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[Anonymous]

Also of note this upcoming week is France

 

France can’t stray far from 5% deficit – central bank head

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/france-cant-stray-far-5-deficit-central-bank-head-2025-01-08/

 

[Anonymous]

Winston Churchill is said to have quipped: “I only believe in statistics that I have doctored myself”. Reports in the media support this skeptical view of official statistics

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000259

[Anonymous]

Now an innovative study tested statistical data to reveal which countries have an incentive to falsify their economic figures.

[Anonymous]

The Bank of Japan is likely to revise upward its forecasts for fiscal 2024 and 2025 for core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices, at its monetary policy meeting this month. The bank plans to wait until the very last moment to decide whether to raise interest rates, according to interviews with multiple people familiar with the matter.

　　At the meeting to be held on the 23rd and 24th, the outlook for the economy and prices (Outlook Report) will be discussed and the latest forecasts will be presented. According to sources, the main reason for the increase in the core-core CPI outlook is the upward trend in food prices, especially rice. The weakening of the yen and the rise in crude oil prices will also be factors in pushing up the outlook. The trend of passing on wage costs to prices is also strengthening as expected.

After the news was released, yen-buying became dominant in the foreign exchange market, and the yen temporarily rose to 157.76 yen against the dollar. Before the news was released, the yen was trading at the 158.30 yen range.

The Bank of Japan has traditionally presented its price outlook in its Outlook Report using core CPI, but in light of rising geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy prices amid the COVID-19 pandemic, it has begun publishing core-core CPI as a reference since 2022 in order to better capture fundamental price movements.

　　Regarding core CPI, the government’s electricity and gas fee burden reduction measures will be resumed in January-March next year, which will cause a downward swing in FY2024 and an upward swing in FY2025 as a reaction <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

[Mtl JP]

Writes Yahoo’s Josh Schafer · Reporter

…”The biggest concern driving markets is that inflation doesn’t continue its downward trend toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Two key readings will greet investors in the week ahead on that front. Tuesday will bring a reading on wholesale inflation before the more widely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set for release on Wednesday morning.

Updates on retail sales, inflation expectations, and housing activity are also on the schedule.” …

[Mtl JP]

Who, pray tell, cares ?

UPI
President Joe Biden to give final foreign policy speech on Monday

[Mtl JP]

Perrie 6:53 / some recent headlines:
More than 60 German universities and research institutions leave X,
UK universities join retreat from Elon Musk’s X, citing misinformation on platform;
German government may yet quit X over algorithms, spokesperson says

there is some subtlety in those headlines

[Mtl JP]

Theme: Lets screw with markets’ heads
–
WSJ – Trump’s New Economist Makes the Case for 20% Tariffs
Stephen Miran, nominated to advise Trump, has suggested high tariffs could be the price allies pay for U.S.’s defense umbrella
By Greg Ip – Jan. 12, 2025 5:00 am ET

[Mtl JP]

wsj
A Bond Selloff Is Rocking the World. You Might Want to Take the Other Side.
A rare ‘bear steepening’ trade is pressuring governments and worrying investors
By Jon Sindreu, Updated Jan. 12, 2025 12:00 am ET

Personally I am not exactly against it as a trade idea. Others may have different view.

[Mtl JP]

8 days to inauguration
10-yr 4.763%

the lingering mood:
“Dow tumbles nearly 700 points Friday as strong jobs report casts doubt over Fed’s rate-cut path” – cnbc

[Anonymous]

Economic and geopolitical repercussions

Germany’s high electricity prices are leading to the relocation of its industry, as companies look for sites where energy costs are more affordable. How can you stay viable when you pay three times more for electricity than your competitors? (Natural gas prices are even worse: five times more expensive in Europe than in the USA.)

Whole swathes of Germany’s proud industry are collapsing. We only remember the big names — VW, BASF, Mercedes-Benz — but every big company that disappears or downsizes takes with it a myriad of small and medium-sized enterprises that end up collapsing along with it. Energy-intensive sectors such as metallurgy and chemicals are particularly hard hit.

Finally, Germany’s increased dependence on its neighbors for energy supplies has been creating tensions in Europe. High electricity prices in Germany are being passed on to neighboring countries, making electricity unaffordable there and generating growing frustration.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21244/europe-germany-renewable-energy

 

[Anonymous]

The main contribution to renewable energy has comes from wind power, at 31% of total production, followed by solar power at 12%, biomass at 8%, and other renewable sources such as hydroelectricity for the remaining 3.4%. In 2024, renewable energy accounted for almost 60% of German electricity production in the first half of the year. This production level, however, is smoothed out over a given period and does not reflect moments of crisis such as the “Dunkelflaute.”

Dunkelflaute

Literally “flat, dark calm,” Dunkelflaute is characterized by a simultaneous lack of wind and sun in winter, when demand for electricity in Germany is at its highest.

 

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21244/europe-germany-renewable-energy

[Anonymous]

Angela Merkel Wants Her Memoir to Save Her Legacy. It’s Backfiring.

In her book, the former German chancellor stubbornly defends decisions that have become increasingly unpopular, alienating even some of her allies

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/angela-merkel-wants-her-memoir-to-save-her-legacy-its-backfiring-509b30c5

[Anonymous]

February live cattle futures hit 198.775 cents/lb, the highest since Sept 2023, with other contracts at record highs

Drought, high grain costs and rising rates have shrunk herds as many US farmers cut back or exit the business entirely

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: 13-17th January 2025

Highlights include US CPI & Retail Sales, China Activity & Trade Data, UK CPI, GDP & Retail Sales, Aussie jobs, ECB Minutes

[GVI Forex 2]

Dear Members (if not a member join for free), we are happy to announce that Second Round of our Weekly Evaluations is STARTING at Monday – 13.01.2025.

Grand Prize is a Prop Trading Challenge Account – 15.000 $

Global-view.com Giveaway – Round 2

[Mtl JP]

Perrie 5:53 / zat eez a goodone , rofl

folks usually dont buy treasury IF the yield is dashits
coz they want to be compensated for percieved upcoming inflaation

[Anonymous]

Post-cold war peace ‘well and truly over’, warns David Lammy

 

 

(also USD bullish, beside It all)

 

Have a nice WE

 

[Anonymous]

We don’t need to worry about rise in borrowing costs, minister insists

[Anonymous]

Britain’s gas storage levels ‘concerningly low’ after extreme cold, says British Gas owner

[Author]

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