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[michael Calif]

JP – there is no time frame; Euro will rally until price & time next match up again at degrees on a circle  …

[Mtl JP]

rebalancing … when only giving and only taking:
–
Reuters
US disburses $3.4 billion in budget aid for Ukraine, Yellen says …
2 hours ago

[GVI Forex 2]

Rebalanciung still appears to be the driver of the stock sell-off as bond yieklds dip as well… EURUSD focus is back on 1.04 and on the downside after failing above 1.0450.

[Mtl JP]

re “will the Euro rally reach 1.12 from current 1.03-1.04 lows”
–
what is your timeframe for that ?

—
could is not will:
Next ECB rate cut could be longer in coming, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann says. The European Central Bank may delay its next interest rate cut due to a recent increase in inflation, which accelerated to 2.2% in November from 2.0% in October, surpassing the ECB’s target of 2%.1 day ago

[michael Calif]

daily futures.   repost.   price & time remain in sync; will the Euro rally reach 1.12 from current 1.03-1.04 lows …    gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Power of 50… EURUSD 1.0421 last vs 1.0458 high

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Monthly – End of the Year

EURUSD spent previous two years (2023/2024) quite undecided, even we had some tremendous shakings in the World, and lots of tremors.

For the first time I am going to take into account some heavy Fundamentals coming in and lots of speculation on the outcomes…

Continue reading HERE…

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks getting whacked… pre-yearend… bond yields down suggests rebalancing flows vs stocks

[Belgrade Bobby]

Perrie Como – Right on the Dot – and your posting is exactly why I wanted to add Like button to our forum !

So BIG LIKE

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Stalemate

Key range 2583-2652, needing to take out either side to break the stalemate.

Otherwise, a break of 2608 would be needed to suggest some downward mentum.

[Anonymous]

Europe (I see a huge academic cunning behaviour there), so many consultants selling the political tales in hope to trade them for hefty invoices.

Europe is rotten to the core.

Beside that Professional Politicians been progressively cleaned up now couple decades there. What is left… fanatics and other underground linked figures, the east particularly.

Europe is a continent that is extremely poor of raw materials as of energy resources. But our Elites seem never read history books.

That said see Yourselves

ING BANK STUDY UPON THE EURUSD FAIR VALUE
(emphasis on the part Energy and the EURO)

‘In other words, any views about a material recovery in the EUR/USD fair value need to go hand-in-hand with the assumption that energy prices will return not just to pre-conflict levels, but to 1H21 levels. Unless this happens, any EUR/USD strength from now on will have to rely on rate differentials above economic fundamentals, and will bring the pair well into expensive territory against our BEER fair value. In short, EUR/USD may not be as cheap as it looks.’

Analysis in Full here “EUR/USD: Not as cheap as it looks”
(and still is, ref. energy – consider in some places EUROPE citizens are paying bills about five times bigger than Americans. That is a surcharge of 500%!! No strange industries are closing one by one, and about half of the population has very difficult times)

https://think.ing.com/articles/eur-usd-not-as-cheap-as-it-looks/

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted in our Global Traders Association (GTA)

Trainmg Tip of the Week: Beware of a New Year Whipsaw

Register for GTA (free) and getr access to our tradiung tips, and mmore, includingn free enrollmentn in our weekly Prop Trading Challenge Giveaway

Register for GTA (free) and get access to our trading tips, and mmore, including free enrollment in our weekly Prop Trading Challenge Giveaway

CLICK TO LEARN MORE AND JOIN GTA

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted in our Global Traders Association (GTA)

Trainmg Tip of the Week: Beware of a New Year Whipsaw

Register for GTA (free) and getr access to our tradiung tips, and mmore, includingn free enrollmentn in our weekly Prop Trading Challenge Giveaway

Register for GTA (free) and get access to our trading tips, and mmore, including free enrollment in our weekly Prop Trading Challenge Giveaway

CLICK TO LEARN MORE AND JOIN GTA

[Mtl JP]

I am reminded of Louis L’Amour’s western tale: “Trap of Gold”

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0449 high so far

thin market , degenerate trading operators having a ball!

