USDJPY close below 158.04 would produce an outside day key reversl day (intraday range 158.87-156.27) but not sure how much to read into jt… so let’s call it a start of the year Freaky Friday
US yields still up on the day but backing off post data highs… fx trying to follow but…EURUSD holding 1.0273 (see earlier update)… see red arrow… like a textbook)
One job report, even if it misses, is not going to change the mind of Fed officials, epsecially with Trump and Co taking over with polcies that could fuel inflation…. but if it beat…
… With the national payrolls report potentially a decider on all the above, consensus expectations are for jobs growth to have softened overall in December to some 160,000 – with an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.
If that pans out, the Federal Reserve will likely feel justified with a stance of further cautious rate cuts ahead. Its policymakers have indicated just two more quarter point reductions for this year, even though futures markets price marginally less than that – some 41 basis points as of Friday and with the first 25bp not coming until June.
On Thursday, the latest Fed speakers tilted hawkish….
GV’s econ calendar indicates expectation (by experts) 160K new jobs
gated zh piece:
December Payrolls Preview: All Signs Point To A Miss
“The sweet spot for stocks is 100k – 125k: Too hot and rates will climb higher (which the stock market clearly doesn’t want) and too cold will quickly shift worries from rates to growth.”
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