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[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

US futures modestly higher, USTs edge lower ahead of supply

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

Stoxx 600 edges a little higher, US futures trade either side of the unchanged mark.

DXY is essentially flat with price action ultimately rangebound in quiet newsflow.

USTs are slightly softer ahead of US supply; Bunds are closed for trade.

Crude oil holds an upward bias, base metals are modestly firmer.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows narrow ranges with the dollar a touch firmer.

EURUSD pattern: Extended its trade around 1.04 to 5 days in a row, currently below it…downside stays at risk as long as it trades below 1.0450\

Another round of verbal intervention in Japan

EURGBP ticking down after failing yesterday at .8313

US bond yields remain firm, 10-year just below 4.60%

Early closures today, including US stocks

Xmas tomorrow, most countries closed on Thursday, US markets open Thursday but likely with skeletal staffing

[Anonymous]

A very interesting review by Éric Dor, Chief Economist at IESEG, summarizing the exposure of French and European banks to French debt. French banks are naturally in first place, with very high levels of exposure

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Tip of the Week posted in the Global Traders Association (GTA)

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR – LOONIE TUNES

Don’t draw conclusions from prices moves at this time of year but the Loonie needs to establish above 1.44 and then take out 1.45 for theMAJOR 1.,4661 level to comew on the radar.

Below 1.4294 would negate the risk

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY – TRENDLINE

No change to what I have been noting…

Consolidating but keeps a bid as long as the trendline and 20615 support holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR – Holiday trading

 

The episode to the downside is over but needs to move through 5977 and then 6000 to put the 6101 record high back on the radar.

Otherwise pre-Xmas should see more position adjustments with bids below the market

[Belgrade Bobby]

December 17, 2024 at 9:18 pm

In reply to December 17, 2024 at 9:18 pm

Belgrade Bobby

Keymaster

(178.222.190.16)

BTCUSD Daily

It has finally reached 108K , and now might be the time for another correction…

Yeah – probably the only one with cojones to go out on the limb and declare it openly….

Supports : 92.100.00, 86.600.00 & 85.400.00

Resistances : 96.450.00, 98.150.00 & 100K

What we have now is not any more extremely Bullish – we can reach close to previous high on another attempt, but we need a solid and long ( time wise) correction.

Think of it now as a Range between 70K and 110K

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Still Bearish.

Resistances at : 1.04100, 1.04450 & 1.05100

Supports : 1.03850, 1.03400 & 1.03300

Pattern wise : Tomorrow another attempt down.

My opinion aside – patterns beat my opinions 3:2 – I am wary of Holiday moves and I can see it moving sharply Up….

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Is a correction over yet?

Support is at 2.01600 right now.

Major resistance at 2.34000

Pattern wise – this might turn into new Rally in a day or two.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

It needs to go over that MA – 4.50 – and to stay above it, if we want to see anything higher..

I am not going to talk sentimental now – this looks Bearish – like it or not.

Danger of 3.50 is still looming over it…

[GVI Forex 2]

Not sure how many follow my logic but this was a classic case… EURGBP .8305… EURUSD 1.0499

[Mtl JP]

28 days to inauguration
–
what odds do you give donald will make it into the w/h ?

[SF Monedge]

JP – Concur.  One would think that is how to approach things.  Largely out of curiosity and gymnastics I tend to pay attention to the other things somewhat.  But if we are not involved in some way then it is only for perception of the overall mood I believe.  Which at times is very valuable I have found.

[Mtl JP]

SF Monedge / all that I am looking for, from playing FX, is a personal reward in the form of posi-pips from my betting on the aggregate market sentiment / reaction to situations in society that may be non-balanced, extreme, radical or otherwise unsettling to the market.

The moral or vindictive or acerbic personal view aspect of a situation is an emotion I try to sideline and isolate from my trading.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURTGBP dips to .8307… EURUSD, loses its bid..)… ALgebra 101 trading

[GVI Forex 2]

Tug-of-war in EURUSD and GBPUSD from EURGBP,,, gving EURUSD a bid but holding so far

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD DAILY – LIFE IN CRYPTOWORLD

If it wasn’t BTCUSD falling 15% from its high, I would be shaken but this is like in Cryptoworld.

This is a classic case, though, of pre-Xmas trading dominated by position adjustments and book squaring rather than taking on more risk by adding to positions.

Otherwise, only a break of 90K would shake more bulls from the trees.

[Anonymous]

The fate of Macron depends on what happens with Francois Bayrou. If Bayrou fails, France will be on the brink of a constitutional crisis. The country is in a situation similar to the end of the Fourth Republic, when political instability was the result of parties dominating the scene with their improvisations and partisan bargaining. It is the reason why the Fifth Republic gave so much more power to the president. And yet even despite, or maybe because of, the president’s extensive powers, France finds itself in the same situation again.

There are still many unknowns of what to expect in 2025. What we know, however, is not very encouraging. Bayrou wanted to enlarge the majority, but he ended up with the same crowd as Michel Barnier. He promised to break the political deadlock with a new method but the only concrete proposals he put forward promise more deadlock instead.

Bayrou also rejected the idea of foregoing the use of Art. 49.3 to push the budget through without a vote in parliament. He may now have neither the Greens nor the Socialists ready to support him with a no-censureship agreement in parliament. MPs are already wishing back Barnier, even those who ousted him in the censure vote. Will the mood shift in the new year? Nothing is more uncertain.

[SF Monedge]

One of the few officials of the outgoing regime I would not fire is Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President.  Understanding some have valid reasons to disagree with me, I find her to be truly considerate in every way and able to visualize things in a smooth, broad, pinpointed and decent fashion.  She is able to make progress without it being a ridiculous dog fight.  And she is one of a handful of them that is not corrupted both mentally and otherwise.

[Author]

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