[Rafe]

DXY

This is the first time in many years that I have eyeballed the dxy charts, and I have never seen anything like this in decades. This has got to be one of the most powerful looking charts, as it is full of “brute strength” that it’s mind blowing!!!.

My projection is that it’s best to stay out of the way if not sure on directional flows (on individual pairs) which I forecast for sexy-dxy as upwardly without resistance to the moves other than just plain backing and filing.

Trump is the right guy for the next decade and I think he can run for office for another term although he has not yet attended the inauguration ceremony for his second time in office, and depending on his health I say he will win another consecutive term. Just don’t back stab him, if anyone got a problem then write him a letter and he will address the concerns immediately.

Strong dollar is here to stay!!

Asian pairs will fly like kites!!

With love,… 😉

Rafe…

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATRMAP shows:

Pre-end of year trading flows doiminating.

USD down a touch with commodity currencies so far outperforming.

EURUSD trading with a bid but so far staying below 1.0447-50

USDJPY tested just above 158, which remains the current line in the sand amid verbal intervention threats.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – KRY LRVRL CITED

It is hard to draw conclusions at this time as price action is driven more by end-of-year flows although generally there are some looking to position for the start of the new year.

EURUSD though has traded with a bid after breaking a 6-day pattern around 1.04 on Friday

See The Magic Levels Trading Pattern Strikes Again

With that said, resistance is clear at 1.0447, suggests using n1.,0467-50 as only firmly above it would postpone the risk to the downside and shift the focus back to 1.05.

[Anonymous]

Uh… so difficult is nowadays to tell anything. We are just observers of the whole, of an ocean of sharks and turtles. Of a crazy global soup decoupling.

As Artificial Intelligence is Hallucinating, so are Humans. Even those at very high levels are.

A World that to me seems about ending and another one, hopefully better, will come.
But this might take yet long time. Am not even sure we will witness It.

In between I’ll try to avoid to make forecasts the classic way, yet daily/weekly charts seem very strange, risky to me. Just observe the USD Idx.

What else. Debts never been so huge and at some point this will become unsustainable. Might take yet some that too, some say. But no more than one or two Years. Yet given recent from Yellen, we might be closer to there than most think.

Regarding Central Banks the neo-Wicksellian framework stipulates that economic instability cannot be eliminated but only minimised.
And this too is an euphemism, since we know at some point We are going to have a Minsky Moment.

Best Wishes in 2025

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off Monday is the US Chicago PMI for December. Forecasters expect the Chicago purchasers report to show regional business conditions remain dismal at year end with the PMI at 42.7 in December after dropping unexpectedly to a very contractionary 40.2 in November from an already bleak 41.6 in October and 46.6 in September.

The US pending home sales in November is expected to continue September and October’s recovery with forecasters looking for sales up 0.9 percent in November. Even though mortgage rates rose in November, a less pricey housing market was expected to lure more buyers in November.

On Tuesday, US Case-Shiller home price index for October is expected to continue its gradual slowing in the rate of annual home price inflation with the 20-city composite index up 4.6 percent in September, down from 5.2 percent in August and 5.9 percent in July. Forecasters now look for more slowing to 4.3 percent in October. The consensus also looks for a moderate 0.2 percent increase on the month after a 0.2 percent increase in September. US FHFA house price on the other hand is expected up 0.5 percent on the month after a larger 0.7 percent increase in the prior month.

Thursday, China Caixin PMI manufacturing is estimated to see firming to 51.6 in December from 51.5 in November. The Caixin index continues to outperform the official manufacturing PMI, which has barely broken above the 50 neutral level.

Manufacturing PMIs for Germany, France, UK and the Eurozone are expected to continue contracting in December. US is no different as the PMI manufacturing final for the US is expected to contract at 48.3, the same as the flash estimate for December.

Econoday

[Author]

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