-balance on Dec. 23.

Meanwhile, high-yield bonds posted their largest outflow since February 2023 at $3.7 billion, and municipal bonds saw their steepest outflows in nearly a year at $1.4 billion.

[GVI Forex 2]

Do the math

eurusd 1.0492

gbpusd 1.2547

eurgbp .8282

See now if .8280 holds

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Why it pays to pay attention to this cross

Double top at .8313… GBPUSD catches a bid as EURGBP retreats… EURUSD follows with A LAG

[GVI Forex 2]

News algos running a thin market… EURUSD high paused below 1.0420-25 resistance while GBPUSD leading as EURGBP retreats from .83+. causing the EURUSD lag

1.05 is pivotal in EURUSD

Next data Univ of Mich consumer sentiment

[GVI Forex 2]

PCE misses on downside,,,

[Author]

Posts