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[GVI Forex 2]

More start of the yer… US bond yields lower despite pop in stocks

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP remainsa the underperformer… including vs the EUR…EURGBP back to .8300

[Anonymous]

All things Inflation – There am observing now some years already a systemic problem in our Food Supply Chains. This, among other things, will also hold prices higher – households poorer.

Not sure Wars are the answer, Yet by the Military Academic Standards, such a World – in classic terms – would inevitably fall into a 3d WW – which partly already is. Yet remembering Einstein, this is not the best choice in our current ever more complex state of the world.
E.g. just the other day Humanity printed a New Population Record of 8.09 billion.

Today’s Financial Times takes note of It with an article titled “Why goats are replacing cows in southern Africa”. But there are the collapse of many wineries in France too, and after a four years crisis there. But there are so many things…

In between we have noticed the problems already now some, but that only upon more “intelligent” media
as e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00543-6

And there not everything is told. If You remember Clinton and he’s statement supporting he’s Neoliberal Legacy that is now ending with Biden – THE ECONOMY IS STUPID – that created most of the nowadays Merchant Princes, the 1% or 10% and the others barely falling one by one.

Well I think the recent decades, the more obscure and cunning terrorist act that has been done is the exploitation of the Intelligence and Intelligent People.

If You wish to become rich You have to adapt to a stupid-sociopathic model.

Beside I don’t buy the Models predicting the Climate 50 or 100 years in advance. That’s stupid too, yet some of our Elite’s speculated heavy into that too. And We have now another stupid problem to solve.

Am optimistic by nature and I think We shall have yet some couple decades of stability, instead of mediated paranoia, take a deep breath and rethink our world for the better.

Which is not what they did up to now. The climate ever changed and will still change. We can’t modify It, because we will develop other damages and we are already. We can e.g. start to live differently.

And somehow We will. Europe will never be growing again, whatever they do or did. It was naivite’ of a class of leaders that are inadequate to the present complex world.

The few Energy Experts around say Its quite simple. The Energy Crisis, among others, simply means We are entering a NO GROWTH ECONOMY.

And so many years have been lost and too many bad guys have been running this show.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.

Don’t be fooled by what might prove to be a positive start to the new year, with stock futures pointing to a strong opening on Wall Street on Thursday.

For the last four years, the first trading day of the year has been a contrarian indicator, according to Deutsche Bank research, which notes the broad S&P 500 stock (.SPX), opens new tab index ended each year in the opposite direction it moved on the first day.

Morning Bid: The first trading day of the year, be wary

[Anonymous]

EUROPE – Energy Providers are already planning another 25% bills increase (among other many already seen)

Europe has a chronic problem with raw materials and energy. It’s the Continent that would suffer the more this Post Industrial Switch. Most Policies of EU been very naive’, from Energy to anything else.

Even the Political Philosophy of a Nations System, of the EU semi federal system, has been flowed by cunning academics, consultants and politicians. This by choosing Habermas and Derrida, which thought a sytstem of values based upon a world that does not exists anymore.

Rational observers say if EU would have been say social-democratic would have to choose John Rawls, but he is an american and europeans are too narrow minded to accept It.

Will they after the 2025 Crisis unfolds. Am not so sure of It

https://www.ilnordest.it/cronaca/guerra-russia-stangata-bollette-rincari-prezzi-energia-2025-effetti-ebgmuw4m

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – Up to start the year

Nice Start to the year for XAUUSD that wouLD need to regain 2650+ to shift the focus to 2700+

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART – 2024 low>

BEARISH WHIE BELOW 1.25

1.2444 REMAINING SUPPORT HEAD OF THE 2024 LOW t 1.2298

Bak BOVE 1,25 WOULD BE NEEDED TO POSTPONE THE RISK

[GVI Forex 2]

As I typed EURUSD taking the lead and busting through 1.0332… this along with 1.0350 are now pivotal in keeping 102 on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is how I look at EURUD

Broad range 1.02-1.05

1,0350 = MIDPOINT

Above 1.0350, range is to 1,05

Below 1.0350, 1.02 becomes a target

[GVI Forex 2]

Light US calendqar

Weekly jobless claims

S&P final manufacturing PMI

ISM PMI cpmes out Friday

See our Economic Data Calendar

[Anonymous]

The Big View – Sam Harris

Our culture has atomized: We’re all on our own with our phones, laptops, and digital media experiences. No one knows what everyone else is seeing. In some ways, these technologies have caused a shattering of culture, and we can’t seem to agree about our perceptions of the world, says philosopher and neuroscientist Sam Harris.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows the following

Outperformers (green arrows)

AUD

NZD

JPY

Underpe4rformers (red arrows)

GBP

Also US stocks up, GOLD up, BTC up

Opening day of the new year often sees profit taking vs fresh positioning.

[Anonymous]

The Big View – The End of Organized Humanity, Noam Chomsky

Part of the speech is focused upon the Energy Problem. Would remind the earlier posted analysis from INGs upon the EURUSDs fair value – energy considered – to be much below parity, somewhere from 0.95 to 0.75 – which will be probably seen in the first half of 2025 already IMVHO.
There are other factors at play as the restructuring of the EU, as other things.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – THE NEW YEAR BEGINS

The new year begins where the last one left off with EURUSD trading soft but consolidating.

Key target is clear at 1.0332, currently blocked by 1.0343 (double bottom).

The intra-day high at 1.0375 blocks a shift back to 1.04.

Speaking of 1.04, it came into today printing 1.04 8 out of 9 days in a row (exception was one day with a 1,0405 low). Assuming 1.04 does not print, this is a bearish sign so a downside risk as long as this level does not trade.

.NOTE the start of a new year can often see false starts and whipsaw type trading until full liquidity is restored.

[Anonymous]

Things to Watch, this early 2025: The Trump Trade

(btw I’d watch the EURUSD support at 1.0250 as a key level)

Small excerpt from link recap lower

Who are the potential losers?
The Mexican peso and Chinese yuan could get punished in the face of a rising dollar and potential Trump tariffs. In equities, potential losers include makers of electric vehicles and renewable energy products, because of Trump’s promise to roll back Biden’s green subsidies.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-trump-trade-is-back-what-it-means-for-investors/ar-BB1q9h3t

 

 

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0375

classic how do you feel punk about 3x top 3x bottom

[Anonymous]

European Central Bank President Lagarde says hopes inflation hits 2% in 2025
Lagarde in a New Years Day speech

 

 

Sounds as a EURUSD bearish stance from the ECB

[Mtl JP]

So Asia and Europe session traders have an opportunity to game, scam and romp the early ’25 market

lets see if they do

euro at 1.0349, usdjpy 157.19, eurgbp .8270

[Anonymous]

Forecasts for 2025 – Nostradamus

Unfortunately, the quatrains focused on 2025 are pretty dreary, bordering on chaotic.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/nostradamus-predications-2025-185644504.html

 

[Mtl JP]

Yaaaa-aaahh …. BUT which one will the FED choose ?
–
Opinion: The Fed has two bad options in 2025: accept higher inflation or risk a recession
El-Erian: Expect slower U.S. growth and higher Treasury yields — but America will continue to outperform other major world economies
By Mohamed A. El-Erian, Dec. 31, 2024

higher Treasury yields
for the record: 10-yr yielded 4.573 at last 2024 print

[Author]

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